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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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Sure there are chances before this but there is a strong signal on guidance for something arriving on or near NYE. East-based Negative NAO looks to be taking shape around that time as well. Often times the bigger systems consistently appear on lr guidance like this. Not sure what the mjo is doing at this time but it appears the -epo returns. Something in the long range to watch anyway.

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NYE potential still appearing on guidance over the past 24 hours though the gfs op is a bit more strung out with the slp. Ridiculously early to even discuss specifics but alas we have a strengthening -epo at that time and the nao/ao appear to be going negative (CMC) with a east-based block showing up on some guidance. Again, just something to watch since its slow right now and this potential keeps showing up from one model suite to the next.

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I'm no expert but it seems we need to get a better PV setup for NYE hit, still time.

Atlantic still looks meh...there is some semblance of an east greenland ridge but this map doesn't look like it would allow for the system to slow down as the flow is ripping thru. We are also lacking a 50/50 but we have had 4 snow 'events' so far in a similar pattern. Imo as long as that -epo remains on the strong side we can make out alright....not tremendous but alright. Regarding the PV it doesn't appear to be in a bad spot...the cold air is right there on the border poised to be tapped. Time will tell if this is truly a legit threat which I believe it is.

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I wouldn't mind repeating the first 18 days December with many nickel and dime events and real cold.

Agreed.  We know the -NAO is going to be tough to get established, but if it trends neutral with the pattern thats been around, we may have frequent overrunning/SWFE's and that's fine by me.  I prefer a bunch of smaller events to keep things fresh instead of the mother load and then hope it stays around for a while.

 

Nut

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 I'd call the 12z gfs  a Miller B with primary to lower lakes. Not a good track for this area. Will probably change at 18z..

 

hey Yea I second that!  Never a good sign for snow in Southeast PA when the primary is sitting in central Ohio and the secondary is developing near the Mouth of the Delaware Bay if anything a little snow to Freezing rain then rain.

 

 

Also call me nuts but it would appear looking at the last say 6-9 runs of the GFS it appears to be more of a La Nina Pattern??  Thoughts anyone?

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Latest Wxsim has a very brief period of ZR- arriving in NW Chesco by 7am tomorrow quickly going over to a day long cold rain with a high of 37.9. It then has snow arriving on New Years Night by around 10pm continuing till mid morning on Jan 2nd and accumulating around 3" - very cold weather to follow

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12z GFS not too bad at all. Long duration snow event. Great ratios. Snowmaps all say 6"+ Philly NE for the 2/3 storm verbatim this run. Still looks nothing like the 00z Euro from last night, though.

Euro had a boatload of juice coming up with a southern system GFS is more like what southern stream. I like that this is already essentially a day 5 threat. We need this one to stay on track for a good winter

 

I set goals and 20" for first half of winter by jan 15 is the makings of a very good winter

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