Mitchell Gaines Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 CMC is a rain maker with northern branch dominance. Still considerable spread with GFS ensembles. Not really buying into anything before I see more run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 ECM looks like it could jackpot us , uh oh that is too soon game over A MECS for sepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 ECM looks like it could jackpot us , uh oh that is too soon game over A MECS for sepa I don't have access to the euro. From reports it shows a miller B type storm. Odds increasing for a possible event the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Going off the 925 0C line being rain/snow, Delmarva and Southern NJ have mainly rain and the line creeps up toward PHL for a while. Though a good "6" before the changeover. I'll take a blend of the 00z and 12z EC runs please. A very cold Saturday morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Man, if we could get this to dive a little bit farther SE and close off a little earlier, the potential is still high for a MECS+...Long long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 ECM looks like it could jackpot us , uh oh that is too soon game over A MECS for sepa --- Edit : oopsie, I was talking about tomorrow's storm...not the mid-week one. --- I'm expecting the unexpected here. A quick dumping of over 6" is possible. Usually when Skew-T's are this close, it almost always favors the colder solution. And look at how CLOSE the 32 line is in all precipitable layers ! This is for 18z tomorrow....GFS Models aren't even recognizing the weak snow cover that's still up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Previously, it was noted that Philadelphia's December snowfall had reached 10". Since 1872, only 9 previous years had seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more. With the 9.0" snowfall in Philadelphia, that city has now surpassed 20" seasonal snowfall. Philadelphia likely has a high probability of reaching and surpassing 30" seasonal snowfall. In the medium-term thread in the main forum, it was noted that Philadelphia, New York, and Boston had seen 8" or more snow in December. The odds also favored above average snowfall for Philadelphia. Taking that same set, of those winters that saw at least a trace of snow in those three cities during the January 1-10 period, all 6 winters saw Philadelphia receive 30" or more seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks Don! As always you are one of my all-time favorite posters. Just great historical information. Happy New Year! Paul Previously, it was noted that Philadelphia's December snowfall had reached 10". Since 1872, only 9 previous years had seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more. With the 9.0" snowfall in Philadelphia, that city has now surpassed 20" seasonal snowfall. Philadelphia likely has a high probability of reaching and surpassing 30" seasonal snowfall. In the medium-term thread in the main forum, it was noted that Philadelphia, New York, and Boston had seen 8" or more snow in December. The odds also favored above average snowfall for Philadelphia. Taking that same set, of those winters that saw at least a trace of snow in those three cities during the January 1-10 period, all 6 winters saw Philadelphia receive 30" or more seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 8 to 10 day 500 mb mean spreads for the GFS,EC, and CMC are showing the resurgence of the SE ridge putting the January Thaw right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 8 to 10 day 500 mb mean spreads for the GFS,EC, and CMC are showing the resurgence of the SE ridge putting the January Thaw right on schedule. It's looking more and more likely. So glad we've gotten some good winter weather in, it makes it much easier to be (somewhat) philosophical about a January thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Going to sleep until the 20th, talk to you guys then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This sure looks like a very very short January thaw....it is looking more likely that this will be a very brief break in what has been quite the cold start to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You might need to wake up a bit early...as guidance indicates we may see winter returning by the 16th! Going to sleep until the 20th, talk to you guys then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Going to sleep until the 20th, talk to you guys then. 'Nite - hope you'll need to pull some all nighters when you get up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Looks like this warm up will be short-lived as cold air continues rebuilding in Canada as we experience our brief warm up this week. Check out the GFS ensemble mean. As you can see, basically the second row is the only warm one for us and after that the warmth is leaving and you can see the cold air about to dump right back into our area again. And then the 11-15 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Intriguing pattern repeat of December on the GFS with the big mild spike next weekend then a too warm for snow storm up from the gulf before the cold reloads. If two more weeks of cold and stormy follow the pattern then good times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12z GFS continues to show an exciting run after our pending warm / rain period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Not too excited about the semi torch this weekend, but if it stays cold and stormy then I'm all in. (Strangely I really want to see the Neshaminy Creek freeze up and become a ice skating rink.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12z GFS continues to show an exciting run after our pending warm / rain period. Days 7-10 ECMWF last two runs, worlds apart. After day 10 shows promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 As mentioned on other boards, it seems that this winter is dominated by a -EPO that periodically translates into a + PNA that dumps cold air into CONUS. If moisture gets involved during a cold period, we get snow. Will be interesting until this pattern brakes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Days 7-10 ECMWF last two runs, worlds apart. After day 10 shows promise!One two punch, Jan 24 - 27th warning criteria, and one or two days before the Super Bowl, again warning criteria. It will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Highzenberg said he was going to sleep until the 20th....I wonder if he's dreaming about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 12z euro extended after 2 pending rain storms looks interesting with potential storm setup. I wonder if the 2nd rain storm could end up further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Highzenberg said he was going to sleep until the 20th....I wonder if he's dreaming about the Euro. No, he's over in the mid Atlantic forum January pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 No, he's over in the mid Atlantic forum January pattern thread. lol...I saw a post from him too earlier. Guess he couldn't sleep. From this vantage point it's nice to see the potential for later next week, whether it verifies or not. Looking like a pattern reload of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 lol...I saw a post from him too earlier. Guess he couldn't sleep. From this vantage point it's nice to see the potential for later next week, whether it verifies or not. Looking like a pattern reload of sorts. I'm here everyday there is no way I can stay away...lol. I'm hoping for a nice storm with the potential of CCB's.. I'm into the process of building a steadi - cam for my hd camcorder. I have some real nice footage from 09-10 and 2011 that is unwatchable do to motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 18Z GFS pops a low at 144. 3 - 5" for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 A little more digging with this would bring a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 A little more digging with this would bring a significant even Too much of a phase with that setup and that could cut to the west of us as well. Atlantic flow is way too progressive so it would have to be perfect IMO for this to be anything of significance. If you want snow then you want it to be weak as modeled here or you run the risk of an earlier phase and warmer and wet solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.