2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[CoastalWx]

That cooler water caused by easterlies is typical after the passage of those waves and as Phil and others posted, another one looks to be in the cards.

[ORH_wxman]

That cooler water caused by easterlies is typical after the passage of those waves and as Phil and others posted, another one looks to be in the cards.

 

 

This is why an El Nino is likely even if we don't get more strong WWBs.

 

 

But in order to get a very potent Nino, we'll need stronger WWBs down the road. It looks like there is a weak to moderate one trying to get to about 120W by later next week...but easterlies are forecasted to pick up near and just west of the dateline in that period too...so that might prevent big warming down the road a little further.

 

But these forecasts are notoriously error-prone too...esp this time of year.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I found this very useful for researching cool and warm summers for Central Park: 

 

http://www.climatestations.com/new-york-city-2/

 

Also, here's the list of ONI:

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

I'm trying to see which El Nino phase is more likely and determining what type of summer Central Park will have, due to the upcoming El Nino. 

[bluewave]

You can see how the positive April SOI pattern was one factor working against the WWB becoming

as strong as 1997. The SOI did become slightly negative over the last week. The post 97-98 -PDO

era has seen the strongest trade winds out near the dateline along record high SOI values. It's

impressive that these values have been even stronger than the last -PDO era from the 40's into 

the 70's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Tao showing warming over the 180-160W region.

 

 

 

[Jonger]

 

Looks like el nino is running out of gas.

[phil882]

 

 

Looks like el nino is running out of gas.

 

Did you even bother to read above? Another oceanic kelvin wave is in the process of moving across the Pacific which will likely act to push additional warm water from the Central Pacific further west. El Nino is nowhere close to running out of gas, this is just a brief westerly wind burst respite before things pick back up again. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

The new KW doesn't look nearly as impressive to me as the first one did. It was a monster.

The warm-pool in the west-pacific has also kind of collapsed, as it usually does during El Niño. I'm not sure if the slightly cooler source will affect things?

[andyhb]

The new KW doesn't look nearly as impressive to me as the first one did. It was a monster.

 

Well that's kind of a given, that first one was record breaking.

[phil882]

The new KW doesn't look nearly as impressive to me as the first one did. It was a monster.

The warm-pool in the west-pacific has also kind of collapsed, as it usually does during El Niño. I'm not sure if the slightly cooler source will affect things?

 

 

Not true... just because the warm pool is not as deep as it normally is in the WPAC, its still quite a bit deeper in the WPAC in comparison to the EPAC. Thus additional westerly current oceanic kelvin wave episodes should still be quite effective at migrating warmer sub SSTs further east into the EPAC where the thermocline is traditionally very shallow. This is only the beginning, and the fact that SSTs are already warmer than normal across the EPAC is likely only a harbinger of what is to come. 

 

 

Below is an animation of surface ocean currents since January. There has been a monumental shift in the mean ocean currents from strong easterlies to strong westerlies. You can see the first record setting kelvin wave migrate eastward than dissipate near 100W by the end of the period. Still though, note that the ocean currents have NOT shifted back easterly (which would be favored by climatology). In a traditional non-ENSO pattern this is what would have happened. However, the first Kelvin Wave has completely modified the base state of the Pacific, where westerly ocean currents are now the resting state (in absence of a significant Kelvin Wave). You can already start to see the signs of a new Kelvin Wave at the end of the loop developing along 180-170W. This should should help push the 20 degree isotherm further east the next few weeks and resume the warming that had taken place in February and March. 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Thanks for the great info, very much appreciated. I was looking at a global subsurface temperature anomaly map, which seemed to suggest the warmest anomalies at depth have migrated east with the first KW.

[phil882]

Thanks for the great info, very much appreciated. I was looking at a global subsurface temperature anomaly map, which seemed to suggest the warmest anomalies at depth have migrated east with the first KW.

 

Well you can see in the 20 degree isotherm hovmoller above, they have migrated east, but the majority of the deep warm water still resides in the WPAC. If we see a similar evolution to the record breaking 1997-1998 event, the thermocline depth will essentially reverse sides, where the deepest thermocline will reside in the EPAC rather than the WPAC. 

 

So how does this compare to 1997 in May? Take a look...

 

 

Look at all those 100-200 m depth negative anomalies over the WPAC warm pool (140-160E). This is not because the warm water doesn't exist, but its already started to migrate to the east towards the EPAC (as a result of the oceanic kelvin wave shifting the ocean currents westerly, shifting the warm water along with it). Lets compare that to 2014, which looks remarkably similar. 

 

 

If anything, 2014 is still on pace if not ahead (look at the 28 degree isotherm) of 1997's progression. While looking at the progression of anomalies is nice, its very sensitive to the gradient of the temperatures as you decrease with depth.

