SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agreed. I have seen an overperforming snow burst arrive with WAA many times The only semblance of a reason I could see for the GFS/Euro possibly being onto something is a notable dry nose pushing ENE across PA around 03-06Z Monday AM in the 500-700mb level, but that still does not really account for why from 18-03Z there is not more of a push or outbreak of precip north of the PA/MD border....all that said, 12/28/90 again is the #1 analog on CIPS tonight and its a #1 by a large margin scoring nearly a 14.0, thats actually quite high for only 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The only semblance of a reason I could see for the GFS/Euro possibly being onto something is a notable dry nose pushing ENE across PA around 03-06Z Monday AM in the 500-700mb level, but that still does not really account for why from 18-03Z there is not more of a push or outbreak of precip north of the PA/MD border....all that said, 12/28/90 again is the #1 analog on CIPS tonight and its a #1 by a large margin scoring nearly a 14.0, thats actually quite high for only 72 hours out. Do you have a snowmap for this 12/28/90 event? Perhaps a more detailed summary somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Do you have a snowmap for this 12/28/90 event? Perhaps a more detailed summary somewhere? Here is the 4 panel from PSU Ewall... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us1228.php Obviously not nearly the surface low development the models ultimately have with this event and your 500mb feature this time is farther west, still there are alot of similarities and while we would no way see these sort of amounts its hard to argue there will be nothing either. Yesterday the biggest argument against this we had in the NYC thread was the primary/secondary lows were gonna warm things up much faster than the 1990 event, tonight however that issue seems less a factor and if anything now the bigger argument against it is simply the upper level feature not driving nearly as directly into the surface high. The models badly missed the QPF in the 1990 event, that was likely just due to it being overrunning and the older models really struggled with those events as today's even do at times but even by 1990 standards it was probably blown by a bigger degree than one would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Obs and disco for tonight's event can go to the topic linked below now... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41891-obsdiscussion-snowsleetmess-fridayfriday-night-126-7/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 12z Euro is about the worst dr no ever for sepa for the 8-9th event, but delaware scores big snowmaps actually have no snow for philly and 1" further N&W burbs and 2" lehigh valley No final wave Tuesday outside of a sliver of light snow running up through delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 ecm is showing a 12hr period of snow for a portion on central delaware with 5-7" of the white stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like in the short term a gigantic SE ridge will keep most frozen precip at bay in this area. Warm spell may be in the offing after a brief cold shot. And after that the GFS is advertising the SE ridge decreasing but a flat flow developing which isn't that great around here. Teleconnections are turning unfavorable also. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 ecm qpf looks screwy between hours 45 and 54hrs these maps not so great. On second look it is beefier with frozen qpf that 12z on sunday No indication of snow for tuesday this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS & NAM all of a sudden showing a small snow event Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 But the NAM can't get it right at 6 hours hopefully the ecm can get on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 As the current event is winding down, Iwould really appreciate anyone's input on the next euro run for Saturday. GFS stronger wetter faster and colder with next system. Euro slower and maybe time to get warmer air in. Thanks in advance. Have a neice getting married Saturday, family counting on me to keep them informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS looked like it was going to pull it off on the 12z run then popped a low over ohio. Great high pressure placement to the north i have a positive vibe with this one *hopefully for weddings sake it will be rain too early to make a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Today's 12Z GFS will get some attention, especially for people away from the coast. Obviously haven't seen profiles yet, but 850 temps and 1000-500mb thicknesses are going to raise some eyebrows. Looks like a snow>sleet>zr>rain(?) transition for most of the storm. Noticing a decent front end snow on this run as well for parts of the area. A couple runs ago, the GFS had pretty much all ZR at ABE. Wondering what it'll be this time. Regardless, we're 120 hours out and everything is near the borderline on this run, so actual ptypes will be useless for all but entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just had a look at the profiles and it's all frozen for ABE per the 12Z GFS. A few inches of snow followed by over 0.25" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just had a look at the profiles and it's all frozen for ABE per the 12Z GFS. A few inches of snow followed by over 0.25" of freezing rain. How much qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I am having flashbacks to 93-94.......might be off base regarding cold though.....so far. The storm train, mixed bag followed by a cold blast and step down......hmmm I am not a forecaster by any means so its just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 How much qpf? 0.61" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I am having flashbacks to 93-94.......might be off base regarding cold though.....so far. The storm train, mixed bag followed by a cold blast and step down......hmmm I am not a forecaster by any means so its just a gut feeling. Well if this weekends storm holds serve, I will be 3 layers into a glacier forming in my back yard. 93-94 had about 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well if this weekends storm holds serve, I will be 3 layers into a glacier forming in my back yard. 93-94 had about 17. Yeah, but that was by months end. Certainly a December to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hearing the 12Z Euro is pure win. Anyone with details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hearing the 12Z Euro is pure win. Anyone with details? SECS with 6-12" of snow pretty much everywhere N&W of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yea Euro is a huge hit for most of this area. Areas S/E of 95 are too warm but Philly NW does well. Point is its even colder than the last run. And we are still 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 With yesterday's 2.2" snowfall, Philadelphia's monthly snowfall has now reached 10.8". Since 1872, only 9 previous years have seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more. The relevant winters and seasonal snowfall are below: 1904-05 38.4" 1909-10 35.8" 1910-11 25.3" 1945-46 18.4" 1960-61 49.0" 1966-67 37.8" 2000-01 24.3" 2009-10 78.7" 2010-11 44.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 With yesterday's 2.2" snowfall, Philadelphia's monthly snowfall has now reached 10.8". Since 1872, only 9 previous years have seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more. The relevant winters and seasonal snowfall are below: 1904-05 38.4" 1909-10 35.8" 1910-11 25.3" 1945-46 18.4" 1960-61 49.0" 1966-67 37.8" 2000-01 24.3" 2009-10 78.7" 2010-11 44.0" Don, Even if Philly has not made 10", once a 6" or greater event occurs in December, since 1950, there has been an 89% reoccurrence of at least one more similar event the rest of the season and 44% reoccurrence of multiple event seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don, Even if Philly has not made 10", once a 6" or greater event occurs in December, since 1950, there has been an 89% reoccurrence of at least one more similar event the rest of the season and 44% reoccurrence of multiple event seasons. Thanks Tony. Sunday's snowfall was a pleasant (for snow lovers) surprise. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter fares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 With yesterday's 2.2" snowfall, Philadelphia's monthly snowfall has now reached 10.8". Since 1872, only 9 previous years have seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more. The relevant winters and seasonal snowfall are below: 1904-05 38.4" 1909-10 35.8" 1910-11 25.3" 1945-46 18.4" 1960-61 49.0" 1966-67 37.8" 2000-01 24.3" 2009-10 78.7" 2010-11 44.0" That's a wonderful statistic. Thanks for sharing that Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I remember HM calling for a storm around December 14th...I can't find the post to bump it but it was a great call...On par with the Dec. 2003 call ten years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I remember HM calling for a storm around December 14th...I can't find the post to bump it but it was a great call...On par with the Dec. 2003 call ten years ago... Yeah I remember reading that too about a mid December event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Think it was the 12th but i could be wrong, if so close enough HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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