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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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ECM looks like it could jackpot us , uh oh that is too soon game over  :whistle:

 

A MECS for sepa

 

 

 

--- Edit : oopsie, I was talking about tomorrow's storm...not the mid-week one.  ---

 

 

I'm expecting the unexpected here. A quick dumping of over 6" is possible. Usually when Skew-T's are this close, it almost always favors the colder solution.

 

And look at how CLOSE the 32 line is in all precipitable layers !    This is for 18z tomorrow....GFS 

 

Models aren't even recognizing the weak snow cover that's still up here. 

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Previously, it was noted that Philadelphia's December snowfall had reached 10". Since 1872, only 9 previous years had seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more.

 

With the 9.0" snowfall in Philadelphia, that city has now surpassed 20" seasonal snowfall. Philadelphia likely has a high probability of reaching and surpassing 30" seasonal snowfall.

 

In the medium-term thread in the main forum, it was noted that Philadelphia, New York, and Boston had seen 8" or more snow in December. The odds also favored above average snowfall for Philadelphia. Taking that same set, of those winters that saw at least a trace of snow in those three cities during the January 1-10 period, all 6 winters saw Philadelphia receive 30" or more seasonal snowfall.

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Thanks Don!

As always you are one of my all-time favorite posters. Just great historical information.

Happy New Year!

Paul

Previously, it was noted that Philadelphia's December snowfall had reached 10". Since 1872, only 9 previous years had seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more.

 

With the 9.0" snowfall in Philadelphia, that city has now surpassed 20" seasonal snowfall. Philadelphia likely has a high probability of reaching and surpassing 30" seasonal snowfall.

 

In the medium-term thread in the main forum, it was noted that Philadelphia, New York, and Boston had seen 8" or more snow in December. The odds also favored above average snowfall for Philadelphia. Taking that same set, of those winters that saw at least a trace of snow in those three cities during the January 1-10 period, all 6 winters saw Philadelphia receive 30" or more seasonal snowfall.

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8 to 10 day  500 mb mean spreads for the GFS,EC, and CMC are showing the resurgence of the SE ridge putting the January Thaw right on schedule.

 

It's looking more and more likely. So glad we've gotten some good winter weather in, it makes it much easier to be (somewhat) philosophical about a January thaw.

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Looks like this warm up will be short-lived as cold air continues rebuilding in Canada as we experience our brief warm up this week. Check out the GFS ensemble mean. As you can see, basically the second row is the only warm one for us and after that the warmth is leaving and you can see the cold air about to dump right back into our area again. 

 

post-205-0-12362400-1388984035_thumb.png

 

 

And then the 11-15 mean. 

post-205-0-84147000-1388984081_thumb.png

 

 

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lol...I saw a post from him too earlier. Guess he couldn't sleep. From this vantage point it's nice to see the potential for later next week, whether it verifies or not. Looking like a pattern reload of sorts.

I'm here everyday there is no way I can stay away...lol. I'm hoping for a nice storm with the potential of CCB's.. I'm into the process of building a steadi - cam for my hd camcorder. I have some real nice footage from 09-10 and 2011 that is unwatchable do to motion.

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A little more digging with this would bring a significant even

Too much of a phase with that setup and that could cut to the west of us as well.  Atlantic flow is way too progressive so it would have to be perfect IMO for this to be anything of significance.  If you want snow then you want it to be weak as modeled here or you run the risk of an earlier phase and warmer and wet solution.

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