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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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Whats wrong with that word.  I mean, if that were to verify it would be historical hit for the month of November.  

 

My guess is that they should save the term historic for when there is an imminent threat of such. So if this is still modeled as such in 5 days then that’s the time to start throwing the term around not a week out. In the mean time they should stick to "threat of a significant winter storm" if they are going to say anything at all this far out.

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My guess is that they should save the term historic for when there is an imminent threat of such. So if this is still modeled as such in 5 days then that’s the time to start throwing the term around not a week out. In the mean time they should stick to "threat of a significant winter storm" if they are going to say anything at all this far out.

or people could just understand that what he is referring to is a model output, not a forecast.   

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I'll say one thing looking at the 12z run of the Euro coming in.  That high its depicting is pretty strong.  A 1040 high coming down from Canada. Very impressive.. 

Seems crazy for this time of year, but I'm actually more worried about the cold air suppressing the system rather than dealing with precip issues; at least for eastern PA. It's gonna be an interesting couple of model run cycles. 

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Wow.. Just eye balling things here... 12z Euro crushes folks over the mountains, especially over Western North Carolina, West Virginia, western Virginia, western PA and up to Western New York.  

 

Still shows the big storm threat for next week.  This run really dives that 500mb low way south on this run.  Does track the low further to the coast.  Not much for around here, but the idea of a big storm next looks to be on the table. Definitely interesting for sure.  

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This forum died after the 18z runs and stayed dead for the 0zGFS.  Why does the Euro have to torture the weenie colony? I remain unsold, from where I'm sitting the Euro is giving in to the GFS, albeit slowly. Though that 1040 seems to be playing with the Euros heartstrings...

 

Big hit. The pretty map that everyone wants to see to come shortly. 

 

We all know the drill, first the gfs drops, then the euro hold. Then the euro drops and the gfs picks up where the euro left off, and at the last second folds to the euro. Like clock work

 
^^Blergh.
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Nothing has really changed. Generally, above normal temperature regime estimated from 11/15-25 would then become more El Nino-like 11/25-12/10. And when I say that, the reader should know that El Nino-like entails PNA, split flow. I see variability for December because of the oncoming El Nino-like forcing messing with the La Nina-like background state. We could definitely see some snow before this month is over and December could actually see a few events. I do not see any signs of anything major but I do see waves of interest. The conflicted Pacific and generally more +AO this Dec should promote higher variability than we've seen for the last 5 winters or so.

 

If the MJO didn't exist or died out, December 2013 would most likely end up with a 1990, 1978, 1967, 1961 type of look. Should the forcing not progress into the phase 7-8-1-2 realm in December, then expect a more typical regime like the years mentioned. However, between the tropical forcing and what I am seeing with global winds / RWB, I think the NAO / split team combo should form 11/25-12/10. Low confidence for sure...

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It is very hard to say how the background state will be based on the fall pattern. We have seen wild shifts from El Nino-like in October to more typical La Nina-like circulation. The mean -PDO / cool ENSO background is definitely more hidden this year.

I would say the background is still an Aleutian High / RNA style jet across North America this winter; however, I think El Nino-like periods will force a hybrid scenario.

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It is very hard to say how the background state will be based on the fall pattern. We have seen wild shifts from El Nino-like in October to more typical La Nina-like circulation. The mean -PDO / cool ENSO background is definitely more hidden this year.

I would say the background is still an Aleutian High / RNA style jet across North America this winter; however, I think El Nino-like periods will force a hybrid scenario.

HM,

 

Thank-you.  Just judging from how November is going along and how the mid nov to mid dec seems extremely volatile (wrt modeling solutions), Sure seems its not going to be an easy winter for medium/long range forecasts.

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Tony, if we were to use only the November SST profile in the Northeast Pacific, we can establish some interesting analogs. In the Mid Atlantic forum, I did this with just neutrals but you only end up with a couple. So, today, I used all ENSO.

 

The years closest to November, so far, are 2004, 2000, 1996, 1989, 1985, 1972 and 1961. They all had a concentrated warm pool between 175-135°W and 35-55°N.

 

There were years that were shifted west, too. These were 2007, 2001, 1994, 1990, 1974, 1971, 1964 and 1955. Below, are the SST anomaly images, their subsequent November, December and DJF temperature averages rolled forward. The DJF image may be more useful than the December image to gauge the warm pools potential impact. For example, December 1972 was solid cold western 2/3s of CONUS while 96/61 were more central and 2004 looked like a nino. Obviously 2000, 1989 and 1985 were downright brutal. The one thing they all had in common is that they displaced the cold out of Alaska into North America, SOMEWHERE. The WPO seemed to contribute.

 

If this is the background state, then December could potentially be very cold if the tropical forcing amplifies the high pressure over the warm pool. If the forcing conflicts with that, then it is back to confusion.

 

post-176-0-30864500-1384544029_thumb.jpg

post-176-0-36268500-1384544039_thumb.jpg

post-176-0-54254500-1384544052_thumb.jpg

post-176-0-05086300-1384544067_thumb.jpg

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