April 2013 Pattern and Discussion

[cloudcrash619]

Memphis could be getting close to record lows on Saturday. NWS is forecasting the Saturday morning low to be 39 and the record low is 38 set back in 1953. I think the last time we set a daily record low for any date was in April 2007...

[Met1985]

Looking at the GFS the weather coming up after this weekend looks picture perfect. Looks like no heat wave and looks kind of below normal for this time of the year.

[WilkesboroDude]

GFS for next weekend low temps:

Upper 20s for MTNS

low 30s for foothills

mid 30s for Piedmont

[superjames1992]

The cold shot at day 10 on the 00z Euro meant business...

 

[dsaur]

Well, I believed the last cold  back a ways, and I've believed in the end of the week cold since it was at 14 days, so I see no reason to disbelive in an early May surprise cold push, or two.  Just seems like that kind of year.  I'll have high hopes for the summer if the rain keeps coming.  I'd love some good old fashioned, cool things off, big afternoon boomers.

  I was stunned to read people saying they never have seen big hail, or never seen it but once, or just marble sized hail.  When I was a kid you'd get way more ice in the summers than you ever did in winter   That crap that comes thru with a tornadic squall line is anguished, possessed hail.  The stuff you get in an old fashioned Ga afternoon thunderboomer is fun hail.  It piles up and adds to the 50's you already have, and you go get a flannel shirt, and try to sled Great relief after 90's and high humidity.  If it rains every day, you don't get the worst of the heat.  It never gets to build.  There is always a burst of cold wind from somewhere, about mid/late afternoon.  But those days are off hiding with super cad winters, so who knows if you'll ever get to see them.....be nice if this is the pattern setting up now for both.   T

[metalicwx366]

Well, I believed the last cold back a ways, and I've believed in the end of the week cold since it was at 14 days, so I see no reason to disbelive in an early May surprise cold push, or two. Just seems like that kind of year. I'll have high hopes for the summer if the rain keeps coming. I'd love some good old fashioned, cool things off, big afternoon boomers.

I was stunned to read people saying they never have seen big hail, or never seen it but once, or just marble sized hail. When I was a kid you'd get way more ice in the summers than you ever did in winter That crap that comes thru with a tornadic squall line is anguished, possessed hail. The stuff you get in an old fashioned Ga afternoon thunderboomer is fun hail. It piles up and adds to the 50's you already have, and you go get a flannel shirt, and try to sled Great relief after 90's and high humidity. If it rains every day, you don't get the worst of the heat. It never gets to build. There is always a burst of cold wind from somewhere, about mid/late afternoon. But those days are off hiding with super cad winters, so who knows if you'll ever get to see them.....be nice if this is the pattern setting up now for both. T

Do you receive hail every year in your backyard? I have only seen it one time. I have never seen it accumulate before.

[jburns]

Do you receive hail every year in your backyard? I have only seen it one time. I have never seen it accumulate before.

 

It's an experience.  The ground can get completely covered in just a couple of minutes.

[dsaur]

 Not anymore, MetalMan.  Used to see it a lot.  But it is really more of a thunderstorm/summer deal, and we don't get those anymore.  Used to get boomers every afternoon, so the chances for some hail were better.  And most times it's just fun...not particularly destructive...just a few minutes of ice that lasts an hour, and is scattered around.  But occasionally you'll see 3 or 4 inches...enough you can sled on, if it wasn't so big, and if it was stuck together, lol.  But those are small hail too, mostly. Saw that in Hampton in the last 10 years or so.  Topped the hill just after the racetrack and here it came.  Probably 4 or 5 inches in just a few minutes.  Everybody just stopped in the highway.  It was smaller than marbles.  And narrow in scope.  Less that a quarter mile south to north.  Probably a good bit less.  YOu just have to be in the right place at the right time.

    I've seen golf ball within the last few years.  Just got my new car and was caught out in it in Lovejoy.  But it didn't last long.  I was in Hampton back in the 90's and some baseball stuff fell.  I was in the car, as usual when it's big.  Got under a huge oak tree, and it still was pounding me like a sledge hammer.  It lasted about 3 minutes, but seemed like 10.  I was sure it would bust the windshields.  That was something to sit and watch ice baseballs falling like a pretty good snow fall.  Every thing white with movement....across all the planes of space out in front of you.  But it's huge killer ice balls, lol.  Once was enough of that.  Plus when it's that big you know the ef 5 could be real close   No whirley with that though.  Not overly much wind, just the big bonkers. A friend who had just pulled out of the driveway, said he never saw any hail at all...so it might have been just for my enjoyment   Just got to be in the right place at the right time to see weather stuff   I used to think everybody saw this stuff all the time, until I got on this board and found out how unusual stuff can be.  But oddly, I've found a lot of people have seen thundersnow, and I've only caught that once.

