NJHurricane Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Starting to wonder if this wet trend will continue right through the summer....and if it were to be capped of by a tropical system or remnants... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I don't mind the threat of rainshowers/storms each day...as long as it's warm to go along with it. What I don't care for is endless cool, overcast days and drizzle. As long as we can top 80 degrees each day with intermitttant sun breaks, I'm ok with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 after this weekends/early next week warm up, we're back to normal'ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Lovely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Mitch told me the CFS loves this upcoming winter, a positive PDO and west based weak el-nino. Jack's Newfoundland pool though would outlook a positive NAO for the winter. BTW Last year it (NF pool) outlooked positive and we averaged close to normal. (Index number anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Get used to this pattern the next 2-3 weeks. The chances of any more heat waves diminishing daily. And here are the Euro Ensembles. Split flow, mean trough in the east, no signs of letting up, or a resurgence of the WAR. My only question is how much of an influence does the MJO have in the H5 synoptic pattern over our lattitudes and higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 Get used to this pattern the next 2-3 weeks. The chances of any more heat waves diminishing daily. And here are the Euro Ensembles. Split flow, mean trough in the east, no signs of letting up, or a resurgence of the WAR. My only question is how much of an influence does the MJO have in the H5 synoptic pattern over our lattitudes and higher? Through at least Mid-Aug we should be heat wave free. I would think the heat tries to come east at some point late Aug/early September. ECMWF MJO into phase 2 for mid-Aug= cool. CFS weeklies are cool through mid Aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 4, 2013 Share Posted August 4, 2013 Through at least Mid-Aug we should be heat wave free. I would think the heat tries to come east at some point late Aug/early September. ECMWF MJO into phase 2 for mid-Aug= cool. CFS weeklies are cool through mid Aug. It wouldn't surprise me if we get a 90+ stretch in late August. The long range GFS is trying to nudge the trough out in very late stages of the model run. I can see Labor Day weekend being warmer than what we're getting now/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Here comes the winter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 ^^^I support this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 I've been a little out of the loop lately but early September holds some potential for interesting weather. Similar to last year, the tropical forcing could favor a period of about a week or so where we get the trough to our west with an assertive Bermuda High. Last year, this led to 3 rounds of memorable severe weather (Kent, Camden counties and Queens all had tornadoes) with 1 giant NE episode to end the warmth (mid September turned cooler). Finally, tropical probabilities have increased for genesis near/off the SE coast into the western Atlantic during this time as well. Last year, the "MJO" progressed quickly and brought a round of pretty unfavorable forcing by the second week of September. That may not be the case this year; although, it is still very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 lol "MJO" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 the euro ens, days 11-16, go right back to where we are now, maybe not as cool but low 80s. Keeps majority of the heat in the center of the nation. I wonder if we can muster some nw flow mcs's or derechnados in that kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 lol "MJO" Must Jump Out (of the COD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 In a thank-you Captain Obvious mode as we are heading toward the climatological peak of the tropical weather season, all the models have the MJO entering a favorable phase for tropical development on our side of the hemisphere. I must admit I havent been checking if these non-COD outlooks have verified earlier this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Euro ensembles starting to agree with the OP With a mean trough working its way into the eastern conus by early/mid next week. Gfs still wants to torch us. Good model battle going on. Anyone know if the MJO would support the gfs or euro forecast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 gfs is starting to come in line with the euro in regards to its 6z forecast of losing the heat and going to a wetter look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 gfs is starting to come in line with the euro in regards to its 6z forecast of losing the heat and going to a wetter look. Good its starting to get a little dry around here. What does the weather look like for next week? Family vacation time and hoping its not like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Euro going to town in the med-long range with a big cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Euro euro on the wall, who's the WtF of them all: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 That's quite a cutoff/trough on the Euro/GFS in the first week of Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 2nd week in a row that the Euro bashes us with a system out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 2nd week in a row that the Euro bashes us with a system out of the Gulf. yea, it shows it this sunday. The euro ens mean isn't all that excited.Looks like about 10-14 of the individual members show something affecting the region other then the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 yea, it shows it this sunday. The euro ens mean isn't all that excited.Looks like about 10-14 of the individual members show something affecting the region other then the shore. Very poor qpf verification for the Euro off the FL coast this morning; but we have seen course corrections before and I suppose its still more about the block than what's going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 After this warm week coming up, looks like a strong cold front that may pull some gulf moisture with it next weekend with some good rains. After that, the euro and gfs have been showing the possibility of widespread frost for the area later on the following week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 After this warm week coming up, looks like a strong cold front that may pull some gulf moisture with it next weekend with some good rains. After that, the euro and gfs have been showing the possibility of widespread frost for the area later on the following weekAnd then after that, looks like a return of the Indian summer. Exciting stuff........PAC jet gets raging and really pumps up the WAR/SE ridge. 582-588dm heights for a good amount of time. Something the gfs has been showing in the long range. The 0z euro delays the post fropa warm Up due to the fact that it drops a piece of energy into the base of the trough and slows it down. Either way, it's pumping a 588-592dm ridge over the Atlantic. How far west it extends is a battle between the gfs and euro now. Something of note, the 6z gfs has a drop coming through around 170hours. As it hits the coast (offshore), it stalls as it hits the ridge and dumps some decent rain along the boundary.i know it's out there in time, but if the ridge extends west, and that fropa stalls closer to land, could be a prolific rain maker. Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Golf, golf and more golf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Golf, golf and more golf! with the way how that ridging is taking shape on the west coast i would imagine that trof in the center of the country starts kicking east, for the last half of october. First half definitely seems above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 with the way how that ridging is taking shape on the west coast i would imagine that trof in the center of the country starts kicking east, for the last half of october. First half definitely seems above normal Have to see how strong that WAR flexes it's muscle. Could be a delayed, but not denied solution as far as the trough goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 with the way how that ridging is taking shape on the west coast i would imagine that trof in the center of the country starts kicking east, for the last half of october. First half definitely seems above normal Have to see how strong that WAR flexes it's muscle. Could be a delayed, but not denied solution as far as the trough goes. The op euro keeps us under some pretty strong ridging for most of it's medium-long range. Let the Indian summer continue: The ensembles agree, and I'd have to agree with how the pacific is acting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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