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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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Day 3 slight risk: 2y3ybavy.jpg SPC AC 310756 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL TSTM AREA ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... A MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ARE PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY AS MUCH AS 35-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. ... ..GUYER.. 05/31/2013

 

Day 3 isn't really the medium range, just sayin' ;)

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Day 3 isn't really the medium range, just sayin' ;)

I didn't know if it was worthy of it's own thread just yet. Maybe tom can move it since he hasn't had to do anything green tag wise in forever....

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Tony, thanks for the post. I think I also like the idea of a late summer warm anomaly. I'm not sure yet how extensive it will be but August could be most of the northern-tier of the CONUS while September is more RNA-styled. Looking like a stormy first half!

 

So when should we expect NC to see a landfalling tropical system this year?

 

I love when you throw these comments in lol

 

Anyhow, it's nice to see a summer discussion spark up. Looks like were setting up a home base for heat in the Plains/Intermountain West in the next couple of weeks. I'm not seeing any major signals of pieces breaking off into the Northeast though. even noting the impressive -AAM signal going on right now.

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I love when you throw these comments in lol

 

Anyhow, it's nice to see a summer discussion spark up. Looks like were setting up a home base for heat in the Plains/Intermountain West in the next couple of weeks. I'm not seeing any major signals of pieces breaking off into the Northeast though. impressive -AAM signal going on right now though.

Given the -AAM/MJO stuff, seems like we ought to get a West Coast/Rockies trough around the 20th or so? Central Plains severe with some heat in the East?

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Given the -AAM/MJO stuff, seems like we ought to get a West Coast/Rockies trough around the 20th or so? Central Plains severe with some heat in the East?

 

I quoted HM's post from the Summer thread, but posted in this thread for some reason  :wacko:

 

 Ive always just taken the low AAM as a signal there could be a west coast trough and heat risk downstream. But looking deep into the AAM is not my strongest subject to be sure, and I certainly don't have a very good feel for predicting how the GWO stuff is going to orbit on the phase diagram..but if you used the 2mT composites below, then it appears the phase 1-2 worked out very well as a pattern indicator at the end of may...Going forward here the pattern on the ensembles with heat in the central doesnt seem to match anything else there nearby, except maybe 7, but we are not ending up there anytime soon, that I'm pretty sure of.. 

 

gwo_air2m_comps.gif

 

Troughing does look to arrive on the West coast next week though, but I assume youre implying further eastward into the Rockies by the 20th? I guess I could see that happening, but I'll be trying to look deeper into everything tomorrow. 

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Don't see much in the teleconnections with the MJO. Kinda fizzles after this week, imo. Looks fairly progressive with little in the way of obvious "unusual" forcing. Warm followed by cool followed by warm. Rinse and repeat.

 

The CPC expert on MJO did a teletraining session yesterday. While he had to go from the start for everyone, he had some medium range model skill scores he talked about. When we get on the other side of Andrea, I'll post it. 

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The CPC expert on MJO did a teletraining session yesterday. While he had to go from the start for everyone, he had some medium range model skill scores he talked about. When we get on the other side of Andrea, I'll post it. 

Cool stuff. Im assuming that was some coordinated workshop between NOAA offices?

 

On a severe weather note for the 1-2 week time frame, looks like we could see an interesting MCS pattern set up with heat anchor in the central/southern u.s..Could set up south of us though

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Cool stuff. Im assuming that was some coordinated workshop between NOAA offices?

 

On a severe weather note for the 1-2 week time frame, looks like we could see an interesting MCS pattern set up with heat anchor in the central/southern u.s..Could set up south of us though

 

Yeah one of those teletraining sessions. Really should have been two hours or two parts, he covered alot of info in that hour.

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I thought the most interesting part was when does the skill in the MJO drop out in the medium range models.  GFS was about day 12. Ukmet he felt was ranked 2nd. Euro was number one and normally averages 3 to 4 weeks (their outlooks?) before there was no verifiable skill.  I havent looked at them, but he said the CFS2 has skill out to 20 days. The longer MJO periods tend to produce better teleconnections (PNA biggest impact) in the mid latitudes. He also showed how the non-COD progression from Phases 5 to 7 drove changes in the winter time to the NAO.  

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