2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Dsnowx53]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/

Scroll down to 30-day global time-longitude plots.

Thanks!

And it's looking more and more like those 850mb easterlies were just the ones that typically form after the passage of a Kelvin Wave and won't have any long term implications.

Not surprising considering the surface currents are definitely westerly regardless of the zonal wind fields occasionally being easterly. This should favor more WWBs down the road, and favor the development of the one that is currently near the Dateline.

Though part of me wonders if the occasional 850mb zonal easterlies may act to prevent the newest WWB or any ones after from attaining the same strength as the one in May, 1997, despite the westerly surface currents.

As I've said before, I think the ball is rolling enough to easily pass 2009, and to perhaps enter a 72-73 type of Niño, but time will tell whether we can truly enter the unique beasts like 82-83 and 97-98. Although I think it's possible we do, I'd like to see another strong WWB within the next few weeks before I go in that direction.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm thinking we attain a moderate/borderline strong niño, closer to 2009-10 or 1994-95, when it's all said and done. There are no WWBs in sight, and the SOI has predominately (albeit weakly) positive over the last 5 weeks. I understand there's a lot more to ENSO than these relatively superficial phenomenon, but I can't find one any big-time Niño (> +1.7K ONI) that shared these characteristics, let alone in a long term -PDO phase.

[bluewave]

Totally agree with your ideas and the other forecasters ideas about the el nino being in the 1.8 to 2.0 range.

 

I am not sure what the final tri-monthly figure is going to look like yet this early. But I was pointing out that the 

models so far seem to agree that this wont be a very strong east based event. I only use 09-10 for progression

purposes where we saw the strongest 1+2 warming over the summer then the El Nino 3.4 peaked later on.

The models are hinting that the warmest departures over the fall will line up over the central regions andy maybe

a little further west. We first have to see how the next few months verify to know what the fall and winter will

look like. We should have a better idea by June into early July when the skill improves.

 

 

 

 

 

[uncle W]

the strongest el nino on the MEI scale was 1982-83 which peaked in the Feb/Mar 1983 period...1997-98 was a smidge weaker and peaked in the Aug/Sept 1997 period...I listed the years that peaked over 1.000...2014 is a little behind 1997 at the M/A period and that year really got going and peaked in the late summer...

year.....Mar/Apr mei.....peak mei.....

1957-58...+0.351.....+1.474 DJ

1965-66...+0.102.....+1.483 JA

1972-73....-0.205.....+1.911 JJ

1976-77....-1.191.....+1.026 AS

1977-78...+0.531.....+1.007 SO

1979-80...+0.289.....+1.015 ND

1982-83....-0.038.....+3.038 FM 83

1986-87....-0.166.....+2.122 MA 87

1991-92...+0.445.....+2.271 MA 92

1992-93...+2.271.....+1.987 AM 93

1994-95...+0.426.....+1.434 SO

1997-98...+0.497.....+2.999 AS

2002-03...+0.342.....+1.180 DJ

2004-05...+0.221.....+1.018 FM 05

2006-07....-0.686.....+1.290 ON

2009-10....-0.157.....+1.517 JF 10

2012-13...+0.061.....+1.111 JJ (very short period)

2014-15...+0.152.....???

 

strongest...

1982-83...+3.038

1997-98...+2.999

1991-92...+2.271

1986-87...+2.122

1992-93...+1.987

1972-73...+1.911

2009-10...+1.517

1965-66...+1.483

1957-58...+1.474

1994-95...+1.434

2006-07...+1.290

2002-03...+1.180

2012-13...+1.111

1976-77...+1.026

2004-05...+1.018

1979-80...+1.015

1977-78...+1.007

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I had a list of ENSO tracing back to 1900. It may be very useful for a >1.7+ ONI with a -PDO. I'll find it.

[Dsnowx53]

I wrote an updated article on the progression of the El Nino.

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/05/12/el-nino-update-matter-strong/

 

I essentially went with a 72-73 type of Nino, but I still think the chances are there for an even more super El Nino -- just didn't want to go there confidently at this time with the SOI spiking back to positive, and the negative decadal PDO phase. 1972-1973 was the strongest Nino we've had in a -PDO decadal phase, IIRC. We need a late May, 1997 WWB in order to keep up with that timeline, and while that may be possible, I can't expect that just yet due to the above two caveats. We'll have a much better idea in a few weeks or so.

