WEATHER53 Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Passed on to me by a friend. Summer:+0.5 to +1.0 Rainfall:10-12" #90+:45 #100+:1 All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0 Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3 Analog years:1932,34,60 Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Passed on to me by a friend. Summer:+0.5 to +1.0 Rainfall:10-12" #90+:45 #100+:1 All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0 Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3 Analog years:1932,34,60 Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April. Could be wrong, but I believe 45 days of 90+ would be more than BWI had last summer. That would be horrid. Also can't believe we'd have that many 90+ days and only one day of 100 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Could be wrong, but I believe 45 days of 90+ would be more than BWI had last summer. That would be horrid. Also can't believe we'd have that many 90+ days and only one day of 100 or more. We seem to hit 90 fairly easily now. But there's a big difference between, say, 91F and 97F, especially with the lows that accompany that kind of heat. We had an incredible amount of 95+ heat last year - that's what made it so tough to handle. Hitting 100 isn't so easy, especially if you're not in a pattern that has the ability to produce a lot of upper-90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Could be wrong, but I believe 45 days of 90+ would be more than BWI had last summer. That would be horrid. Also can't believe we'd have that many 90+ days and only one day of 100 or more. he's talking DCA I believe, which we know can hit 90 easily on a spring or fall day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 he's talking DCA I believe, which we know can hit 90 easily on a spring or fall day I think you're right, but it would still be a little odd to have 45 90+ days and only be 0.5-1+ for the summer. Possible, but seems hard to do. Would need lots of those days to be 90-91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I think +0.5-1F will seem downright cool by comparison to the last 3 years. Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Passed on to me by a friend. Summer:+0.5 to +1.0 Rainfall:10-12" #90+:45 #100+:1 All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0 Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3 Analog years:1932,34,60 Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April. This had better be for DCA and not BWI, because the two bolded above do not compute... unless you are expecting some extremely wild swings in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Seems like the only way to get aob in summer is to have anomalous clouds and precip. Radiational cooling in the summer seems to be a thing of the past anywhere near pop centers. If we're getting 45 90+, there is now way we end up only .5-1+. My memeory may be foggy but when we have lots of highs in the 90's we also have lotsa lows in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 27, 2013 Author Share Posted March 27, 2013 We seem to hit 90 fairly easily now. But there's a big difference between, say, 91F and 97F, especially with the lows that accompany that kind of heat. We had an incredible amount of 95+ heat last year - that's what made it so tough to handle. Hitting 100 isn't so easy, especially if you're not in a pattern that has the ability to produce a lot of upper-90s. I agree. There is quite a difference around DC between 92/93 and 98/99, far more in my opinion that the 7 degree difference would indicate. He believes the considerable majority of our 90's will be in 90-94 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 he's talking DCA I believe, which we know can hit 90 easily on a spring or fall day Or a winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I think it matters if it is just JJA or for entire year Good point, but how many 90+ days do we normally get outside JJA? 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 June 2012 finished +1.1 and had 11 days of 90+ highs (6 of which were 96+), so as long as you have more variable conditions instead of persistent warmth, 45 days of 90+ and an average of around +1 isn't the hardest thing to do, especially if most of your 90s are on the low side. Having said that, If I was going to put down 45 days of 90+ I'd probably go for at least a +1 to +2 summer just from a statistical standpoint. This reminds me that I should probably get my summer forecast onto maps... I have the numbers but have been too lazy to get the maps drawn. My DCA anomalies are +2-3 June and July with a +1-2 August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Haven't run 90+ days agains temp avgs. Probably worth doing. Given we avg 36 for the warm season 45 might be doable without a huge departure. Tho considering we never have cool overnight lows anymore it could be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 I agree. There is quite a difference around DC between 92/93 and 98/99, far more in my opinion that the 7 degree difference would indicate. He believes the considerable majority of our 90's will be in 90-94 range. That's what I figured when I saw the forecast. Still...I do agree with the others who have questioned the call of +0.5 to +1 overall considering so many 90+ days. To me, that would suggest one of two things: 1) Those 90+ days would be somewhat drier and allow temps to cool a little more at night, or 2) he expects relatively cool conditions during a decent chunk of JJA. Basically, temps would be pretty variable across all three months. Either way, +1 would feel pretty nice considering the last three summers. And normal rainfall would be pretty nice, too, as long as it doesn't happen all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Despite the heat last summer my lawn was green from post to post due to the frequent well timed thunderstorms that rolled through. I would be happy