 

Also note that are two key buoys (x's mark where observations are taken) is currently broken at 120W and 140W and are not reporting temperature information. This is due to the government not providing enough funding for the buoy array that is organized along the Pacific (TAO Array) in order to observe this very phenomenon (ENSO). Its rather sad that we we actually better in-situ observational data in 1997 than we currently have to observe this phenomenon. Thus the apparent gap between the two warm anomalies around 130W is likely due to this missing data (why there isn't a smooth axis of warm anomalies like the 1997 images above).

 

Basic idea though is that we are still in the beginning stages of a potential Strong El Nino and there are absolutely no indications that this is stopping like some earlier posts have suggested. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Thanks, definitely not doubting El Nino. If I recall correctly, wasn't there a major WWB in May of 1997? I was under the impression that event was what really got the 1997-98 event going.

[phil882]

Thanks, definitely not doubting El Nino. If I recall correctly, wasn't there a major WWB in May of 1997? I was under the impression that event was what really got the 1997-98 event going.

 

Correct... and we will need another similarly intense WWB (surface signature of the oceanic kelvin wave) to get the warm pool (still located around 160E) to move west. The pieces are there (eg. base state has already ocean currents westerly), so the next few oceanic kelvin waves will be further amplified with the anomalous base state. Its not a quick process, and it won't be obvious how things are really moving until we get into June. We just need to watch the warm pool (place with deepest warm water) and see how this shifts over the next month. We need steady progression east with time to maintain the same timeline as 1997. 

[ORH_wxman]

I'm surprised there aren't more strong Nino plumes on here....usually you tend to see some of the dynamical models go gung ho on the strength:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still think they are under-estimating the intertia of this El Nino...so I would still predict something in the 1.5-1.8C trimonthly peak, but this also suggest that extreme caution should be taken for predicting a very strong Nino or "Super Nino". Still, the "spring barrier" is something that could pose a problem for the models and we'll have to see how the May update looks in a few weeks.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm surprised there aren't more strong Nino plumes on here....usually you tend to see some of the dynamical models go gung ho on the strength:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still think they are under-estimating the intertia of this El Nino...so I would still predict something in the 1.5-1.8C trimonthly peak, but this also suggest that extreme caution should be taken for predicting a very strong Nino or "Super Nino". Still, the "spring barrier" is something that could pose a problem for the models and we'll have to see how the May update looks in a few weeks.

 

 

 

Have they 'hindcasted' these models with the 1997 warm ENSO to see which ones predicted that the best.  I do remember that Dr. Gray's April forecast was wildy off because he apparently did not see the mega-warmth coming.

[The_Global_Warmer]

[ORH_wxman]

Have they 'hindcasted' these models with the 1997 warm ENSO to see which ones predicted that the best.  I do remember that Dr. Gray's April forecast was wildy off because he apparently did not see the mega-warmth coming.

 

 

None of the models perform well during spring...and the human forecasters don't perform well either.

 

 

In the past 3 El Ninos, the models have under-forecast the strength of them at this time range. The last one in 2009, they were barely forecasting a weak El Nino. However, usually one or two dynamical models were at least somewhat close to the final strength. This suggests that something over a trimonthly peak of +2.0C would be hard to attain.

[Dsnowx53]

Well you can see in the 20 degree isotherm hovmoller above, they have migrated east, but the majority of the deep warm water still resides in the WPAC. If we see a similar evolution to the record breaking 1997-1998 event, the thermocline depth will essentially reverse sides, where the deepest thermocline will reside in the EPAC rather than the WPAC. 

 

So how does this compare to 1997 in May? Take a look...

 

 

Look at all those 100-200 m depth negative anomalies over the WPAC warm pool (140-160E). This is not because the warm water doesn't exist, but its already started to migrate to the east towards the EPAC (as a result of the oceanic kelvin wave shifting the ocean currents westerly, shifting the warm water along with it). Lets compare that to 2014, which looks remarkably similar. 

 

 

If anything, 2014 is still on pace if not ahead (look at the 28 degree isotherm) of 1997's progression. While looking at the progression of anomalies is nice, its very sensitive to the gradient of the temperatures as you decrease with depth.

 

Also note that are two key buoys (x's mark where observations are taken) is currently broken at 120W and 140W and are not reporting temperature information. This is due to the government not providing enough funding for the buoy array that is organized along the Pacific (TAO Array) in order to observe this very phenomenon (ENSO). Its rather sad that we we actually better in-situ observational data in 1997 than we currently have to observe this phenomenon. Thus the apparent gap between the two warm anomalies around 130W is likely due to this missing data (why there isn't a smooth axis of warm anomalies like the 1997 images above).

 

Basic idea though is that we are still in the beginning stages of a potential Strong El Nino and there are absolutely no indications that this is stopping like some earlier posts have suggested. 

 

 

Great post, Phil.

 

Quick question: where do you find the TAO data that goes back to 1997 (the first two images you posted)? I want to run comparisons to other months of that year/time periods as well. 

