CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 All of this still holds. Expecting -u winds to fully take over at 10 hpa around 5/5 or so. No crazy southern Plains anticyclone in sight and cold air dominates. Later than normal peak for "tornado season" still seems reasonable given all the players. Over in the Central Subforum, there is talk about maybe something around the 10th or so that comes ahead of something more favorable down the road. This has a lot to do with how the cutoff behaves, so low confidence. We were just talking about this at work. You are still going to have that lingering hangover effect from snowpack-->melting snow-->soil moisture and lingering colder air aloft, but the heat will build later this month as it always does when climo forces jet retreat north. Maybe late May/June FTW? Edit, probably wrong subforum...but you had me thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Big time drop in the price of natural gas yesterday due to the recent report of a surplus of fuel-storage. http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-advanced-chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Any chance of Bermuda high's this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Big time drop in the price of natural gas yesterday due to the recent report of a surplus of fuel-storage. http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-advanced-chart what affects gasoline, oil prices per barrel im assuming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 just looking at that image, should start to see some warmer temps with southwesterly flow begins. Looks almost like a bermuda high setup, minus the gfs's cutoff from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 euro now for next week looks like what the gfs has been showing for days with slow moving low pressure bringing unsettled weather for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 2 days with variable clouds and showers.. Doesn't look al that bad really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 2 days with variable clouds and showers.. Doesn't look al that bad really Really amazing considering the high position all week. I love these busted forecasts when I get the synoptic pattern right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Wasn't this week actually expected to be rather dreary and a little chillier? Maybe we'll luck out next week again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Wasn't this week actually expected to be rather dreary and a little chillier? Maybe we'll luck out next week again. ...or we'll pay the price for this nice week of weather and have a crappy week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 i can live with crappy mid week at the office weather as long as the weekends are like last weekend and one coming now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Really amazing considering the high position all week. I love these busted forecasts when I get the synoptic pattern right Yeah really, what a week. We've had onshore flow every day but the lack of moisture in the low levels w/ this low dewpoint airmass has allowed for predominately clear skies to coincide w/ the NELY/ELY flow. Crazy stretch of sunshine and near normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Really amazing considering the high position all week. I love these busted forecasts when I get the synoptic pattern right Careful, you're starting to sound like JB in your old age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 The MJO has picked up big time in amplitude over the past week as it rounded back over the Indian Ocean: Will another honking ridge develop over the North Pacific as did previously mid-April? By the looks of things, we are starting to see some good mass dispersion towards the poles where convection is being organized/enhanced by the MJO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Careful, you're starting to sound like JB in your old age Haha, I know. Such are the perils of medium range forecasting. At least I admit when I bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 The MJO has picked up big time in amplitude over the past week as it rounded back over the Indian Ocean: Will another honking ridge develop over the North Pacific as did previously mid-April? By the looks of things, we are starting to see some good mass dispersion towards the poles where convection is being organized/enhanced by the MJO: Mike, by looking at that 200hpa map, looks like phases 7-1 for the first 15 days of May? The overall scheme would correlate to generally normal to below over the east? Those composites also show the continuance of a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Looks like there could be a quick burst of warmth late next week. all data seems on board, though im not not sure the MJO argues for a meaningful heat surge just yet by that point. 1-2 days with maybe our first legit severe threat as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Will this MJO wave have any warming potential of the ENSO regions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Pretty impressive cold shot in the medium range being advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Anyone else thinking the period centered around May 20th could feature our first widespread 90s? The positive NAO/AO will persist with lower than normal heights up in the Arctic through mid May, and after we see our powerful but transient cold blast early next week (12th-13th), warmth should begin to build in the Mid-west. It's progression eastward might be muted a bit at first. Few weeks ago I was thinking May 15th or so for the first "hot shot" but it may wait until the 20th for the coastal Northeast. MJO progression / timing would mean phase 5-6 in approximately 15 days which is a warm signal for the OH Valley/Northeast overall. This coupled w/ the positive AO/NAO modality could make for a potentially warm to very warm mid/late May. GFS Ens also like the idea of higher than normal heights taking over the CONUS post May 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I was thinking this same thing..; The cold blast will be powerful, but I agree with your timing on it as well. Anyone else thinking the period centered around May 20th could feature our first widespread 90s? The positive NAO/AO will persist with lower than normal heights up in the Arctic through mid May, and after we see our powerful but transient cold blast early next week (12th-13th), warmth should begin to build in the Mid-west. It's progression eastward might be muted a bit at first. Few weeks ago I was thinking May 15th or so for the first "hot shot" but it may wait until the 20th for the coastal Northeast. MJO progression / timing would mean phase 5-6 in approximately 15 days which is a warm signal for the OH Valley/Northeast overall. This coupled w/ the positive AO/NAO modality could make for a potentially warm to very warm mid/late May. GFS Ens also like the idea of higher than normal heights taking over the CONUS post May 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Isotherm. The only thing I would be worried about would be more BDFC's. 12z gfs op was hinting at that possibility, and wouldn't be too far fetched as that has been an issue this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Anyone else thinking the period centered around May 20th could feature our first widespread 90s? The positive NAO/AO will persist with lower than normal heights up in the Arctic through mid May, and after we see our powerful but transient cold blast early next week (12th-13th), warmth should begin to build in the Mid-west. It's progression eastward might be muted a bit at first. Few weeks ago I was thinking May 15th or so for the first "hot shot" but it may wait until the 20th for the coastal Northeast. MJO progression / timing would mean phase 5-6 in approximately 15 days which is a warm signal for the OH Valley/Northeast overall. This coupled w/ the positive AO/NAO modality could make for a potentially warm to very warm mid/late May. GFS Ens also like the idea of higher than normal heights taking over the CONUS post May 15th. LOL. See my avatar change May 12-15 is a little earlier than I was timing it, but I was thinking around the 20th seems like a reasonable shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Something to keep an eye on is that this MJO event is forecast to spawn twin Indian Ocean tropical cyclones over both hemispheres in the upcoming week. First, this suggests to me there could be less tropical forcing on the extra-tropical circulation since most MJO-convection will likely be transferred into the TCs. However, the TCs could influence extra-tropical circulation in there own right, especially if the Northern Hemisphere TC is strong in nature and extra-tropically transitions as it recurves to the north and east. I'm worried for potential model-drop out skill here, especially over the U.S. in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Well let's hope this time our call actually verifies at the surface! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 will we ever get a clean ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 will we ever get a clean ridge? With southeasterly flow? Because last week's with northeasterly flow was pretty clean. In any case, I think things are setting up for a shortlived period of Bermuda high influence around the 20th and it makes me happy that isotherm is along for the ride too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 How long is shortlived? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 7, 2013 Author Share Posted May 7, 2013 Is anyone worried about the NAO going negative? In about 6 to 10 days, -u anomalies will be attacking the polar latitudes from 2 sources: the final warming's polar vortex destruction and the poleward AAM anomalies. The final warming originating at 1 hpa is a little less typical than the usual starting point (10 hpa) and doesn't have the same correlations with the NAO/AO as the 10 hpa warmings do. Either way, if we see an enhancement of westerly 30-40N flow and easterly around 60N, there could be issues with getting any warmth sustained for us through early-mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 With southeasterly flow? Because last week's with northeasterly flow was pretty clean. In any case, I think things are setting up for a shortlived period of Bermuda high influence around the 20th and it makes me happy that isotherm is along for the ride too. by "clean" i mean one without a cutoff underneath it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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