mattie g Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 It's possible that we have seen our last 90+ degree day of the season (though I still think we sneak two or three 90 or 91 degree days). With the exception of the week of heat in mid-July, high temperatures most of the summer have been running below average. Right now, I think August continues that trend of high temperatures generally running below to near average. It's crazy to say, but it has been a fairly cool summer. I don't think DCA gets by without another 90+ day. We get a west wind in a warm airmass on a partly sunny day in the next few weeks and it'll warm up the airport/Crystal City area enough to spike the temps above 90 pretty easily. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that places near you or out near Winchester and the like could escape another 90+ day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Fantastic. test8.gif Looks good for nice weather for us and keeping some ice/snow over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Passed on to me by a friend. Summer:+0.5 to +1.0 Rainfall:10-12" #90+:45 #100+:1 All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0 Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3 Analog years:1932,34,60 Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April. Think this was another excellent call for July with July coming in at +1.4. Will go with an A-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I don't think DCA gets by without another 90+ day. We get a west wind in a warm airmass on a partly sunny day in the next few weeks and it'll warm up the airport/Crystal City area enough to spike the temps above 90 pretty easily. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that places near you or out near Winchester and the like could escape another 90+ day though. The Accuweather 45-day forecast doesn't have a 90° day. So, bring out the record book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 The Accuweather 45-day forecast doesn't have a 90° day. So, bring out the record book. Sorry, now it does -- for this Thursday. Of course, that could change. What I find interesting, though, is that every August in DC weather history has had at least one 90+ day, but not every July: July 1891 missed, even though there were ten 90+ days that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Sorry, now it does -- for this Thursday. Of course, that could change. What I find interesting, though, is that every August in DC weather history has had at least one 90+ day, but not every July: July 1891 missed, even though there were ten 90+ days that year. Sure enough, 22202 does but 22203 doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 The Accuweather 45-day forecast doesn't have a 90° day. So, bring out the record book. Since when did they go to 45 days from their already ludicrous 30 day forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Since when did they go to 45 days from their already ludicrous 30 day forecast? I don't know. I never go to their site, but I saw the thread on the W&F side and had to go look. Just dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 we might hit 90 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 What was high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 we might hit 90 today 87 today. Not even close. The streak lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 87 today. Not even close. The streak lives! wunderground showed an ob of 88 earlier tho i don't see it now looking. didn't think we'd get there per se but it was 87 at 2 with a west wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 wunderground showed an ob of 88 earlier tho i don't see it now looking. didn't think we'd get there per se but it was 87 at 2 with a west wind. we might of hit 88 not sure http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 pretty impressive streak for the dog days of Summer. winter is over though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 we might of hit 88 not sure http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html Yep 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 88 our first non minus day in the last 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Looks like a +3 per day week starting Monday and if so the JJA average well may be in +0.5 to +1.0 and Mr Allen would bullseye the seasonal temperature call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 it is going to end up being an excellent outlook...2 out of 3 months excellent and even decent on August....and seasonal call going to be stellar....The 90+ call is a bad one, but I don't think missing those bonus predictions takes away at all...they can give an outlook a little boost but I wouldn't deduct anything...And you were right about the below average 30 day period, it just ran mid-late month to mid-late month so the monthly number could not work out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 it is going to end up being an excellent outlook...2 out of 3 months excellent and even decent on August....and seasonal call going to be stellar....The 90+ call is a bad one, but I don't think missing those bonus predictions takes away at all...they can give an outlook a little boost but I wouldn't deduct anything...I dunno.. The 90+ is as good a verifier of how someone thinks the overall outlook will occur as any. 45 implies a summer that is noticeably hot IMO. Shouldn't be such a disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I dunno.. The 90+ is as good a verifier of how someone thinks the overall outlook will occur as any. 45 implies a summer that is noticeably hot IMO. Shouldn't be such a disconnect.Also, not real close on precipitation -- prediction of 10-12 inches vs almost 16 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 26, 2013 Author Share Posted August 26, 2013 Also, not real close on precipitation -- prediction of 10-12 inches vs almost 16 so far.I think "not real close" is an incorrect assessment in the overall. 