Boch23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Whats wrong with that word. I mean, if that were to verify it would be historical hit for the month of November. My guess is that they should save the term historic for when there is an imminent threat of such. So if this is still modeled as such in 5 days then that’s the time to start throwing the term around not a week out. In the mean time they should stick to "threat of a significant winter storm" if they are going to say anything at all this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 My guess is that they should save the term historic for when there is an imminent threat of such. So if this is still modeled as such in 5 days then that’s the time to start throwing the term around not a week out. In the mean time they should stick to "threat of a significant winter storm" if they are going to say anything at all this far out. or people could just understand that what he is referring to is a model output, not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 or people could just understand that what he is referring to is a model output, not a forecast. You are asking a lot from the hypers and the general public who don't understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z gfs is offshore with some snow south of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z gfs is offshore with some snow south of phl. Right where we want the euro and gfs at this range ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z (GFS) is going to create some dissension in the ranks. Fast, low, and loose. WV wins, Mid/Atl sees some flakes but nothing sticks (per this run) for DC->Bangor ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 We all know the drill, first the gfs drops, then the euro hold. Then the euro drops and the gfs picks up where the euro left off, and at the last second folds to the euro. Like clock work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z GEFS still has a wide range of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'll say one thing looking at the 12z run of the Euro coming in. That high its depicting is pretty strong. A 1040 high coming down from Canada. Very impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'll say one thing looking at the 12z run of the Euro coming in. That high its depicting is pretty strong. A 1040 high coming down from Canada. Very impressive.. Seems crazy for this time of year, but I'm actually more worried about the cold air suppressing the system rather than dealing with precip issues; at least for eastern PA. It's gonna be an interesting couple of model run cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow.. Just eye balling things here... 12z Euro crushes folks over the mountains, especially over Western North Carolina, West Virginia, western Virginia, western PA and up to Western New York. Still shows the big storm threat for next week. This run really dives that 500mb low way south on this run. Does track the low further to the coast. Not much for around here, but the idea of a big storm next looks to be on the table. Definitely interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think its fair to say there is good potential for a coastal storm. Track is still a big mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This forum died after the 18z runs and stayed dead for the 0zGFS. Why does the Euro have to torture the weenie colony? I remain unsold, from where I'm sitting the Euro is giving in to the GFS, albeit slowly. Though that 1040 seems to be playing with the Euros heartstrings... Big hit. The pretty map that everyone wants to see to come shortly. We all know the drill, first the gfs drops, then the euro hold. Then the euro drops and the gfs picks up where the euro left off, and at the last second folds to the euro. Like clock work ^^Blergh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Beat me to it, Blinkers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Beat me to it, Blinkers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I remain unsold, from where I'm sitting the Euro is giving in to the GFS, albeit slowly. Yeah that's what I'm thinking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Reminds me of Sandy and Boxing Day. Blizzard or nothing. How many times have we seen this recently though? Look out. And often it is only the Euro that sees it with its higher resolution. Yeah that's what I'm thinking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 06z GFS still flat. A few of the GEFS are wound up like the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Is it my misreading or are the various indices (nao,ao, pna and mjo) signaling something for the end of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Is it my misreading or are the various indices (nao,ao, pna and mjo) signaling something for the end of November? There is a storm signal out there, post day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 There is a storm signal out there, post day 10. Thanks for stopping by. that would be nice for Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Great discussion on the main forum, med range thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Great discussion on the main forum, med range thread Just wanted to see if I could figure out myself before looking at the the expert thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 Nothing has really changed. Generally, above normal temperature regime estimated from 11/15-25 would then become more El Nino-like 11/25-12/10. And when I say that, the reader should know that El Nino-like entails PNA, split flow. I see variability for December because of the oncoming El Nino-like forcing messing with the La Nina-like background state. We could definitely see some snow before this month is over and December could actually see a few events. I do not see any signs of anything major but I do see waves of interest. The conflicted Pacific and generally more +AO this Dec should promote higher variability than we've seen for the last 5 winters or so. If the MJO didn't exist or died out, December 2013 would most likely end up with a 1990, 1978, 1967, 1961 type of look. Should the forcing not progress into the phase 7-8-1-2 realm in December, then expect a more typical regime like the years mentioned. However, between the tropical forcing and what I am seeing with global winds / RWB, I think the NAO / split team combo should form 11/25-12/10. Low confidence for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Reminds me of Sandy and Boxing Day. Blizzard or nothing. How many times have we seen this recently though? Look out. And often it is only the Euro that sees it with its higher resolution. The GFS brought boxing day back before the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 HM, Do you think if outside forcing agents are absent or muted (not that they will be nor do I expect them to be) that the "natural state" of this winter is some sort of -epo/+pna and +ao/+nao combo? I tried different time scales for the fall, so depending on them, the pacific credit changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 It is very hard to say how the background state will be based on the fall pattern. We have seen wild shifts from El Nino-like in October to more typical La Nina-like circulation. The mean -PDO / cool ENSO background is definitely more hidden this year. I would say the background is still an Aleutian High / RNA style jet across North America this winter; however, I think El Nino-like periods will force a hybrid scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It is very hard to say how the background state will be based on the fall pattern. We have seen wild shifts from El Nino-like in October to more typical La Nina-like circulation. The mean -PDO / cool ENSO background is definitely more hidden this year. I would say the background is still an Aleutian High / RNA style jet across North America this winter; however, I think El Nino-like periods will force a hybrid scenario. HM, Thank-you. Just judging from how November is going along and how the mid nov to mid dec seems extremely volatile (wrt modeling solutions), Sure seems its not going to be an easy winter for medium/long range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Tony, if we were to use only the November SST profile in the Northeast Pacific, we can establish some interesting analogs. In the Mid Atlantic forum, I did this with just neutrals but you only end up with a couple. So, today, I used all ENSO. The years closest to November, so far, are 2004, 2000, 1996, 1989, 1985, 1972 and 1961. They all had a concentrated warm pool between 175-135°W and 35-55°N. There were years that were shifted west, too. These were 2007, 2001, 1994, 1990, 1974, 1971, 1964 and 1955. Below, are the SST anomaly images, their subsequent November, December and DJF temperature averages rolled forward. The DJF image may be more useful than the December image to gauge the warm pools potential impact. For example, December 1972 was solid cold western 2/3s of CONUS while 96/61 were more central and 2004 looked like a nino. Obviously 2000, 1989 and 1985 were downright brutal. The one thing they all had in common is that they displaced the cold out of Alaska into North America, SOMEWHERE. The WPO seemed to contribute. If this is the background state, then December could potentially be very cold if the tropical forcing amplifies the high pressure over the warm pool. If the forcing conflicts with that, then it is back to confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.