[phil882]

Great post, Phil.

 

Quick question: where do you find the TAO data that goes back to 1997 (the first two images you posted)? I want to run comparisons to other months of that year/time periods as well. 

 

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

 

Go to Section Plots > Click on Depth and Monthly (orange buttons) and pick the month and year (available since 1991)

[Dsnowx53]

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

 

Go to Section Plots > Click on Depth and Monthly (orange buttons) and pick the month and year (available since 1991)

 

 

Thanks!

 

Anyway, I think we all need to stop making any comparisons to the 2012 bust. May, 2012 wasn't anywhere near as ripe for an El Nino as we are right now. They're not even in the same planet. 

 

 

 

 

 

No other year besides 1997 had both the combination of significantly reversed wind currents AND an already changing thermocline and such warm anomalies of water...having the combination is crucial to the El Nino since it's all a feedback process. 

 

Of course, we don't have this kind of detailed buoy data going back through the 1980s and earlier, which somewhat limits our sample-size. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Looks like some easterlies are now situated over the far west Pacific, near or just west the new Kelvin wave

[andyhb]

JMA has gone off its early weakening idea and is more in line with the rest of Nino guidance now, showing a moderate/borderline strong Nino developing.

[bluewave]

The latest CFS is going for a moderate to strong event along the lines of 2009-2010

where 1+2 peaks in June and the EL Nino becomes more central to west based

in December. But we may still have to deal with the spring forecast barrier so

we'll see what things look like in June or July.

 

After a 10 day drop, the SOI has gone positive again with stronger trades again out near

the dateline.

 

 

 

 

[easternsnowman]

The latest CFS is going for a moderate to strong event along the lines of 2009-2010

where 1+2 peaks in June and the EL Nino becomes more central to west based

in December. But we may still have to deal with the spring forecast barrier so

we'll see what things look like in June or July.

 

After a 10 day drop, the SOI has gone positive again with stronger trades again out near

the dateline.

 

J.gif

 

J9.png

 

D.gif

 

D9.png

Totally agree with your ideas and the other forecasters ideas about the el nino being in the 1.8 to 2.0 range.

[Isotherm]

I believe something slightly stronger than 09-10, along the lines of a 57-58 and 65-66 peak is reasonable at this juncture. I think a trimonthly maximum of +1.6c to +1.9c in region 3.4 will probably be the top attainable numbers with this event. Unless I see a major ramp-up similar to 97-98 over the next month, I'd say the chances of a super Nino are quickly decreasing. Among other problems, the SOI for spring of 1997 was approximately -16 and -22 for April and May respectively. We've clocked in at +8 or so for April 2014, and so far this month we've been bouncing around neutral. Until we see some persistent, longer lasting, pressure falls with more negative SOI values, I maintain skepticism about the idea of a > +2.0c region 3.4 peak.

 

Another point to remember is the super ninos since 1950 occurred either in the warm decadal phase of the PDO or the latter stages of the cold PDO. After the last cold phase PDO transition in the late 40s/early 50s, the first super nino (+2.0c) did not occur until 1972, nearly 20 years after the transition. Since we recently entered the -PDO cycle (latter 2000s), I have doubts about a power-house Nino this early in the phase.

 

The key is really what happens over the next 30 days. We'll know by early June if a super nino is completely off the table or not.

[Dsnowx53]

I really wish we had more buoy data going back before the 1990s, then we could really get a true Nino comparison. 

 

But even comparing the current state of our event to 2009 shows that we are well ahead of that progression.

 

 

 

The fact that we are well ahead of a Nino event that ended up peaking at +1.6 trimonthly for two consecutive periods definitely bodes well for having a Nino peak >+1.7C, considering the whole process is a feedback, and once it gets started at such a high amplitude, it favors more Kelvin Waves down the road. 

 

But it might be a bit lofty to expect the progression to continue at a 1997 pace. I honestly still think there's a chance of that, but I think 1997 had more favorable trade winds at this juncture. I'm still leaning towards the higher end of guidance with around a +2.0C trimonthly peak, with the outside shot that we can get a super El Nino...but definitely not enough confidence to make a call of that nature yet. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

It would certainly be nice to get TAO/TRITON fixed so we had a more accurate picture of the OHC between 180-160W and then 160W to 110W or so.

 

CPC shows a much more congealed area of warm subsurface versus TAO showing a split region which would be due to the malfunctioning buoys.

 

 

 

 

[Dsnowx53]

Current weak WWB trying to cross the dateline, but it looks like it is forecasted to fall apart. There's a newer burst of easterlies that try and approach the dateline from the west later in the period...that would set back the Nino a bit...but we'll see if that verifies.

 

 

 

Just a quick question for future reference: where can this image be found? 

[phil882]

Just a quick question for future reference: where can this image be found? 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/

 

Scroll down to 30-day global time-longitude plots.