icebreaker5221 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't think you get a supr El Niño during cold-phase PDO cycle. At most you get a repeat of 2009-10 or 1972-3; short duration but fairly strong Niño, with suer-fast plunges into Niña territory. Both 1972-3 and 2009-10 ended that way. Interestingly, the PDO has very much trended positive over the last 3 months. We're unarguably in a -PDO long-term mode if one looks at 10 or 30 year moving averages, but even -PDOs have positive "blips". I'd agree that it's too early to call for a super El Nino given the fact that none of the warming has yet to reach the surface and the deep water analyses can occasionally be unreliable (and just based upon rarity of a super Nino alone), but I wouldn't rule out the possibility either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisf97212 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Interestingly, the PDO has very much trended positive over the last 3 months. We're unarguably in a -PDO long-term mode if one looks at 10 or 30 year moving averages, but even -PDOs have positive "blips". I'd agree that it's too early to call for a super El Nino given the fact that none of the warming has yet to reach the surface and the deep water analyses can occasionally be unreliable (and just based upon rarity of a super Nino alone), but I wouldn't rule out the possibility either. compday.9r1y4WhrJy.gif The positive PDO numbers correlate with the anamolous ridge over that area much of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Both the CPC charts and Tao/triton continue to show the warmth expand Eastward and in strengh. Way to soon to expect a Strong NINO. But a nino event is looking very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Hi all, My intentions were not to express that we are going into a super El Nino- They were to state that the potential is there to go into one. We still need to see the atmosphere behave appropriately this upcoming spring. In order to get the eastward push of the warm pool across the Basin, we are going to need to some strong atmospheric forcing, likely through strong tropical cyclones close to the equator to achieve the "Super El Nino" state. The current Oceanic Kelvin wave is just as strong, if not stronger now, than the one that preceded the 1997 Nino. Further, we do see an atmosphere that appears to be trending to the El Nino. A second, more impressive westerly wind burst is currently underway. Note that each WWB is occurring a bit further east with time, indicating of a slow eastward adjustment to Nino. Dr. Roundy has commented on this second WWB on the Tropical Storms National emailing list, alluded to it being stronger than any WWB that was observed in 1997. Further, we are seeing more frequent "Pineapple Expresses", and the medium-to-subseasonal forecast calls for wet conditions across much of the Pacific Northwest Basin. Right now, I believe the most likely outcome is some sort of Modiki, but if we get a strong central-western Pacific typhoon near the equator, I would favor a complete reconstruction of the thermocline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 the winter turned out to be a neutral negative but a strong one if there is such a thing...Oni for DJF was -0.7 which is in weak la nina territory...there hasn't been an el nino since 2009-10...odds favor an el nino or neutral plus coming up but that remeins to be seen... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The CPC has just issued an El Nino watch: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Interesting how California is going through one of its worst droughts ever and there's a possibility of a strong El Nino on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Interesting how California is going through one of its worst droughts ever and there's a possibility of a strong El Nino on the way. If it is still going next Winter. It should be if it doesn't come on until Summer. Although I've seen two very different thing about warm ENSO and California. Usually good for wet Texas Winters anyway, and even the ice storms have been pathetically dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So, of course the question becomes, possible analogs? That may sound like a weenie question but it's not. The main concern is in terms of drought relief. It's early and every one is different, but '57 would have to be thrown in the hat because it is one that occurred after a long string of Ninas/Negative Neutrals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So, of course the question becomes, possible analogs? That may sound like a weenie question but it's not. The main concern is in terms of drought relief. It's early and every one is different, but '57 would have to be thrown in the hat because it is one that occurred after a long string of Ninas/Negative Neutrals. 1957 was very active severe weather wise, essentially across the entire country (if we are talking about this year) which was then followed by a strong Nino into 1958. The actual Nino conditions in 3.4 began in the MAM period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It seems virtually impossible this El Nino could be anything more than weak, not one of the ENSO models I last saw showed anything over 1.0C next winter, as far as I know while not perfect the ENSO model predictions tend to not be too bad at a 8-9 month range, I couldn't envision them being off 2 categories on the Nino strength but I guess anything can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 this weeks oni was -0.6 and DJF was -0.7...That's four straight years without and el nino... year....nino start...... 1951.......JJA........ 1957.......MAM..... 1963.......MJJ....... 1965.......AMJ...... 1968.......JAS...... 1972.......AMJ..... 1976.......ASO.... 1977.......ASO.... 1982.......AMJ..... 1986.......JAS..... 1991.......AMJ.... 1994.......ASO... 1997.......AMJ.... 2002.......AMJ.... 2004.......JJA..... 2006.......ASO... 2009.......JJA..... the earliest el nino was 1957 with the first trimonthly being MAM...1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2002 started AMJ...1963, was MJJ...1951, 2004, 2009 were JJA...1968, 1986 were JAS...latest years were 1976 and 1977 coming in at ASO...76 and 77 were weak enso events...the three very strong el nino's 1972, 1982 and 1997 started during the AMJ period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 most of the strongest El Nino's developed in the April/May/June trimonthly period...most of the weaker ones developed in the August/September/October trimonthly period...none of the strong el nino's developed in the ASO period and no weak el nino developed in the AMJ period... year....oni max......nino start...MEI max 1997...2.4....AMJ.....................2.999 1982...2.2....AMJ.....................3.039 1972...2.1....AMJ.....................1.911 1965...1.9....AMJ.....................1.483 1957...1.8....MAM....................1.453 1991...1.6....AMJ.....................2.271 2009...1.6....JJA......................1.517 1963...1.4....MJJ......................0.856 1986...1.3....JAS.....................2.122 2002...1.3....AMJ.....................1.158 