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Medium/Long Range thread


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Ehh, wouldn't be soo confident in saying that. Just my .02c

agree....I am not calling for the below zero numbers.....but a solid duration of well below norms seems to be more probable. The question as I see is will it hold without a harsh heat pump before reloading because that is what will carry us into Feb.

I am sure the pros will be sounding in soon enough. You know who is honking along of course......

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Check back in 2 weeks

 

 

I could be off base but it has been the pattern this year cold for 2-4 weeks cold and potential snow then a sudden warm up.  It does seem logical but makes sense in a very progressive fast flow that has a +NAO, a +PNA going towards Negative, and an AO which will climb back to neutral in time to perhaps positive.

 

However with that said Winter Is Back for sure between now and 1/30/14 with highs in the upper 10s and 20's and night time lows in the single digits and below zero air not too far away.

 

Check Back in 2 weeks indeed because we will be seeing a change at the very least on the horizon.

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Check back in 2 weeks

 

 

I could be off base but it has been the pattern this year cold for 2-4 weeks cold and potential snow then a sudden warm up.  It does seem logical but makes sense in a very progressive fast flow that has a +NAO, a +PNA going towards Negative, and an AO which will climb back to neutral in time to perhaps positive.

 

However with that said Winter Is Back for sure between now and 1/30/14 with highs in the upper 10s and 20's and night time lows in the single digits and below zero air not too far away.

 

Check Back in 2 weeks indeed because we will be seeing a change at the very least on the horizon.

I'm not saying you will be wrong. Weeklies show the --epo going more neutral epo with a mean pacific flow across the nation. More of a SE ridge pops as well. So there may indeed be a lax in the pattern as we approach week 3 and especially week 4. This is at the very least a solid cold pattern setting up over the next 2 weeks. What happens after that is really a crapshoot at this point.

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I rarely see his name thrown around here anymore, but Cosgrove's on-board with 'nightmarish cold'.

And it's a real shame that we don't hear from Larry C on this forum.....

he remains my all time favorite met. A true gentleman and one of the best synopticians around... I'll never forget the phone call that I received from him two days prior to the blizzard of 96 telling me that we'd be getting 24"++....he was the first to correctly call that memorable storm!

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0z ECM is hideous with snow chances next ten days, even worse that the 0z GFS. Carolinas look good for snow  :axe:

Ideally all snow (and rain) will hold off until I can complete an emergency weather station relocation next Wednesday/Thursday (and also avoid my flights on Tuesday and Friday).

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And it's a real shame that we don't hear from Larry C on this forum.....

he remains my all time favorite met. A true gentleman and one of the best synopticians around... I'll never forget the phone call that I received from him two days prior to the blizzard of 96 telling me that we'd be getting 24"++....he was the first to correctly call that memorable storm!

I may be reaching in my memory here but if I am not mistaken LC was the first TV met( I believe he was on channel 17 in Phila at the time) to sniff out the 1996 blizzard a week before it happened.

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I may be reaching in my memory here but if I am not mistaken LC was the first TV met( I believe he was on channel 17 in Phila at the time) to sniff out the 1996 blizzard a week before it happened.

Yes you are right, he said the pattern supported a block buster event just had to watch the field open up for it.
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