10.4" is normal for DCA, 10-12 call is an "around average to above average call" and it's going to end up above average to well above average with DCA coming in a bit above most everyone els. He certainly recognized it would not be another dry summer. 10-12 call with 15-16 realized is solid, B/B-. I also agree with Mr Z. that the 90+ is an example of icing on the cake and not the cake. Getting the seasonal right is front line, the monthlies the next tier, precipitation right in there and 90+ mostly 3rd tier and maybe lower second tier as to order of importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I think "not real close" is an incorrect assessment in the overall. 10.4" is normal for DCA, 10-12 call is an "around average to above average call" and it's going to end up above average to well above average with DCA coming in a bit above most everyone els. He certainly recognized it would not be another dry summer. 10-12 call with 15-16 realized is solid, B/B-. I also agree with Mr Z. that the 90+ is an example of icing on the cake and not the cake. Getting the seasonal right is front line, the monthlies the next tier, precipitation right in there and 90+ mostly 3rd tier and maybe lower second tier as to order of importance. You are correct that 10.4 inches of precipitation was the 1981-2010 DCA meteorological summer (JJA) "normal", but as I've discussed before, using a 30-year period for precipitation normals can be misleading. Historically (1871-2012), there have been 12.0 inches of JJA precipitation in DC on average, but August was unusually dry here during 1981-2010. While that could mean a significant long-term change is taking place, I think it's more likely that DCA just happened to get shut out more often than not during 1981-2010 Augusts. Overall, 1981-2010 precipitation at DCA averaged 39.7 inches annually, vs 40.8 inches historically, so not much difference there. So, I can't agree that 10-12 inches of precipitation was a good call for DCA this summer -- it gets the Gentleman's C. Regarding Mr. Allen's prediction of forty-five 90+ degree days, we still have a ways to before rendering a final judgment on that, but it appears that he was looking for a moderately cooler summer than the last three with respect to both maximum and minimum temperatures, whereas what has happened is a sharp dip in maximum temperatures, but only a very slight dip in minimum temperatures. So, I would currently give him a B there, but let's see how many 90+ days we wind up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 26, 2013 Author Share Posted August 26, 2013 disagree on both...1981-2010 norms are the baseline for any seasonal outlook...historic amounts are irrelevant 90 degree days is currently a bad call....we'd have to tack on a lot this week and september to make it a decent one..unless we hit the average of 36-37 it is a poor call...but as I said before, it is a bonus call...it matters but it isn't as important as the other factors.. Agree with you. His ideas are a long way around Robin's barn to try to find lower quality in a forecast that is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 disagree on both...1981-2010 norms are the baseline for any seasonal outlook...historic amounts are irrelevant But according to Tenman's original post, Mr. Allen did not state his precipitation forecast in terms of normals; rather, he predicted 10-12 inches. To me, that's quite a way from almost 16 (with more possibly on the way this week). I'm not trying to be argumentative, and I agree that his overall summer temperature forecast was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 Monthlies - B/B+ Overall- A Bonus- C+ but doesn't matter much Overall grade- A- maybe B+ but I'd lean toward A- Stellar outlook On the monthlies I would go A,A,C-/D+ and the overall call of +0.5 to +1.0 with a +.57 realized is absolutely stellar, A+. The rainfall call of 10-12" with 15.74 realized not as impressive but would give it a C. 90's are still tallying. Overall it was a very good and possibly excellent seasonal outlook. Should have the winter outlook later Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 45 90°+ days was a reasonable guess for a +0.5 to +1.0 summer. It falls near the trendline of 90s vs average temp. Just back in 2007, we had a similar overall summer departure with 44 days. However, as it goes now (31, I believe?) this summer will be on the very low end of the number of 90° days. For a summer average temp of >78°, the lowest annual number of 90° days was 33, in 1981. It further shows how the early wetness and humidity altered this summer season. One other stat stood out, in 1949, we had an above average summer by the 81-10 norms, and there were only 26 90° days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 17, 2013 Author Share Posted September 17, 2013 If it's 33 now then would raise his call of 45 to a C which is up from the C-/D+ that was warranted when the tally was 26/27/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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