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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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Thanks ray I didnt know that 540 doesn't cut it in april. What about the other critical thicknesses like the 850 line does that not cut it for april snow either? As always you are on point with the stats for april and since its been 11 years I'd agree with Kamu and say the law of averages is more in our favor than against us getting an April snow.

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With a couple of exceptions April since 2002 has been quite toasty, 2003 & particularly 2007 were below AVE. Coincidentally those are only times during that period locally which I've recorded measurable snow, most recent was 4/16/2007 when the 4/15-16 deluge ended as snow. I had 0.5" at the previous Feasterville location however the higher parts of the city, Roxborough & Manayunk, rec'd 2-3".

 

 

 

 

post-1715-0-37957500-1395930193_thumb.jp

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Helluva ending to winter/March overall to the folks S/SE of Philly...

 

 

"Statement as of 10:30 am EDT on March 27, 2014

... Record low temperature set at Atlantic City, New Jersey...

a record low temperature of 12 degrees was set at Atlantic City,
New Jersey today. This breaks the old record of 16 set in 2001."

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It snowed on my wedding on April 8th, 2000. We were at a place near the PA/DE state line on Rt 52. I think i remember at least a couple of inches sticking to grass...

 

Congrats?  Was it this one? (from Rays' site): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/09-Apr-00.html

Although it looks like the snow was primarily on the morning of the 9th (Saturday).

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While snow certainly can happen in April, its relatively uncommon.  At both PHL and ABE, the probability of an inch or more of snow in any given April is about 17%.  That translates to 22 times in 130 years at PHL and 14 times in 81 years at ABE. 

 

When glancing at the models looking for snow threats, another thing to keep in mind is that the critical thicknesses don't mean quite the same during April as they do in mid-winter.  Typically in mid-winter, you first tend to look for that 540 dM line on the 1000-500 mb thickness charts (usually shown along with sea level pressure and QPF).  By this time of year, 540 usually doesn't cut it.... the 534 line is your new best friend. 

 

I would obviously bet against snow in this timeframe, but am skeptical of using longterm odds on anomalous events around here with what's happened the last 5 years. Wettest year, wettest month, snowiest month, 2 snowiest years, hottest year, 2 hurricane encounters etc all since 2010. It seems stuff just happens so I wouldn't be surprised to see snow this April.

 

Agree 100% on your technical points (thicknesses etc) as always.

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Thanks ray I didnt know that 540 doesn't cut it in april. What about the other critical thicknesses like the 850 line does that not cut it for april snow either? As always you are on point with the stats for april and since its been 11 years I'd agree with Kamu and say the law of averages is more in our favor than against us getting an April snow.

Yes, 850s that are just below freezing aren't going to cut it, either. You definitely want them to be at least down to -3, generally speaking. Keep in mind this is due to greater insolation warming near surface temps, so it's not impossible to get snow in more marginal situations.... It's just a lot harder than in mid winter.

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With a couple of exceptions April since 2002 has been quite toasty, 2003 & particularly 2007 were below AVE. Coincidentally those are only times during that period locally which I've recorded measurable snow, most recent was 4/16/2007 when the 4/15-16 deluge ended as snow. I had 0.5" at the previous Feasterville location however the higher parts of the city, Roxborough & Manayunk, rec'd 2-3".

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifDSC02167.JPG

Nice pic.  I also remember an Opening Day snow event in 2011 (April 1) for the northern suburbs of Philly (coating to an inch or so, on the morning of the 1st).

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Wouldn't be shocked to see flakes flying around Sunday Night...EURO/NAM kind of showing this now....Also, the day 9-10 maps on the CMC/EURO look very cold for this time of the year with a strong HP locked onto the Lakes. It is actually a fairly good spring time snow setup for the burbs if it verifies for the 7-10th time period. 

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I know no one cares, but the models are pretty gungho for this range on a storm in the 8-10th period, 12z GFS today shows one helluva spring storm..

I care.    Anything that delays bugs, grass cutting, and stinking heat and humidity is fine with me.  It looks like after that

the SE ridge will be flexing enough to get some sustained warmth in the mid-month period.   May is also looking warm.   

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Someone correct me if I am wrong but I believe that most of the storms that showed up 10 days in advance even during the height of this great winter really did not pan out. What did pan out was the ones that showed up 4 or less days in advance or just showed up on out doorstep( Dec 8)

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