tombo82685 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 can we dare to say once we warm up next week, the ensuing cold front could have thunderstorm chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 !8z GFS caved to the euro. Fri- Sat storm well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 The 12z Euro brings some rain into Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 that 12z euro long range was horrendous. I didn't see the 850s, but it would say snow isn't done for the far nw burbs yet assuming the 850s are cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 At this time of the year, with early september sun angle, isn't it more then just what the 850's show, in terms of snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 At this time of the year, with early september sun angle, isn't it more then just what the 850's show, in terms of snowfall? yes, but i have the surface temps, and for the far nw burbs its like 32-35...you should have 850s of atleast -4 or greater right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 ugly... can't stand this weather pattern anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 that 12z euro long range was horrendous. I didn't see the 850s, but it would say snow isn't done for the far nw burbs yet assuming the 850s are cold enough 0z shoved that boundary north about 75 miles. We're still on the wrong side of it for Wed-Thu next week (40's/50's) but the subzero 850's are thankfully north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 That pesky NAO block we are dealing with currently is going to retrograde and get stuck. The changing Pacific into a more niña-like state is going to force a trough over western Canada. This means the block will have to head southward. Depending on how exactly this goes down will determine if we see that "weird" snow potential mid-April that I was worried about. This will come in between warm shots so I don't expect it to be anything long-lasting. The time frame to watch, as you all might know per modeling, would be next weekend and early that following week (like 4/12-4/15ish). If the block simply absorbs into a building eastern US ridge with nothing undercutting it, then we just get cool for a day or so with no real snowflake potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 well the 12z euro brings the 540 line down close into the area next weekend. poconos look a little white, burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 well the 12z euro brings the 540 line down close into the area next weekend. poconos look a little white, burbs? poconos yes, burbs no, to warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 If the block simply absorbs into a building eastern US ridge with nothing undercutting it, then we just get cool for a day or so with no real snowflake potential. And that would be the best possible outcome...for me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 need to lift that warm front north about 150-175 miles on the 0z Euro...it looks like the backdoor stalls out over the Delmarva... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 12z euro looks pretty warm into the east at hour 240.. If the dry conditions continue... could any dry condition create feedback for a hotter summer, especially late summer early fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 12z euro looks pretty warm into the east at hour 240.. If the dry conditions continue... could any dry condition create feedback for a hotter summer, especially late summer early fall? Locally it would not hurt, but larger impact would still be based if the central conus remains in drought. I don't know if there is enough time left this spring to alleviate that, its still a pretty big area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 12z euro looks pretty warm into the east at hour 240.. If the dry conditions continue... could any dry condition create feedback for a hotter summer, especially late summer early fall? The 12z euro has like 1-2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 I didn't look at the precip output... just the 500mb pattern and the 850 temps. Guess the dryness won't be a problem if it verifies. Just trying to spark some MR/LR disco here, seems like it goes dead for awhile around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 I didn't look at the precip output... just the 500mb pattern and the 850 temps. Guess the dryness won't be a problem if it verifies. Just trying to spark some MR/LR disco here, seems like it goes dead for awhile around here.. This board's first and foremost fan has been the snow hound. Therefore, its not at all surprising that things quiet down as we head into the warm season. I know I look at the weather back east less this time of year, since I'm no longer on the lookout for potential archive events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 euro caved for a run and is showing warmth in Philly on Wednesday & Thursday. Euro sniffs out 80+ on Thursday. Burp run or start of a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 euro caved for a run and is showing warmth in Philly on Wednesday & Thursday. Euro sniffs out 80+ on Thursday. Burp run or start of a trend? It's also trying to sniff out some instabilty advection ahead of the front as well since the warmth is established on this run. A low CAPE high shear squall line still not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 NAM is honking 80-85 on Wednesday west of the GSP in NJ...and it's decent at sniffing out backdoor sh*t...might be time to go all in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Euro is in for warmth...75-80 on Wed PM. #tooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Been out for the count these past 3 weeks, good to be back!..so bring on the warmth.. Unfortunately i have no hope on the CT coast at this time of the year. What will it take to mix out these blocks, geeees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Been out for the count these past 3 weeks, good to be back!..so bring on the warmth.. Unfortunately i have no hope on the CT coast at this time of the year. What will it take to mix out these blocks, geeees. I'm glad to see you are feeling better man. The big question this morning is, "when does this warm period end?" Some of the guidance is insisting on changing the pattern quickly toward 4/20. While this is possible, I think the guidance is just picking up on a nasty cold front/transient trough...quite possibly noise. IOW, I'm not buying the quick change back. I'm thinking the +PNA returns in the final 5 days of April, possibly even waiting for the start of May. Notice the nice strat-trop. connection with the developing -WPO anomaly and the clear retrograding system through mid-April. This is a classic response to the tropical forcing and was well predicted by all. Also note the "final warming" beginning in the upper levels of the stratosphere 4/16-4/20 with the +AO period coming up being the weak "-20 day" signal to some extent. I think any real legit drop in the AO will wait until early-mid May when the strat breaks down and transitions into summer, mixing with the tropical forcing signal (this is of course never easy to predict). With springtime wavelengths, the cold may first center west of us once the PNA ridge goes up and retrogression is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I'm glad to see you are feeling better man. The big question this morning is, "when does this warm period end?" Some of the guidance is insisting on changing the pattern quickly toward 4/20. While this is possible, I think the guidance is just picking up on a nasty cold front/transient trough...quite possibly noise. IOW, I'm not buying the quick change back. I'm thinking the +PNA returns in the final 5 days of April, possibly even waiting for the start of May. Notice the nice strat-trop. connection with the developing -WPO anomaly and the clear retrograding system through mid-April. This is a classic response to the tropical forcing and was well predicted by all. Also note the "final warming" beginning in the upper levels of the stratosphere 4/16-4/20 with the +AO period coming up being the weak "-20 day" signal to some extent. I think any real legit drop in the AO will wait until early-mid May when the strat breaks down and transitions into summer, mixing with the tropical forcing signal (this is of course never easy to predict). With springtime wavelengths, the cold may first center west of us once the PNA ridge goes up and retrogression is complete. Thanks man. Your first paragraph there makes sense to me considering the Western Canada trough, +AO spike... ensembles have just about the entire conus in above average hghts by day 15 after said transient trough. Nice over view on the forcing at play now, still trying to catch up on whats happening out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 NAM is honking 80-85 on Wednesday west of the GSP in NJ...and it's decent at sniffing out backdoor sh*t...might be time to go all in... & what's the NAM sniffing now for Thurs - 50's Bucks County while it's 80 at Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 This looks like forecast fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Backdoor front a bit less aggressive on Thursday...could still coax 80 out of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Hi guys, Been pretty busy as of late but I managed to find some time to try something new... let me know your thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Hi guys, Been pretty busy as of late but I managed to find some time to try something new... let me know your thoughts... Cool. Is that index based on the EOFs of the 500 hPa height field? If you used an EOF analysis, I'm curious to know what the EOFs look like and how much variance they explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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