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Medium/Long Range thread


HM

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It could be a looooonnnngggg winter.  The GFS had it, the Euro didnt. Then they both didnt, Then the Euro had it and the GFS didnt, Then they both had it. Now the Euro is losing it.

 

Looks like the short wave should be over Alaska for the 00z run.

Tony, do you know of any site that keeps track of teleconnections for the months of the year in the past? I'm curious to see what winters looked like when the nao has been negative all of october pretty much. Granted it wasn't all west based.

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Tony, do you know of any site that keeps track of teleconnections for the months of the year in the past? I'm curious to see what winters looked like when the nao has been negative all of october pretty much. Granted it wasn't all west based.

I'm not Tony but... I would think this is what you are looking for.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

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I am Tony, October is 3rd in from the right.  Remember Chuck? He used to post that the NAO for October flipped for the upcoming winter. Lately I dont think its worked and don't think its track record would pass any statistical tests.

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I am Tony, October is 3rd in from the right.  Remember Chuck? He used to post that the NAO for October flipped for the upcoming winter. Lately I dont think its worked and don't think its track record would pass any statistical tests.

Thanks Tony, I was going to see if the nao had any correlation for the rest of the winter. From what you said it doesn't look like it.

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0z euro ens members showed a little more support for something wednesday-thursday timeframe. About 18 or so now have at least a tenth compared to 12 yesterday.

12z GFS shows some decent organization of the coastal low tues-wed:

uny7egyz.jpg

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what areas did they have flakes for? Not the susq valley?

ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BE A NEW FAIRLY POTENT

SHORTWAVE THAT THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON

FOR WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCATTERED

SHOWERS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SNOW

EVEN BECOMING A POSSIBILITY DURING THE COLDER PARTS OF THE

DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST

 

Seems like it was a generic 'Flakes?' with the typical NW slant. There wasn't much of a reason for posting it other than 'SNOW? MAYBE? COULD IT?' It just surprised me to see it even mentioned in the first place.

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Adam, maybe another stj disturbance circled in red to watch for end of the week? Though it doesn't look as robust or as far north as the one early this week.

Yep.

Also, the area circled in green is that blocking of the polar jet with no corresponding +aam?

With small magnitudes, I'd generally just chalk it up to the GFS being beyond its range.
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So, how do you know when you see the stj getting active that it affects our weather? Or if their is blocking that its located on our side and not by Asia. Might be a dumb question, but just curious.

You have to look at maps that are not zonally averaged :)

That said, the Pacific sector dominates these maps due to the Tibetan plateau and East-Asian jet. But those things have downstream effects across the CONUS in terms of Pacific blocking and the activity of the STJ in the East Pacific and across the CONUS.

It'll be easier to see this stuff in real time as we head into winter. You're asking good questions, so keep bringing them up and we'll discuss them as they become relevant.

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