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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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The big storm window keeps getting pushed back, now the best looking storm chance on tonight's runs is out towards March 3-5 , the katodog time frame :o

don't give up on the weekend system...most guidance except the euro has a slp at hatteras. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess right now.

Katodog is the man

thank you

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Individual events and model runs aside, this is the kind of stuff that warms this snow lovers heart looking forward for the next couple of weeks:

 

HM from the MA forum this morning:

Monday definitely benefits from some NAO blip action and then we wait for another by a strat disturbance maybe 12-15th. We'll definitely have the PNA in our favor by then with many smaller threats in between.

and:

This. Really, next two weeks easy look great. I'm staring at an amazing trough signal 3/8 -3/10 but trying to think past the model. It could end up not the biggie but set up a coastal just after. The PNA split is nice then.

 

And of course Katodog:

 

big storm possible sometime in first 8 days of march for east. maybe blizzard for some.i see march 3-5 but anywhere in first 8 days.not that we cant get any storms before but this one i see better. a problem i see is around 3rd and 4th and 13th 14th. i dont know if i see another storm or i am wrong on the first storm and it comes 13-14 of march. its the best i can see right now.

 

thank you

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Euro has a potential storm around the 12th, I think this is the third run in a row.  Temps haven't been entirely conducive.  But another "Katodog"? ;)

 

Accu-Weather picking up on this in their long range which means...err umm pretty much nothing but w/the Euro maybe something to watch.

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Nah i think weekend is off the table as well as 12-14. I think the pattern is about to snap and spring will be here earlier than expected. No more snow for Phiilly? Guaranteed. This weekend the Great Lakes kicker will win this one just like the PV won this past storm.

I agree about this weekend, though we've all just been humbled so I'm not going to guarantee it.  The pattern isn't conducive from what I  can tell, though.

 

However, I am curious about your reasoning for March 12th or thereabouts.  Could you go into more detail?

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Ok dream on put it to rest

 

We all know it is always a challenge for it to snow in Philadelphia in March, however, I'd say most of the data has some kind of potential threat for the 12-14th. Like Ray said this might be the 3-4th run in a row the EURO is showing a "cold" storm. It relies heavily on timing to get a HP to build in SE Canada before the energy comes up the coast, but it can happen. I didn't mean to sound disrespectful, I was just curious if there was any meteorological reason you think winter is plainly over for the city? 

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We might get a storm on the 13th or thereabouts, but the current snow pack will have holes in it by then.....meh.  This continued cold is more annoying than impressive at this point.  Unless the storm is a HECS I say why bother routing it on ;)  I mean you're just getting a new snow pack, the old one will be broken......that has never impressed me.  1994 still rules!  (7+storms on top of each other with no bare ground in between) 

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