 

I just can't ignore how impressive this is, in combination with a classically flattening thermocline and significant subsurface warmth, which is why I'm still going warmer than most of the models. 

 

 

 

[SN_Lover]

I think this will maybe be a weak to moderate El Nino. Don't think a strong El Nino will form. Westward Wind Bursts seem to getting weaker. Easterlies continue to weaken.

[andyhb]

I think this will maybe be a weak to moderate El Nino. Don't think a strong El Nino will form. Westward Wind Bursts seem to getting weaker. Easterlies continue to weaken.

 

?

 

Might want to read more of the discussion then.

[Dsnowx53]

I think this will maybe be a weak to moderate El Nino. Don't think a strong El Nino will form. Westward Wind Bursts seem to getting weaker. Easterlies continue to weaken.

 

 

Even 1997 had a break in the westerly wind bursts in late April through at least Mid May before the big one got going in late May through June. The atmosphere is not just going to spit out westerly wind bursts every second. The point that Phil, myself, and others have been making is that the atmosphere has become conducive for more westerly wind bursts to occur down the road. The feedback process towards a strong El Nino has really gotten going with the flattening thermocline, strong subsurface warmth upwelling to the surface, and the easterly trade winds shifting to westerlies throughout pretty much the entire basin, even after the passage of a Kelvin Wave. 

 

[andyhb]

I'm actually rather interested to see the implications of this upcoming Nino with next year's severe season. 2/3 of the previous Nino events that went into the +2.0 or higher level had very active severe seasons following (1973 and 1998), while the other (1983) was a bit quieter.

[Dsnowx53]

Looks like the anomalous warm pool is "backbuilding" in the Central Pacific subsurface, as +4C anomalies have reappeared in that area, despite the passage of the first Kelvin Wave. Perhaps this is the result of the new one that could be forming along 180 - 170W.

 

 

[SN_Lover]

Even 1997 had a break in the westerly wind bursts in late April through at least Mid May before the big one got going in late May through June. The atmosphere is not just going to spit out westerly wind bursts every second. The point that Phil, myself, and others have been making is that the atmosphere has become conducive for more westerly wind bursts to occur down the road. The feedback process towards a strong El Nino has really gotten going with the flattening thermocline, strong subsurface warmth upwelling to the surface, and the easterly trade winds shifting to westerlies throughout pretty much the entire basin, even after the passage of a Kelvin Wave. 

 

29.gif

If you look at 1997, the second WWB was stronger than the first. In this case, the WWB before this current one was stronger. 

 

1997 El Nino

 

Current 

[Dsnowx53]

1997's WWB in April was also weaker than the WWB in late February and early March, though, so that's no different from how this year has progressed. The big test will be whether we can get another really strong WWB over the next few weeks, like 1997 had in late May through a lot of June. I'm not sure we'll get a WWB of that magnitude, but I do think the pattern is favorable for another strong one within the next few weeks -- enough for a pretty strong El Nino.

 

[SN_Lover]

1997's WWB in April was also weaker than the WWB in late February and early March, though, so that's no different from how this year has progressed. The big test will be whether we can get another really strong WWB over the next few weeks, like 1997 had in late May through a lot of June. I'm not sure we'll get a WWB of that magnitude, but I do think the pattern is favorable for another strong one within the next few weeks -- enough for a pretty strong El Nino.

 

32.gif

Agree with the bold. Anythings possible. WWB's have been weaker but easterlies are still weakening. 1997 saw a MEI of +3C. Model averages currently show a value of +~1C, which is the minimal classification of a El Nino.  

[Yellow Evan]

I think this will maybe be a weak to moderate El Nino. Don't think a strong El Nino will form. Westward Wind Bursts seem to getting weaker. Easterlies continue to weaken.

 

It's still early but conditions overall favor a strong El Nino (large subsurface warm pool, +PDO).  WWB isn't much of a concern as it still is early.

[SN_Lover]

It's still early but conditions overall favor a strong El Nino (large subsurface warm pool, +PDO). WWB isn't much of a concern as it still is early.

I dont see anything right now for a strong el nino. too hypothetical. CPC gives a 65% chance of a El Nino forming.

[Yellow Evan]

I dont see anything right now for a strong el nino. too hypothetical. CPC gives a 65% chance of a El Nino forming.

