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Medium/Long Range thread


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Agreed. I have seen an overperforming snow burst arrive with WAA many times

 

The only semblance of a reason I could see for the GFS/Euro possibly being onto something is a notable dry nose pushing ENE across PA around 03-06Z Monday AM in the 500-700mb level, but that still does not really account for why from 18-03Z there is not more of a push or outbreak of precip north of the PA/MD border....all that said, 12/28/90 again is the #1 analog on CIPS tonight and its a #1 by a large margin scoring nearly a 14.0, thats actually quite high for only 72 hours out.

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The only semblance of a reason I could see for the GFS/Euro possibly being onto something is a notable dry nose pushing ENE across PA around 03-06Z Monday AM in the 500-700mb level, but that still does not really account for why from 18-03Z there is not more of a push or outbreak of precip north of the PA/MD border....all that said, 12/28/90 again is the #1 analog on CIPS tonight and its a #1 by a large margin scoring nearly a 14.0, thats actually quite high for only 72 hours out.

Do you have a snowmap for this 12/28/90 event? Perhaps a more detailed summary somewhere?

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Do you have a snowmap for this 12/28/90 event? Perhaps a more detailed summary somewhere?

 

Here is the 4 panel from PSU Ewall...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us1228.php

 

Obviously not nearly the surface low development the models ultimately have with this event and your 500mb feature this time is farther west, still there are alot of similarities and while we would no way see these sort of amounts its hard to argue there will be nothing either.  Yesterday the biggest argument against this we had in the NYC thread was the primary/secondary lows were gonna warm things up much faster than the 1990 event, tonight however that issue seems less a factor and if anything now the bigger argument against it is simply the upper level feature not driving nearly as directly into the surface high.  The models badly missed the QPF in the 1990 event, that was likely just due to it being overrunning and the older models really struggled with those events as today's even do at times but even by 1990 standards it was probably blown by a bigger degree than one would have expected.

 

 

 

19901228_072_total.png

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12z Euro is about the worst dr no ever for sepa for the 8-9th event, but delaware scores big

 

snowmaps actually have no snow for philly :(  and 1" further N&W burbs and 2" lehigh valley

 

No final wave Tuesday outside of a sliver of light snow running up through delaware

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Looks like in the short term a gigantic SE ridge will keep most frozen precip at bay in this area. Warm spell may be in the offing after a brief cold shot. And after that the GFS is advertising the SE ridge decreasing but a flat flow developing which isn't that great around here. Teleconnections are turning unfavorable also. JMO

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As the current event is winding down, Iwould really appreciate anyone's input on the next euro run for Saturday.  GFS stronger wetter faster and colder with next system.  Euro slower and  maybe time to get warmer air in.  Thanks in advance.  Have a neice getting married Saturday, family counting on me to keep them informed.

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Today's 12Z GFS will get some attention, especially for people away from the coast.  Obviously haven't seen profiles yet, but 850 temps and 1000-500mb thicknesses are going to raise some eyebrows.  Looks like a snow>sleet>zr>rain(?) transition for most of the storm.  Noticing a decent front end snow on this run as well for parts of the area.  A couple runs ago, the GFS had pretty much all ZR at ABE.  Wondering what it'll be this time.  Regardless, we're 120 hours out and everything is near the borderline on this run, so actual ptypes will be useless for all but entertainment.

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I am having flashbacks to 93-94.......might be off base regarding cold though.....so far.

 

The storm train, mixed bag followed by a cold blast and step down......hmmm

 

I am not a forecaster by any means so its just a gut feeling.

Well if this weekends storm holds serve, I will be 3 layers into a glacier forming in my back yard. 93-94 had about 17.

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With yesterday's 2.2" snowfall, Philadelphia's monthly snowfall has now reached 10.8". Since 1872, only 9 previous years have seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more.

 

The relevant winters and seasonal snowfall are below: 

 

1904-05 38.4"

1909-10 35.8"

1910-11 25.3"

1945-46 18.4"

1960-61 49.0"

1966-67 37.8"

2000-01 24.3"

2009-10 78.7"

2010-11 44.0"

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With yesterday's 2.2" snowfall, Philadelphia's monthly snowfall has now reached 10.8". Since 1872, only 9 previous years have seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more.

 

The relevant winters and seasonal snowfall are below: 

 

1904-05 38.4"

1909-10 35.8"

1910-11 25.3"

1945-46 18.4"

1960-61 49.0"

1966-67 37.8"

2000-01 24.3"

2009-10 78.7"

2010-11 44.0"

Don,

 

Even if Philly has not made 10", once a 6" or greater event occurs in December, since 1950, there has been an 89% reoccurrence of at least one more similar event the rest of the season and 44% reoccurrence of multiple event seasons.

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Don,

 

Even if Philly has not made 10", once a 6" or greater event occurs in December, since 1950, there has been an 89% reoccurrence of at least one more similar event the rest of the season and 44% reoccurrence of multiple event seasons.

Thanks Tony. Sunday's snowfall was a pleasant (for snow lovers) surprise. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter fares.

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With yesterday's 2.2" snowfall, Philadelphia's monthly snowfall has now reached 10.8". Since 1872, only 9 previous years have seen 10" or more snowfall in December. 8/9 (89%) went on to have winters with 20" or more snowfall and 6/9 (67%) received 30" or more.

 

The relevant winters and seasonal snowfall are below: 

 

1904-05 38.4"

1909-10 35.8"

1910-11 25.3"

1945-46 18.4"

1960-61 49.0"

1966-67 37.8"

2000-01 24.3"

2009-10 78.7"

2010-11 44.0"

That's a wonderful statistic. Thanks for sharing that Don.

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