Medium/Long Range thread

[HM]

I wanted to put this here because it will get buried in the banter thread:

Here are some select analogs since 1950 and their warmest periods in April for Philadelphia:

1957: 4/21 88 and 4/27 89
1966: 4/21 78
1969: 4/27 86
1973: 4/22 86
1985: 4/19, 4/22 90 ... 82 4/26
1990: 4/23 80 and 4/26-4/28 92-92-90
1994: 4/19 23 and 90 4/27
1995: 4/19 84, 4/22 79 4/27 79
1996: 4/22 82

The analogs overall suggest we warm 4/19-4/22 and again 4/26-28 both of which could easily hold the peak temperature for the month. I just ripped the sensible CPC analogs, by the way, so this is just for fun.

Finally, it was also noted in there that the last "burp" from the -AO regime looks to suppress the first southern wave across the Great Plains next week. This will seriously reduce the extent of the severe weather (limited to southern areas) or possibly eliminate it altogether. The effects from the changing regime are clearly more gradual than first indicated but not by much. There are additional waves to come post-cold blast.

[ptb127]

What are the chances the -NAO becomes east based or that we can get a strato cooling event to reverse things up? Especially for the late spring/summer months?

[ptb127]

Any news on any warming??

[Harbourton]

Opening of the baseball season in the east looks to be brutally cold.

 

[noctilucent]

 

 

The new Dr. NO!

[phlwx]

We've been colder in recent years in early April.  Early April '07 will probably be colder than what we're poised to get..

 

Opening of the baseball season in the east looks to be brutally cold.

[Harbourton]

Oh boy! Just when you thought he pattern was collapsing. 

 

[chubbs]

18z gfs puts down 1-3" from I95 to the coast for the Tues AM rush. Surface temps below freezing except near the shore. 

[JamieOber]

What's the word on the new Euro Weeklies?

[Mike.Ventrice]

What's the word on the new Euro Weeklies?

 

Much warmer in Week 2 with +5 deg warmth from Ohio valley through southern NY.. weeks 3 and 4 still have positive anomalies for much of the central and eastern U.S.

[tombo82685]

Much warmer in Week 2 with +5 deg warmth from Ohio valley through southern NY.. weeks 3 and 4 still have positive anomalies for much of the central and eastern U.S.

what is driving the warmth? I'm assuming the -nao is gone but i thought i heard rumblings of the pacific getting ugly

[Mike.Ventrice]

what is driving the warmth? I'm assuming the -nao is gone but i thought i heard rumblings of the pacific getting ugly

 

The ridge that should bring warm weather over the north and interior West looks to push eastward across the heart of the nation and over the northeast by the end of week 2. EC ensembles yesterday showed +10F over a good deal of the east coast, and continues the signal today as well. Good warm signal over Southwest and CA as easterly flow from a cut-off low over the Deep South and another ridge building over the Northwest during the latter half of week 2 looks to promote some good downsloping over Sierra-Nevadas. 

[Mitchell Gaines]

Synoptic pattern looks very favorable April 8-10th in the plains for severe weather, Perhaps moving east OH valley April 11th and east coast for April 12th. Of course we're only 13 days away lol.

[HM]

The tornado count is about to pick up in earnest. You have to admire the temperature gradient and classic early spring pattern next week. We, of course, have to deal with warm front woes but that's a lot more tolerable for Adam than what we just went through, lol.

The last of the two nor'easters expected for early spring looks to be coming at the end of the week. The good news is that both of these are/were nothing like 3/6. There is still a chance the end of the week could see more phasing involved, i.e. stronger cyclone, but the fast motion should still prevent something like 3/6 from happening.

Bring on convective season.

[ptb127]

Looking forward to the warmup!

[am19psu]

The tornado count is about to pick up in earnest. You have to admire the temperature gradient and classic early spring pattern next week. We, of course, have to deal with warm front woes but that's a lot more tolerable for Adam than what we just went through, lol.

Correct

 

April 10 is looking like a strong call for 70+

[HM]

 

Correct

 

April 10 is looking like a strong call for 70+

 

The +AO spike being signaled on the models could be the "-20 day" response to the final warming. This year's FW will be late, depending on how you define it; but, you can see the top layer from 10mb-1mb decelerating/warming.

I don't think, NAO-wise, this will be much help but there could be a lag beyond 4/10. Perhaps once the destruction of the upper level vortex is complete, say at 20-1mb, we will get a +NAO spike. Tough to say at this point because the NAO is more tropospherically-embedded. Mid to late April will probably be very "up and down" for us but with really warm "up" periods.

[HM]

On a semi-related note, what set of circumstances would have to be in play at this point for forecasters to go "cold summer"...especially over the E USA? Do you ever get the impression short-term (a few years) trends sort of cloud judgement?

You may see the same and possibly accurate forecast this summer, "warmer than normal summer and active tropical season." The forecast may even go "out on a limb" and say something like, "not as warm as the last 2 summers but still overall above normal."

Between 2000-2012 generally: 2000, 2004 and 2009 were cold, cold. But, 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2008 were generally normal (although each one of them had periods that you wouldn't consider normal). The other 6 were pretty warm overall.

