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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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Saturday yes. Otherwise it's a dumping next week

Rain in the city Saturday.  If a map shows snow, then its just wrong. Maybe it could end as snow at ABE but probably 1-2 at the very most.  Verbatim.

 

Sunday/Monday it warms up fast.  At 6Z Monday, ABE is still *barely* cold enough for snow with 0.13" having fallen.  Another 0.48" falls in the next 6 hours, but it torches, with 850's at +4C.  2-3" of snow seems like a good estimate for ABE Sunday/Monday.

 

If there are maps showing much more, then their algorithms are likely faulty.

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0z euro becomes Dr No and sides with gfs becoming dry north of the mason dixon- snowmaps for sunday night look like 1" in sepa

 

ironically now more snow may fall saturday morning with end of first system but more changes for sunday likely with close to three days to go

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Have i ever said how much i hate dr no grrrr

:lol:

 

Up at ABE the EC does suggest it could snow more (a couple inches) Friday night than Sunday night (maybe an inch).  Along I-95 it looks like nothing Friday night, while there could be an inch Sunday night along I-95.

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:lol:

 

Up at ABE the EC does suggest it could snow more (a couple inches) Friday night than Sunday night (maybe an inch).  Along I-95 it looks like nothing Friday night, while there could be an inch Sunday night along I-95.

yup crazy model mayhem for north of the border, mason dixon that is

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yup crazy model mayhem for north of the border, mason dixon that is

 

Assuming the models hold onto this idea and end up being wrong this may be one nasty last minute surprise for SNE down to PHL, I cannot recall ever seeing this setup before where we did not get a relatively expansive shield of precipitation advancing north courtesy of the WAA, perhaps in the instance of a west-east moving or well entrenched anyticyclone to the north but in this case the high is retreating away from the area as usually occurs in classic SWFE/overrunning events, something just stinks about the models being so dry on precip, even if they are showing this same scenario 12 hours out I'll be extremely worried about there being a major bust.

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Assuming the models hold onto this idea and end up being wrong this may be one nasty last minute surprise for SNE down to PHL, I cannot recall ever seeing this setup before where we did not get a relatively expansive shield of precipitation advancing north courtesy of the WAA, perhaps in the instance of a west-east moving or well entrenched anyticyclone to the north but in this case the high is retreating away from the area as usually occurs in classic SWFE/overrunning events, something just stinks about the models being so dry on precip, even if they are showing this same scenario 12 hours out I'll be extremely worried about there being a major bust.

 

Agreed. I have seen an overperforming snow burst arrive with WAA many times

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