Quakertown needs snow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Big torch temps showing up Sunday. The temp drop is right behind with crazy gradients east to west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Big torch temps showing up Sunday. The temp drop is right behind with crazy gradients east to west Hope the trend holds and the cold gets back here by 12-24. Maybe the story this winter cold shots followed by a sw flow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hope the trend holds and the cold gets back here by 12-24. Maybe the story this winter cold shots followed by a sw flow.... Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Sure there are chances before this but there is a strong signal on guidance for something arriving on or near NYE. East-based Negative NAO looks to be taking shape around that time as well. Often times the bigger systems consistently appear on lr guidance like this. Not sure what the mjo is doing at this time but it appears the -epo returns. Something in the long range to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe I missed it, but I was wondering if HM provided an outlook for Jan/Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe I missed it, but I was wondering if HM provided an outlook for Jan/Feb? There might be something in the main forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NYE potential still appearing on guidance over the past 24 hours though the gfs op is a bit more strung out with the slp. Ridiculously early to even discuss specifics but alas we have a strengthening -epo at that time and the nao/ao appear to be going negative (CMC) with a east-based block showing up on some guidance. Again, just something to watch since its slow right now and this potential keeps showing up from one model suite to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm no expert but it seems we need to get a better PV setup for NYE hit, still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm no expert but it seems we need to get a better PV setup for NYE hit, still time.Atlantic still looks meh...there is some semblance of an east greenland ridge but this map doesn't look like it would allow for the system to slow down as the flow is ripping thru. We are also lacking a 50/50 but we have had 4 snow 'events' so far in a similar pattern. Imo as long as that -epo remains on the strong side we can make out alright....not tremendous but alright. Regarding the PV it doesn't appear to be in a bad spot...the cold air is right there on the border poised to be tapped. Time will tell if this is truly a legit threat which I believe it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Still showing up on lr guidance. Matter of fact the setup looks quite familiar at the surface for kicks and giggles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The ridge in the eastern Pacific looks to migrate to the east creating a +PNA. May be another cold spell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The ridge in the eastern Pacific looks to migrate to the east creating a +PNA. May be another cold spell? Very stable -epo. Tough to stay warm for long. Conversely +nao makes it tougher to get bigger events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Very stable -epo. Tough to stay warm for long. Conversely +nao makes it tougher to get bigger events. I wouldn't mind repeating the first 18 days December with many nickel and dime events and real cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 I wouldn't mind repeating the first 18 days December with many nickel and dime events and real cold. Agreed. We know the -NAO is going to be tough to get established, but if it trends neutral with the pattern thats been around, we may have frequent overrunning/SWFE's and that's fine by me. I prefer a bunch of smaller events to keep things fresh instead of the mother load and then hope it stays around for a while. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 NAO and the AO may be turning in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I think we will have to wait and see that outlook to make it to the day 7 graph. Day 10 & 14 are verifying more positive than the ensemble mean. Regardless, -epo and/or +pna for the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 The ridge in the eastern Pacific looks to migrate to the east creating a +PNA. May be another cold spell? It looks like this is going to happen creating quite a cold blast around New Years Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GEFS have half decent storm signal in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GEFS have half decent storm signal in about a . member p010 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 EURO continues the cold and dry phase, I do like how many GFS ensembles do show a storm, something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 EURO continues the cold and dry phase, I do like how many GFS ensembles do show a storm, something to keep an eye on. Gotta hope the GEFS/Euro ensembles are on to something because the op models aren't showing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 EURO continues the cold and dry phase, I do like how many GFS ensembles do show a storm, something to keep an eye on. Gotta hope the GEFS/Euro ensembles are on to something because the op models aren't showing much. A miller a on the 12z op gfs isn't much? Watch that january 2-4 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 A miller a on the 12z op gfs isn't much? Watch that january 2-4 period. I'd call the 12z gfs a Miller B with primary to lower lakes. Not a good track for this area. Will probably change at 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'd call the 12z gfs a Miller B with primary to lower lakes. Not a good track for this area. Will probably change at 18z.. hey Yea I second that! Never a good sign for snow in Southeast PA when the primary is sitting in central Ohio and the secondary is developing near the Mouth of the Delaware Bay if anything a little snow to Freezing rain then rain. Also call me nuts but it would appear looking at the last say 6-9 runs of the GFS it appears to be more of a La Nina Pattern?? Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS wants to cut the primary due to a more amplified PNA, however there's a ton of confluence it's not likely gonna cut. If anything, it's gonna fizzle south and east like the Euro is depicting. Still a ton of potential here +5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 0z ecm trying to put together a big snowstorm DC south day 6, storm gets suppressed. But significant change from 12z that had nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro is a big improvement. 00z Euro ensembles also sharper, Solid threat now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Latest Wxsim has a very brief period of ZR- arriving in NW Chesco by 7am tomorrow quickly going over to a day long cold rain with a high of 37.9. It then has snow arriving on New Years Night by around 10pm continuing till mid morning on Jan 2nd and accumulating around 3" - very cold weather to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GFS not too bad at all. Long duration snow event. Great ratios. Snowmaps all say 6"+ Philly NE for the 2/3 storm verbatim this run. Still looks nothing like the 00z Euro from last night, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GFS not too bad at all. Long duration snow event. Great ratios. Snowmaps all say 6"+ Philly NE for the 2/3 storm verbatim this run. Still looks nothing like the 00z Euro from last night, though. Euro had a boatload of juice coming up with a southern system GFS is more like what southern stream. I like that this is already essentially a day 5 threat. We need this one to stay on track for a good winter I set goals and 20" for first half of winter by jan 15 is the makings of a very good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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