[tombo82685]

On a semi-related note, what set of circumstances would have to be in play at this point for forecasters to go "cold summer"...especially over the E USA? Do you ever get the impression short-term (a few years) trends sort of cloud judgement?

You may see the same and possibly accurate forecast this summer, "warmer than normal summer and active tropical season." The forecast may even go "out on a limb" and say something like, "not as warm as the last 2 summers but still overall above normal."

Between 2000-2012 generally: 2000, 2004 and 2009 were cold, cold. But, 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2008 were generally normal (although each one of them had periods that you wouldn't consider normal). The other 6 were pretty warm overall.

I remember 09 pretty well. That was a cool wet summer. We lost one of our greens due to wet wilt. Basically the soil was so wet and then it got really hot. Oxygen was depelted for the roots and the grass was cooked. That june it rained like half the month.

[famartin]

I remember 09 pretty well. That was a cool wet summer. We lost one of our greens due to wet wilt. Basically the soil was so wet and then it got really hot. Oxygen was depelted for the roots and the grass was cooked. That june it rained like half the month.

I liked that summer, I came back on vacation in August and everything was sooooo green.  Like emerald city green.  For someone living in the desert, that means something

[iceman56]

I remember 09 pretty well. That was a cool wet summer. We lost one of our greens due to wet wilt. Basically the soil was so wet and then it got really hot. Oxygen was depelted for the roots and the grass was cooked. That june it rained like half the month.

Yes, a banner year for tomato blight that been a serious problem ever since.    Also in peppers and potatoes.

[HM]

 

I remember 09 pretty well. That was a cool wet summer. We lost one of our greens due to wet wilt. Basically the soil was so wet and then it got really hot. Oxygen was depelted for the roots and the grass was cooked. That june it rained like half the month.

 

Interesting, thanks for the info. I suppose then the big question for this June is, "where will the upper low sit?" Will it end up over the Great Lakes or northern Plains or what....?

In 2008, a year with a decent amount of analogous features on a large-scale to this year, the low was well west in June and gave us one of the warmest Junes ever (+4 in PHL with a few, long-lasting, heat waves). I know in 2009, there was also volcanism to consider that significantly impacted the polar regions.

[JamieOber]

Yes, a banner year for tomato blight that been a serious problem ever since.    Also in peppers and potatoes.

 

Yep. Got it in my garden last year as well.

 

  

Interesting, thanks for the info. I suppose then the big question for this June is, "where will the upper low sit?" Will it end up over the Great Lakes or northern Plains or what....?

In 2008, a year with a decent amount of analogous features on a large-scale to this year, the low was well west in June and gave us one of the warmest Junes ever (+4 in PHL with a few, long-lasting, heat waves). I know in 2009, there was also volcanism to consider that significantly impacted the polar regions.

So....today's 12Z GFS having a pretty meh warmup and even a high elevation snow event up this-a-way mid-month was just the GFS being the GFS...right? 

[HM]

 

So....today's 12Z GFS having a pretty meh warmup and even a high elevation snow event up this-a-way mid-month was just the GFS being the GFS...right? 

 

lol...

This "warm up" should be described as "warm shot" to better prepare you for some disappointment.

I see nothing through May that would be this onslaught of late spring/summer type warmth that just persists straight through actual summer. You probably haven't seen your last snow and we definitely are going to have warm front woes with NAO trouble.

[ptb127]

Any update on the 12z GFS ensembles or 12z Euro?

 

And HM, way to throw cold water on any warm up chances  .. Ugh

[HM]

 

Any update on the 12z GFS ensembles or 12z Euro?

 

And HM, way to throw cold water on any warm up chances  .. Ugh

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm just trying to keep your expectations reasonable. We are going to have anomalous cold shots clear into May but the insane -AO/March pattern is over. In other words, a typical spring in the Northeast. Don't worry, some very warm days are coming! Just keep last year out of your head.

[Harbourton]

The 12Z euro is handling the Fri- Sat coastal much differently than the other global models. It's way out to sea - no precip!

[JamieOber]

  

lol...

This "warm up" should be described as "warm shot" to better prepare you for some disappointment.

I see nothing through May that would be this onslaught of late spring/summer type warmth that just persists straight through actual summer. You probably haven't seen your last snow and we definitely are going to have warm front woes with NAO trouble.

 

 

  

Don't get me wrong, I'm just trying to keep your expectations reasonable. We are going to have anomalous cold shots clear into May but the insane -AO/March pattern is over. In other words, a typical spring in the Northeast. Don't worry, some very warm days are coming! Just keep last year out of your head.

Sounds good. Keep our expectations tiny so we don't become so whiny. 

[ptb127]

You point about the cold summer thing has merit though.. It does seem like every summer in memory was pretty warm to hot.  Even if the data doesn't quite back that impression up.

[am19psu]

Agree with HM. Looks like forcing will go into the crapper as we heads towards the end of the month. I suspect we'll see 80+ some time this month (around the 18th or so?), but like HM, I'm not convinced we've seen our last subfreezing low, either.