  When I was a kid we used to see hail a lot.  Wasn't anything unusual, except you knew the intense part of the storm was on you.  When I moved down here in the early 80's we went right into drought, and I haven't see many damp years since.  Things just seem more intense, but short lived, whatever they are.  Used to get a lot of fronts in summer, bringing instability for afternoon boomers.   And there wasn't all the super intense heat we get now.  Summers weren't the misery they are now...well, at least not this high on the misery scale, lol.

  That's why I'm liking this cooler spring with the fronts.  Could be onto something...and I picked up another .6 watching the Masters, so it beats a lot of past years already for rain.  That's a total of 1.7 in the last two events....and recent years I wouldn't see that in two months of events.   I've been measuring my rain events in 100's and 10'ths   As have you.  T

[Isopycnic]

Do you receive hail every year in your backyard? I have only seen it one time. I have never seen it accumulate before.

Hail is a common occurrence here in central NC and normally just pea sized. Even on LI we had hail at least once a year.

One 4 of july it hailed for 1.5 hours and hailed with big chunks but never really rained heavily. Afterwards the ground fog was intense. I also have seen feet of hail accumulation near Dallas back in the 80's

[WidreMann]

Hail is a common occurrence here in central NC and normally just pea sized. Even on LI we had hail at least once a year.

One 4 of july it hailed for 1.5 hours and hailed with big chunks but never really rained heavily. Afterwards the ground fog was intense. I also have seen feet of hail accumulation near Dallas back in the 80's

Common maybe where you live. I've seen it maybe 3 or 4 times in my entire life.

[Jon]

Common maybe where you live. I've seen it maybe 3 or 4 times in my entire life.

Same..I've lived in Raleigh, more specifically between Raleigh and Durham and I've only seen hail twice and I've never seen large hail in NC (golfball sized or so)...I've only seen large hail when I lived in Houston, Texas.

[Isopycnic]

Common maybe where you live. I've seen it maybe 3 or 4 times in my entire life.

maybe I shouldn't run out to look at every storm.

[jburns]

maybe I shouldn't run out to look at every storm.

 

If you get hit in the head with hail it can cause brain damage........oh sorry.

[frazdaddy]

I saw hail in Cary and Wake Forest at least three times last summer

[Met1985]

Looks like the Southeast is going to be in for below average temps through the rest of the month into May according to the Euro weeklies.

[jburns]

Looks like the Southeast is going to be in for below average temps through the rest of the month into May according to the Euro weeklies.

 

Still pretty nice this time of year.

[mahantango#1]

Looks like the Southeast is going to be in for below average temps through the rest of the month into May according to the Euro weeklies.

just great my wife an I are going to Hilton Head Islsnd on April 26 for a week. Hope its not too cool.

[Met1985]

Still pretty nice this time of year.

Oh ya beautiful for this time of the year. Great spring weather

[dsaur]

Some of these days have been a liittle too warm for me.  I'd rather see the highs hang in the 60's.  These 80's feel too  much like 90's.  But the nights have been great, except for a  warm one.  All in all, stable air, cool nights, most days reasonable....I like it.

  Now if we can just get the cool fronts to continue into summer, with some summer boomers, and big downpours, we'll be shiny!!

[GaWx]

Folks,

 I'm not sure how much it is worth accuracywise since it is still pretty far out in GFS sucky lala land, but FWIW, the 12Z Wed. Goofy has a large area of lows in the 35-40 range in the well inland SE US for 4/26-7. I know Tony and myself, among others, would love for this to just come close to verifying, but even close is far from reliable at days 9-10 of Goofy. Also, its pretty significant cold bias must not be forgotten. I advise that the reader stay tuned to this BB for more fcast details as they evolve.

[dsaur]

Oh, I'm all over this Feb. in April scenario!!  The 23rd looks like sleet for me, if....if, the gulf low that was there the other day comes back, and ...if, the low can drag in the cold air further down Ga.....and, if......a super cad sets up and funnels in the reinforcements....then, man, we've got something!! 

