famartin Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 I was going to say about every 5 years or so on average, which is close to the 17%. So when was our last one, heh heh? Edit - looks like 2003 for PHL. Also for ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 So while I wouldn't say "we are due", the law of averages is not working against it happening, fwiw..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Thanks ray I didnt know that 540 doesn't cut it in april. What about the other critical thicknesses like the 850 line does that not cut it for april snow either? As always you are on point with the stats for april and since its been 11 years I'd agree with Kamu and say the law of averages is more in our favor than against us getting an April snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 With a couple of exceptions April since 2002 has been quite toasty, 2003 & particularly 2007 were below AVE. Coincidentally those are only times during that period locally which I've recorded measurable snow, most recent was 4/16/2007 when the 4/15-16 deluge ended as snow. I had 0.5" at the previous Feasterville location however the higher parts of the city, Roxborough & Manayunk, rec'd 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Helluva ending to winter/March overall to the folks S/SE of Philly... "Statement as of 10:30 am EDT on March 27, 2014 ... Record low temperature set at Atlantic City, New Jersey...a record low temperature of 12 degrees was set at Atlantic City,New Jersey today. This breaks the old record of 16 set in 2001." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It snowed on my wedding on April 8th, 2000. We were at a place near the PA/DE state line on Rt 52. I think i remember at least a couple of inches sticking to grass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 It snowed on my wedding on April 8th, 2000. We were at a place near the PA/DE state line on Rt 52. I think i remember at least a couple of inches sticking to grass... Congrats? Was it this one? (from Rays' site): http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/09-Apr-00.html Although it looks like the snow was primarily on the morning of the 9th (Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 While snow certainly can happen in April, its relatively uncommon. At both PHL and ABE, the probability of an inch or more of snow in any given April is about 17%. That translates to 22 times in 130 years at PHL and 14 times in 81 years at ABE. When glancing at the models looking for snow threats, another thing to keep in mind is that the critical thicknesses don't mean quite the same during April as they do in mid-winter. Typically in mid-winter, you first tend to look for that 540 dM line on the 1000-500 mb thickness charts (usually shown along with sea level pressure and QPF). By this time of year, 540 usually doesn't cut it.... the 534 line is your new best friend. I would obviously bet against snow in this timeframe, but am skeptical of using longterm odds on anomalous events around here with what's happened the last 5 years. Wettest year, wettest month, snowiest month, 2 snowiest years, hottest year, 2 hurricane encounters etc all since 2010. It seems stuff just happens so I wouldn't be surprised to see snow this April. Agree 100% on your technical points (thicknesses etc) as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Outside and only 44.2 but feels like 60 in the sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicknack Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Both the 0z and now the 12z Gem runs show 1 to 2 feet of snow PHL to NYC for April 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Thanks ray I didnt know that 540 doesn't cut it in april. What about the other critical thicknesses like the 850 line does that not cut it for april snow either? As always you are on point with the stats for april and since its been 11 years I'd agree with Kamu and say the law of averages is more in our favor than against us getting an April snow. Yes, 850s that are just below freezing aren't going to cut it, either. You definitely want them to be at least down to -3, generally speaking. Keep in mind this is due to greater insolation warming near surface temps, so it's not impossible to get snow in more marginal situations.... It's just a lot harder than in mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Both the 0z and now the 12z Gem runs show 1 to 2 feet of snow PHL to NYC for April 5-6. Unless we shake March trends, This is a Jersey storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 Unless we shake March trends, This is a Jersey storm. New month, new trends. CMC shows -6 @ 850 over us next weekend with 0 line almost to the gulf coast. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 27, 2014 Share Posted March 27, 2014 With a couple of exceptions April since 2002 has been quite toasty, 2003 & particularly 2007 were below AVE. Coincidentally those are only times during that period locally which I've recorded measurable snow, most recent was 4/16/2007 when the 4/15-16 deluge ended as snow. I had 0.5" at the previous Feasterville location however the higher parts of the city, Roxborough & Manayunk, rec'd 2-3". DSC02167.JPG Nice pic. I also remember an Opening Day snow event in 2011 (April 1) for the northern suburbs of Philly (coating to an inch or so, on the morning of the 1st). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Wouldn't be shocked to see flakes flying around Sunday Night...EURO/NAM kind of showing this now....Also, the day 9-10 maps on the CMC/EURO look very cold for this time of the year with a strong HP locked onto the Lakes. It is actually a fairly good spring time snow setup for the burbs if it verifies for the 7-10th time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 April 8/9 is last chance for any frozen. Strong signal for a relatively cool storm but things will have to break just right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I know no one cares, but the models are pretty gungho for this range on a storm in the 8-10th period, 12z GFS today shows one helluva spring storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I know no one cares, but the models are pretty gungho for this range on a storm in the 8-10th period, 12z GFS today shows one helluva spring storm.. I care. Anything that delays bugs, grass cutting, and stinking heat and humidity is fine with me. It looks like after that the SE ridge will be flexing enough to get some sustained warmth in the mid-month period. May is also looking warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 This is crazy upload images free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Someone correct me if I am wrong but I believe that most of the storms that showed up 10 days in advance even during the height of this great winter really did not pan out. What did pan out was the ones that showed up 4 or less days in advance or just showed up on out doorstep( Dec 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 0z ECM with the April fools day 10 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 0z ECM with the April fools day 10 blizzard 12Z has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 12Z has nothing. April fools says the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 tax day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 WTH is the EURO doing the last two runs? Guess its sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 WTH is the EURO doing the last two runs? Guess its sleet? It couldn't be anything else, the snow output makes no sense whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 It couldn't be anything else, the snow output makes no sense whatsoever. Yeah its weird because stormvista is generally conservative with snowfall, yet 00z it went nuts...I guess it has to be mixing up sleet accumes with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 HUGE temp swings next week, this then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 the euro snow map next week per 0z is nuts. i think the model broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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