1951...1.2....JJA......................0.858 1994...1.2....ASO....................1.434 2006...1.0....ASO....................1.290 1976...0.8....ASO....................1.026 1977...0.8....ASO....................1.007 2004...0.8....JJA......................1.018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Sub-Surface has updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If it is still going next Winter. It should be if it doesn't come on until Summer. Although I've seen two very different thing about warm ENSO and California. Usually good for wet Texas Winters anyway, and even the ice storms have been pathetically dry. The event of last Monday night into Tuesday were anything beyond pathetically dry. I measured .87 inches of ZR and even thunder ZR during the overnight hours of March 3rd-4th and some locations in Western Harris/NW Harris/Waller/Montgomery and Liberty Counties exceeded 1 inch amounts. While the 'official' record at IAH were a bit below the .50 inch mark, the temperature holding steady at 31-32 degrees literally saved our Region from a far worse situation than we experienced and may well have produced an Ice Storm far greater the 1997. Portions of far NW Harris and SW Montgomery Counties had significant issues with downed trees and extended power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Based on conflicting signals is there a chance of more of a Madoki El Nino or more of a traditional one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Based on conflicting signals is there a chance of more of a Madoki El Nino or more of a traditional one I am not a professional meteorologist but I am interested. How is a "Madoki El Niño" different from what has been on this board called a "west-based" El Niño"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I am not a professional meteorologist but I am interested. How is a "Madoki El Niño" different from what has been on this board called a "west-based" El Niño"? Generally a Modoki El Nino (Central Pacific El Nino) is further west than the traditional east-based Nino off the coast of South America. Not sure in terms of context between it and a "west-based" Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Based on conflicting signals is there a chance of more of a Madoki El Nino or more of a traditional one IF we get no more atm forcing, the most likely out come is a modiki. But if we get some strong typhoons to spin up close to the date line over the next two months, I would place bets on a full out el nino. 1997 had a Super Typhoon accelerate the warm pool eastward during April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Generally a Modoki El Nino (Central Pacific El Nino) is further west than the traditional east-based Nino off the coast of South America. Not sure in terms of context between it and a "west-based" Nino. "West-based El Nino" and "Modoki El Nino" are interchangable AFAIK; I've never heard anyone refer to it as the former though. JBG, here's an idea of what each look like. Note in the 1997 graphic, the warmest ocean anomalies are situated southeast of Hawaii, near the East Pacific-Central Pacific border (140W). Meanwhile, note how the warmest ocean anomalies are situated off the coast of South America in the second image. The first is a Modoki El Nino, the second is a traditional El Nino. Traditional El Ninos are much more detrimental to Atlantic hurricane activity, while Modoki El Ninos may actually *enhance* activity (ex. 2004). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 "West-based El Nino" and "Modoki El Nino" are interchangable AFAIK; I've never heard anyone refer to it as the former thoughSome examples here, of the rather common reference to "West-based" El Niños":http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32854-2012-enso-thread/page-4#entry1625984 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33331-track-developing-el-nino/page-2#entry1545139 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4123-january-storm-potentials/page-4#entry207030 Those are three (3) posts referring to that phenomena. It sounds similar to the "Modoki El Nino". . JBG, here's an idea of what each look like. Note in the 1997 graphic, the warmest ocean anomalies are situated southeast of Hawaii, near the East Pacific-Central Pacific border (140W). Meanwhile, note how the warmest ocean anomalies are situated off the coast of South America in the second image. The first is a Modoki El Nino, the second is a traditional El Nino. Traditional El Ninos are much more detrimental to Atlantic hurricane activity, while Modoki El Ninos may actually *enhance* activity (ex. 2004).I have always heard of 1997-8 being referred to as "east-based" or "basin wide." Not sure about 2004-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 What's up with the ENSO 1-2 warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 What's up with the ENSO 1-2 warming? Wonder if it's that down sloping wind event off the mountains of Central America ? I forget the name Of it off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 Wonder if it's that down sloping wind event off the mountains of Central America ? I forget the name Of it off the top of my head. What does that mean for the overall picture? The cold pool has shrunken dramatically. Warm subsurface is reaching the far EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Another WWB -- albeit not as strong as the previous two, but farther east -- is expected to get going in a few days, probably in relation to the counter-clockwise flow around what the GFS is indicating will be Tropical Storm Peipah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is pretty impressive. As far as this Spring/Summer goes, years that featured a flip from a neg-neutral ENSO to a Nino that would go on to max out in excess of +1.5 (which certainly appears to be a possibility given the strength of the warm pool, we are well ahead of 2009 at this point and even have some leads on 1997 especially if we do see more eastward progression) include 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Warm pool is certainly moving east and upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 http://www.climatece...-for-2014-17052 http://havlin.biu.ac.il/PS/Improved%20El%20Nino%20forecasting%20by%20cooperativity%20detection.pdf The new study, by an international group of researchers, takes a starkly different approach to El Niño forecasting compared to conventional techniques. While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific. The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014. “Our approach uses another route,” said study coauthor Armin Bunde, a scientist at the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany, in an email conversation. “We do not consider the water temperature in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean, but the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific.” Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yeah. We are definitely in line for a big shake up globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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