  Well, at least it will get cold a few more times...to include maybe early May.  Hey...it could happen

  Hope you've been enjoying the ice cream, CRodes, lol.  T

[GaWx]

Folks,

 I'm not sure how much it is worth accuracywise since it is still pretty far out in GFS sucky lala land, but FWIW, the 12Z Wed. Goofy has a large area of lows in the 35-40 range in the well inland SE US for 4/26-7. I know Tony and myself, among others, would love for this to just come close to verifying, but even close is far from reliable at days 9-10 of Goofy. Also, its pretty significant cold bias must not be forgotten. I advise that the reader stay tuned to this BB for more fcast details as they evolve.

 

 What is the old saying? The cold-biased Goofy giveth and the cold-biased Goofy, as usual, taketh away. Yesterday's 35-40 for the lows of 4/26-7 for much of the well inland SE US have been replaced mainly by 50's in today's 12Z Goofy. What will tomorrow's 12Z Goofy bring? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available.

 In the meantime, it does look like there will be very pleasant 40's for lows and 65-72 with low humidity for highs in many areas this weekend and a good number of days next week: fantastic walking wx! Enjoy it!

[GaWx]

Folks,

 Good news if you don't like heat. The brand new Euro weeklies have below normal temp.'s for the SE US for all four weeks, which goes through 5/19! Let's see if it verifies correctly. Tony, don't dance in the streets quite yet lol.

[Met1985]

Looks like on the Euro things are going to stay cool just like Larry has mentioned. So nice for this time of the year. Complete difference from last year.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 What is the old saying? The cold-biased Goofy giveth and the cold-biased Goofy, as usual, taketh away. Yesterday's 35-40 for the lows of 4/26-7 for much of the well inland SE US have been replaced mainly by 50's in today's 12Z Goofy. What will tomorrow's 12Z Goofy bring? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available.

 In the meantime, it does look like there will be very pleasant 40's for lows and 65-72 with low humidity for highs in many areas this weekend and a good number of days next week: fantastic walking wx! Enjoy it!

Wish it would last all summer. Can't stand lows in the 60s and 70s. This weather feels so refreshing.

[dsaur]

Folks,

 Good news if you don't like heat. The brand new Euro weeklies have below normal temp.'s for the SE US for all four weeks, which goes through 5/19! Let's see if it verifies correctly. Tony, don't dance in the streets quite yet lol.

Shoot, I'm already dancing.  I got another .6 from the recent showers.  That makes 1.6, .6, and .6 from the last three events.  In past years that would be .02 for all three, lol.  Plus, I got readings of 37, 38.4, and 39.3 from my three remotes last night. Not too shabby for late April.  Get some more flannel shirt weather for the next 4 weeks, and I'll be shiny indeed!! 

  Larry, your winter begins in March prediction has got to be your best yet, and I look forward to your thoughts on next winter.  I hope to wake up from one of these cool nights sleep to find it's Sept and the predictions are coming soon   Tony

[Met1985]

Well by the looks of it both the Euro and the GFS have good shots of rain right through the first of May and well below average temps the this time of the year. This spring has really been perfect weather.

[icebreaker5221]

Well by the looks of it both the Euro and the GFS have good shots of rain right through the first of May and well below average temps the this time of the year. This spring has really been perfect weather.

 

 

Pretty good consensus on the models for cold mid- to upper-levels in the 7-10 day range.  Probably a bit early to speculate how cool the surface will be, but a win either way: either it stays cloudy, the boundary layer is cool, and we get comfortable weather; or the boundary layer heats up and we get widespread afternoon thunderstorms.  Either way beats having a SE ridge this early. 

[Met1985]

Pretty good consensus on the models for cold mid- to upper-levels in the 7-10 day range.  Probably a bit early to speculate how cool the surface will be, but a win either way: either it stays cloudy, the boundary layer is cool, and we get comfortable weather; or the boundary layer heats up and we get widespread afternoon thunderstorms.  Either way beats having a SE ridge this early. 

I agree 100%! This spring weather is much better than the past two years when we were baking in 80 plus weather and humid as can be. Both models still look cool and rainy.

[metalicwx366]

I agree 100%! This spring weather is much better than the past two years when we were baking in 80 plus weather and humid as can be. Both models still look cool and rainy.

Yeah next week is looking much wetter on the models. I should have storms in the forecast everyday next week looking at the GFS. Im loving the much much rainier spring this year rather than the extreme drought conditions last year.