Harbourton Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The main global models are advertising another major trough in the east at 500mb in the 8-14 day period. Will be watching the models to see if they can spin something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 liking the end of next week/early following week chances for a shot at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not sure, but climatology has a hard time coming up with +6 snowstorms in this time period - may be Ray or Uncle W has the stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not sure, but climatology has a hard time coming up with +6 snowstorms in this time period - may be Ray or Uncle W has the stats. Just look at the dates in the PHL and ABE 6 inch storm threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just look at the dates in the PHL and ABE 6 inch storm threads Thanks - 5 storms in 130 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thanks - 5 storms in 130 years This surprised me, because I tend to think of February as our "snow month": http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/reports/snowfalltables.html I'm going to hold on to that idea for a while yet . Actually it is, for PHL and ACY, by a small amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS is cold and stormy thru entire run. Still shows the jan 26-28 event I've been honking about. Watch that period as we get some blocking in place finally with ample energy rolling thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 hehe, the day before the super bowl forecast (GFS) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 there is going to be some barking and howling going on soon (storms and cold) If this works out, our start to winter was more about acclimation for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 there is going to be some barking and howling going on soon (storms and cold) If this works out, our start to winter was more about acclimation for the second half. We may get snow and cold, but nothing approaching the temps in early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 We may get snow and cold, but nothing approaching the temps in early January Ehh, wouldn't be soo confident in saying that. Just my .02c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Ehh, wouldn't be soo confident in saying that. Just my .02c agree....I am not calling for the below zero numbers.....but a solid duration of well below norms seems to be more probable. The question as I see is will it hold without a harsh heat pump before reloading because that is what will carry us into Feb. I am sure the pros will be sounding in soon enough. You know who is honking along of course...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I will be a quick period of Cold and a potential snowstorm then get warm again my thoughts by the first week of February enjoy next week Wednesday to about the 30th then blow torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I will be a quick period of Cold and a potential snowstorm then get warm again my thoughts by the first week of February enjoy next week Wednesday to about the 30th then blow torch. What do you base that off almighty weather predictor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 the coming cold might not be as cold but it will last longer than the early jan. hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I will be a quick period of Cold and a potential snowstorm then get warm again my thoughts by the first week of February enjoy next week Wednesday to about the 30th then blow torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I will be a quick period of Cold and a potential snowstorm then get warm again my thoughts by the first week of February enjoy next week Wednesday to about the 30th then blow torch. Check back in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I rarely see his name thrown around here anymore, but Cosgrove's on-board with 'nightmarish cold'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Check back in 2 weeks I could be off base but it has been the pattern this year cold for 2-4 weeks cold and potential snow then a sudden warm up. It does seem logical but makes sense in a very progressive fast flow that has a +NAO, a +PNA going towards Negative, and an AO which will climb back to neutral in time to perhaps positive. However with that said Winter Is Back for sure between now and 1/30/14 with highs in the upper 10s and 20's and night time lows in the single digits and below zero air not too far away. Check Back in 2 weeks indeed because we will be seeing a change at the very least on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Check back in 2 weeks I could be off base but it has been the pattern this year cold for 2-4 weeks cold and potential snow then a sudden warm up. It does seem logical but makes sense in a very progressive fast flow that has a +NAO, a +PNA going towards Negative, and an AO which will climb back to neutral in time to perhaps positive. However with that said Winter Is Back for sure between now and 1/30/14 with highs in the upper 10s and 20's and night time lows in the single digits and below zero air not too far away. Check Back in 2 weeks indeed because we will be seeing a change at the very least on the horizon. I'm not saying you will be wrong. Weeklies show the --epo going more neutral epo with a mean pacific flow across the nation. More of a SE ridge pops as well. So there may indeed be a lax in the pattern as we approach week 3 and especially week 4. This is at the very least a solid cold pattern setting up over the next 2 weeks. What happens after that is really a crapshoot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I rarely see his name thrown around here anymore, but Cosgrove's on-board with 'nightmarish cold'.And it's a real shame that we don't hear from Larry C on this forum.....he remains my all time favorite met. A true gentleman and one of the best synopticians around... I'll never forget the phone call that I received from him two days prior to the blizzard of 96 telling me that we'd be getting 24"++....he was the first to correctly call that memorable storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 WSI forecasting a cold February http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-for-february/ Relaxation period the first week of the month looks about right you always get that after a large arctic outbreak and fits this winters pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z ECM is hideous with snow chances next ten days, even worse that the 0z GFS. Carolinas look good for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z ECM is hideous with snow chances next ten days, even worse that the 0z GFS. Carolinas look good for snow Ideally all snow (and rain) will hold off until I can complete an emergency weather station relocation next Wednesday/Thursday (and also avoid my flights on Tuesday and Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 bitter cold and dry Ray, just like your desert climate no worries emergency relocation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 bitter cold and dry Ray, just like your desert climate no worries emergency relocation? They can't stay in the house for a few months so I'm moving everything to my brother's house a mile away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 And it's a real shame that we don't hear from Larry C on this forum..... he remains my all time favorite met. A true gentleman and one of the best synopticians around... I'll never forget the phone call that I received from him two days prior to the blizzard of 96 telling me that we'd be getting 24"++....he was the first to correctly call that memorable storm! I may be reaching in my memory here but if I am not mistaken LC was the first TV met( I believe he was on channel 17 in Phila at the time) to sniff out the 1996 blizzard a week before it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I may be reaching in my memory here but if I am not mistaken LC was the first TV met( I believe he was on channel 17 in Phila at the time) to sniff out the 1996 blizzard a week before it happened. I sat next to Larry at the GTG a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I may be reaching in my memory here but if I am not mistaken LC was the first TV met( I believe he was on channel 17 in Phila at the time) to sniff out the 1996 blizzard a week before it happened.Yes you are right, he said the pattern supported a block buster event just had to watch the field open up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Heating bill is going to be astronomical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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