with a repeat this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Since 2005 summers have been over 1 degree above the 1981-2010 norms. I believe DCA'a average for July is close to 90 and that month seems to be have the most positive readings in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Despite the heat last summer my lawn was green from post to post due to the frequent well timed thunderstorms that rolled through. I would be happy with a repeat this summer. MBY missed out on quite a few of those popup storms we had last year, so my lawn suffered quite a bit in the middle of the summer. I'd like not to have to worry about watering my lawn too much, but I realize that's pretty unrealistic if i want to keep it looking nice. I was able to keep on top of the garnden, though - that turned out great. I don't mind watering my garden, but the lawn? PITA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 90-94 at DCA means mid-upper 80's here which is about the most I can hope for from summer. This reminds me that I should probably get my summer forecast onto maps... I have the numbers but have been too lazy to get the maps drawn. My DCA anomalies are +2-3 June and July with a +1-2 August. Yikes ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Yikes ! -PDO/+AMO combo wins again (probably). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 -PDO/+AMO combo wins again (probably). please understand no ill harm meant when I say I hope you bust badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Looks like his cold to mid April is a bust. Starting next weekend looks to to toasty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Passed on to me by a friend. Summer:+0.5 to +1.0 Rainfall:10-12" #90+:45 #100+:1 All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0 Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3 Analog years:1932,34,60 Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April. Looks like June is coming in at about +1.2/+1.3. I would grade a +0.5 to +1 call as an A- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Passed on to me by a friend. Summer:+0.5 to +1.0 Rainfall:10-12" #90+:45 #100+:1 All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0 Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3 Analog years:1932,34,60 Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April. The slow drop in monthly average will bring this into line of being a decent call for July, not great, probably a B/B-. Missing on the rainfall although DCA has been the abberant surplus location this summer and 90+ call rounding into form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 this will be a bad call unless August is scorching...We will only have 17 through July It's for the year so still decent chance to go 30+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I always thought it was for JJA...yes...we have a shot at putting up some numbers in August and September...I think we are at 21 so far...average is 37....45 is pretty ambitious unless we really have a hot August/Sep I'd suspect it was only for JJA. Why would you include all 90+ days for the year in a summer call? Even if not, it would still have to be blazing to get another 24 days of 90+ this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I'd suspect it was only for JJA. Why would you include all 90+ days for the year in a summer call? Even if not, it would still have to be blazing to get another 24 days of 90+ this year. Yeah, and the long range doesn't show any heat. Looking right now like August is going to be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yeah, and the long range doesn't show any heat. Looking right now like August is going to be below normal. I'm absolutely 100% OK with that idea. I simply can't see any way we'd get more than 20 days of 90+ right now. I wouldn't scoff if someone suggested 9-12 days though. Even then, I'm thinking most of those would be 90, 91, 92 type heat - nothing truly unberable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 I'm absolutely 100% OK with that idea. I simply can't see any way we'd get more than 20 days of 90+ right now. I wouldn't scoff if someone suggested 9-12 days though. Even then, I'm thinking most of those would be 90, 91, 92 type heat - nothing truly unberable. It's possible that we have seen our last 90+ degree day of the season (though I still think we sneak two or three 90 or 91 degree days). With the exception of the week of heat in mid-July, high temperatures most of the summer have been running below average. Right now, I think August continues that trend of high temperatures generally running below to near average. It's crazy to say, but it has been a fairly cool summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 It's possible that we have seen our last 90+ degree day of the season (though I still think we sneak two or three 90 or 91 degree days). With the exception of the week of heat in mid-July, high temperatures most of the summer have been running below average. Right now, I think August continues that trend of high temperatures generally running below to near average. It's crazy to say, but it has been a fairly cool summer. This summer has actually seen above normal temperatures in DC so far, but the maximums haven't been that bad. However, every August in DC history (dating back to 1872) has seen at least one 90+ day. The closest DC came to escaping without such a day was in 1889, when there were only seven 90+ readings through July 14th and then only one more that year -- an even 90 on August 31st. Oddly, the hottest day of 1889 was May 9th, with a high temperature of 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 It's crazy to say, but it has been a fairly cool summer. Except it hasn't been thanks to min temps. Even high temps have only been around (the new 81-10, warmer than previous) averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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