tombo82685 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It could be a looooonnnngggg winter. The GFS had it, the Euro didnt. Then they both didnt, Then the Euro had it and the GFS didnt, Then they both had it. Now the Euro is losing it. Looks like the short wave should be over Alaska for the 00z run. Tony, do you know of any site that keeps track of teleconnections for the months of the year in the past? I'm curious to see what winters looked like when the nao has been negative all of october pretty much. Granted it wasn't all west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Tony, do you know of any site that keeps track of teleconnections for the months of the year in the past? I'm curious to see what winters looked like when the nao has been negative all of october pretty much. Granted it wasn't all west based. I'm not Tony but... I would think this is what you are looking for. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I'm not Tony but... I would think this is what you are looking for. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml thanks ray, what months are these? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Like the euro op, the ens mean has backed off on the wed storm. The 12z individual members only have 12 that give a tenth of more of rain from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 thanks ray, what months are these? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table I am Tony, October is 3rd in from the right. Remember Chuck? He used to post that the NAO for October flipped for the upcoming winter. Lately I dont think its worked and don't think its track record would pass any statistical tests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I am Tony, October is 3rd in from the right. Remember Chuck? He used to post that the NAO for October flipped for the upcoming winter. Lately I dont think its worked and don't think its track record would pass any statistical tests. Thanks Tony, I was going to see if the nao had any correlation for the rest of the winter. From what you said it doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 0z euro ens members showed a little more support for something wednesday-thursday timeframe. About 18 or so now have at least a tenth compared to 12 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 0z euro ens members showed a little more support for something wednesday-thursday timeframe. About 18 or so now have at least a tenth compared to 12 yesterday. 12z GFS shows some decent organization of the coastal low tues-wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 NAM has problems with the BL but shows some wet flakes mixing in N and W of the city Wednesday night. http://mag.ncep.noaa...0_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 NAM has problems with the BL but shows some wet flakes mixing in N and W of the city Wednesday night. http://mag.ncep.noaa...0_500_thick.gif this is for abe at hr 81, and that does not support anything except rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Forgot to check soundings....thanks Tom. A cold rain at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 CTP has removed the mention they had of snow in their latest disco, FWIW. I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 CTP has removed the mention they had of snow in their latest disco, FWIW. I'm not surprised. what areas did they have flakes for? Not the susq valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 what areas did they have flakes for? Not the susq valley? ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BE A NEW FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON FOR WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SNOW EVEN BECOMING A POSSIBILITY DURING THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST Seems like it was a generic 'Flakes?' with the typical NW slant. There wasn't much of a reason for posting it other than 'SNOW? MAYBE? COULD IT?' It just surprised me to see it even mentioned in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 what areas did they have flakes for? Not the susq valley? They have flakes in unv's forecast. Nothing extraordinary for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 They have flakes in unv's forecast. Nothing extraordinary for this time of year. Yea I figured for unv and areas with elevation. Def think some lake effect starts up but that should be focused in areas off the lake with elev like Bradford area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Adam, maybe another stj disturbance circled in red to watch for end of the week? Though it doesn't look as robust or as far north as the one early this week. Also, the area circled in green is that blocking of the polar jet with no corresponding +aam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Do they have AO numbers like they do for the nao? I'm curious to see which plays more of role in terms of our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Do they have AO numbers like they do for the nao? I'm curious to see which plays more of role in terms of our winter.Our local weather is more highly correlated with a west based NAO index, but the flavor of the winter is generally driven more by the AO/NAM state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Adam, maybe another stj disturbance circled in red to watch for end of the week? Though it doesn't look as robust or as far north as the one early this week.Yep.Also, the area circled in green is that blocking of the polar jet with no corresponding +aam?With small magnitudes, I'd generally just chalk it up to the GFS being beyond its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Do they have AO numbers like they do for the nao? I'm curious to see which plays more of role in terms of our winter. This is a good site for monthly avg data in past. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Yep.With small magnitudes, I'd generally just chalk it up to the GFS being beyond its range. So that picture i posted, the first 144hrs things aren't blocky, because of the corresponding +aam? Because the teleconnections show blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 So that picture i posted, the first 144hrs things aren't blocky, because of the corresponding +aam? Because the teleconnections show blocking.The polar jet is blocky (the blues from 45-65N) and the subtropical jet is enhanced (the yellows 30-45N) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The polar jet is blocky (the blues from 45-65N) and the subtropical jet is enhanced (the yellows 30-45N) So I have it backwards the corresponding -aam with the +aam is the blockiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 So I have it backwards the corresponding -aam with the +aam is the blockiness-AAM can mean blockiness, but it can also just mean the jet is displaced. You'll get the hang of it the more you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 -AAM can mean blockiness, but it can also just mean the jet is displaced. You'll get the hang of it the more you look at it. Yea i know its going to take some time to decipher things. That is why i was wondering if there was any past AAM maps that show different scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 for the AAM below off the gfs, is that a global forecast or just for the influences on north america? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Global zonal average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Global zonal average So, how do you know when you see the stj getting active that it affects our weather? Or if their is blocking that its located on our side and not by Asia. Might be a dumb question, but just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 So, how do you know when you see the stj getting active that it affects our weather? Or if their is blocking that its located on our side and not by Asia. Might be a dumb question, but just curious.You have to look at maps that are not zonally averaged That said, the Pacific sector dominates these maps due to the Tibetan plateau and East-Asian jet. But those things have downstream effects across the CONUS in terms of Pacific blocking and the activity of the STJ in the East Pacific and across the CONUS. It'll be easier to see this stuff in real time as we head into winter. You're asking good questions, so keep bringing them up and we'll discuss them as they become relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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