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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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HM said he loves the set up for something in the 4/5-10 timeframe in the MA forum. He also said that he hated the dates as far as getting snow for obvious reasons so who knows maybe there's still one more chance left for someone to see some snow fly, whether it would stick or not who knows lol.

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HM said he loves the set up for something in the 4/5-10 timeframe in the MA forum. He also said that he hated the dates as far as getting snow for obvious reasons so who knows maybe there's still one more chance left for someone to see some snow fly, whether it would stick or not who knows lol.

 

If it ever would snow in April this year would be the year....its not impossible though, but highly unlikely in the city...Today's EURO looks close for the 4-5th storm, a bit better 50/50....You can always get those wacky changeover events like April 97. 

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Im not sure of the year but it was within the last five or six years, I was trout fishing in pennypack creek and it was april and it snowed hard for about 15-20 mins and coated everything and tens mins later the sun came out and everything melted in minutes lol. It was one of the coolest things I've experienced catching trout in a snow squall I'd love to repeat that this year!

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If it ever would snow in April this year would be the year....its not impossible though, but highly unlikely in the city...Today's EURO looks close for the 4-5th storm, a bit better 50/50....You can always get those wacky changeover events like April 97.

I do not recall the years but do remember several April snow falls, several with 2-4 inches, in NJ . Also remember snow in the Poconos for my kids birthday in May....squall.....quick coating.

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I do not recall the years but do remember several April snow falls, several with 2-4 inches, in NJ . Also remember snow in the Poconos for my kids birthday in May....squall.....quick coating.

 

Same here, I remember a handful from over the years, mainly during the 1st week of April...and usually a surprise or overperformer

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While snow certainly can happen in April, its relatively uncommon.  At both PHL and ABE, the probability of an inch or more of snow in any given April is about 17%.  That translates to 22 times in 130 years at PHL and 14 times in 81 years at ABE. 

 

When glancing at the models looking for snow threats, another thing to keep in mind is that the critical thicknesses don't mean quite the same during April as they do in mid-winter.  Typically in mid-winter, you first tend to look for that 540 dM line on the 1000-500 mb thickness charts (usually shown along with sea level pressure and QPF).  By this time of year, 540 usually doesn't cut it.... the 534 line is your new best friend. 

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