 

The sub surface anomalies, and the strong PDO and EPSI. Granted, the SOI has been fickle. I'm not saying it will for 100% sure happen, but I think there is a real shot at it happening.

 

CPC is always going be conservative with stuff like this.

[Ground Scouring]

I'm actually rather interested to see the implications of this upcoming Nino with next year's severe season. 2/3 of the previous Nino events that went into the +2.0 or higher level had very active severe seasons following (1973 and 1998), while the other (1983) was a bit quieter.

Those years were very active in FL. 1983 and 1998 were among the most active ever in that state (February-March). I would love an active severe season in the dry season down here. Of course FL is no chaser's dream given low LCLs.

[andyhb]

I dont see anything right now for a strong el nino. too hypothetical. CPC gives a 65% chance of a El Nino forming.

 

Are you not reading any of the discussion that people like Phil and Dsnow are offering here?

[Isotherm]

Are you not reading any of the discussion that people like Phil and Dsnow are offering here?

 

 

While I disagree with him that we're only looking at a weak to moderate El Nino, he's correct in terms of current model guidance. The average of all statistical and dynamical guidance as of the April outlook is a region 3.4 peak anomaly of around +0.9/+1.0c, or borderline moderate El Nino. I personally believe the mid May update will increase that average, and the mid June update will probably increase it even further. We're experiencing a break in the negative SOI and strong WWBs right now, but we had a burst in Feb/March that was quite comparable with most of the strong El Nino events.

[andyhb]

Those years were very active in FL. 1983 and 1998 were among the most active ever in that state (February-March). I would love an active severe season in the dry season down here. Of course FL is no chaser's dream given low LCLs.

 

Unsurprising since El Nino favours a stronger STJ, 2007 also had a deadly event in the state and that was coming off a weaker Nino. 1966 featured the long track Tampa tornado event and was coming off a strong Nino.

[andyhb]

While I disagree with him that we're only looking at a weak to moderate El Nino, he's correct in terms of current model guidance. The average of all statistical and dynamical guidance as of the April outlook is a region 3.4 peak anomaly of around +0.9/+1.0c, or borderline moderate El Nino. I personally believe the mid May update will increase that average, and the mid June update will probably increase it even further. We're experiencing a break in the negative SOI and strong WWBs right now, but we had a burst in Feb/March that was quite comparable with most of the strong El Nino events.

 

I read that more as a one-liner post without much of a base, but I digress.

[uncle W]

this weeks oni was at +0.5...up from +0.4 from last week...

[SN_Lover]

Are you not reading any of the discussion that people like Phil and Dsnow are offering here?

I am. I just dont see anything showing a strong El Nino. 

[Harry]

I'm actually rather interested to see the implications of this upcoming Nino with next year's severe season. 2/3 of the previous Nino events that went into the +2.0 or higher level had very active severe seasons following (1973 and 1998), while the other (1983) was a bit quieter.

 

 

I suspect the difference between 73/98 vs 83 may have been both 73/98 switched to a mod/strong nina vs weak in 83 if i recall correctly? In the case of 73 it switched very fast and early ( early Spring ) as well.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I found the list of ENSO years from 1900:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html

 

Bookmark it.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I read that more as a one-liner post without much of a base, but I digress.

We're going to need more WWB activity to attain a strong Niño. As of right now there are no WWBs in sight. That could easily change, though.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/

[The_Global_Warmer]

The EPAC shows big warming taking place along the SA West coast.

 

This is definitely EPAC based as of now.

 

 

 

 

 

[Yellow Evan]

Here's why we'll get strong El Nino: High EPSI and PDO and large subsurface anomalies. Models don't have a lot f skill at predicting ENSO. We haven't had a strong El Nino since 1997, so we're overdue for one IMO (unless you count 2009).

 

It'll probably peak anywhere from 1C to 2.3C. 

[roardog]

Here's why we'll get strong El Nino: High EPSI and PDO and large subsurface anomalies. Models don't have a lot f skill at predicting ENSO. We haven't had a strong El Nino since 1997, so we're overdue for one IMO (unless you count 2009).

 

It'll probably peak anywhere from 1C to 2.3C. 

1C isn't a strong El Nino. Why wouldn't we count 2009 as a strong one?