2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/plot_850wnd_tvalue_8pan_novmar.gif

The westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean looks like its related to the strong MJO pulse moving into phase 3 and 4.

Short term you would see a moderation in temperatures over the East for the first week of December.

The unknown quantity in regard to the El Nino is if this will begin a propagation of the westerly wind burst pattern

into the Western Pacific. Last December we saw an MJO 3-4 pulse with stronger IO WWB's. The WWB pattern

propagated into the Western Pacific and started the ball rolling for the El Nino this fall and coming winter.

If we can get a strong WWB pattern into the West Pacific from the winter into early fall, then the chances

for a 2 year El Nino event go up. But it's still too early to guess how long El Nino conditions will or won't

linger until we actually see how things look in 2015.

So we will see the warmer SST anomalies push westward and up welling of cooler SSTs at the Eastern Regions?

[Weathergun]

New ENSO numbers from CPC. 3.0 up to 1.0 and 3.4 up to 0.9  and 1+2 down 0.8:

12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9 19NOV2014     22.6 0.8     26.0 1.0     27.5 0.9     29.5 0.9

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the new JAMSTEC is predicting ~+1.0 for DJF in Nino 3.4. Last month's prediction was near +0.9 and September's map had ~+0.8 fwiw.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Fwiw, the new JAMSTEC is predicting ~+1.0 for DJF in Nino 3.4. Last month's prediction was near +0.9 and September's map had ~+0.8 fwiw.

[tracksdc89]

Hi, I am just a visitor and have been religiously following this thread for months.

 

I am very impressed with the amount of knowledge everyone has.

 

I have been rooting for an El Nino because of the devastatingly cold winter we suffered last year, and more importantly, I fear that the "resilient ridge" out in California is now a permanent fixture on the landscape which has condemned us east of the Rockies to bitterly cold winters from now on, and those in California to a perpetual drought. 

 

An El Nino would help, at least temporarily, with this seemingly unsolvable problem. 

 

However, despite the great and encouraging information that is posted on this thread, everyone on the outside seems to be dismissing any effects of an El Nino, saying that "the atmosphere isn't responding", or "It's a Modoki", or "any effects will be minimal at best".  I have been looking at the pacific temperature anomalies daily, and each day they seem to be getting stronger, but nobody seems to care (outside of this thread).  Every day I do a Google search for El Nino, and read anything that has been published in the past 24 hours.  Everything I read breaks my heart, as it is the equivalent of saying that we are all wasting our time in hoping for the El Nino.

 

What do you say in the face of this mounting dismissal?  Do you believe that there is any truth to what they are saying?  I know you wouldn't be continuing to spend so much time researching this if you thought it were for nothing.  What exactly are your thoughts as to what this El Nino will bring?

 

Thank you!

[Rainman]

tracksdc89, I think the kind of el Nino you're hoping for, the kind which results in the eastern half of the CONUS being flooded with Pacific air for the bulk of winter, is almost completely out of the question.

[Heisy]

Hi, I am just a visitor and have been religiously following this thread for months.

 

I am very impressed with the amount of knowledge everyone has.

 

I have been rooting for an El Nino because of the devastatingly cold winter we suffered last year, and more importantly, I fear that the "resilient ridge" out in California is now a permanent fixture on the landscape which has condemned us east of the Rockies to bitterly cold winters from now on, and those in California to a perpetual drought. 

 

An El Nino would help, at least temporarily, with this seemingly unsolvable problem. 

 

However, despite the great and encouraging information that is posted on this thread, everyone on the outside seems to be dismissing any effects of an El Nino, saying that "the atmosphere isn't responding", or "It's a Modoki", or "any effects will be minimal at best".  I have been looking at the pacific temperature anomalies daily, and each day they seem to be getting stronger, but nobody seems to care (outside of this thread).  Every day I do a Google search for El Nino, and read anything that has been published in the past 24 hours.  Everything I read breaks my heart, as it is the equivalent of saying that we are all wasting our time in hoping for the El Nino.

 

What do you say in the face of this mounting dismissal?  Do you believe that there is any truth to what they are saying?  I know you wouldn't be continuing to spend so much time researching this if you thought it were for nothing.  What exactly are your thoughts as to what this El Nino will bring?

 

Thank you!

 

What the last poster said. You are hoping for a super nino which is not happening this year. A weak el nino would actually help the probability of snow/cold for our area. 

[JBG]

What the last poster said. You are hoping for a super nino which is not happening this year. A weak el nino would actually help the probability of snow/cold for our area. 

Assuming it's Modokai and not basin-wide.

[Weathergun]

Tropical tidbits has 1+2 region below 0.5 now. Warmest anomlies now in 3.0 region:

 

 

[Weathergun]

NOAA numbers today:

 

Nino 1+2  0.4C

Nino 3  0.9C

Nino 3.4 1.0C

Nino 4. 0.9C

[griteater]

Dec 3 MEI update...

 

The updated (October-November) MEI has increased by 0.35 standard deviations to +0.71, recovering about 70% of the losses incurred since July-August. Its current ranking has increased by 5, thus returning to weak El Niño conditions, here defined as the top 20 values since 1950. The long anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in 2014 appears to enter its second round, after a four-month stint from April-May through July-August. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+/-6) in October-November, but requiring a one-month increase by at least 0.05 since September-October yields the following five 'analogue' cases: 1958, '68, '69, '79, and '04.

[GaWx]

ONI update: the SON trimonthly was at +0.5. The weeklies averaged +0.6. So, the gap has continued to close slowly.

[GaWx]

TAO has cooled considerably over the last week. Also, Cowan's graph is down to only ~+0.75. So, I expect a drop Monday.

[dan123]

TAO has cooled considerably over the last week. Also, Cowan's graph is down to only ~+0.75. So, I expect a drop Monday.

Forgive me for asking but what's the TAO?

[GaWx]

Forgive me for asking but what's the TAO?

Buoys as opposed to satellite. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/index.html

 

Weak Nino still looking good for winter most likely. This cooling keeps low end moderate chances fairly low.

[dan123]

Buoys as opposed to satellite. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/index.html

 

Weak Nino still looking good for winter most likely. This cooling keeps low end moderate chances fairly low.

Thanks! Is there another link you can provide me that shows where the warmest anomalies are?

[GaWx]

Thanks! Is there another link you can provide me that shows where the warmest anomalies are?

 

YW. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif&P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh

[dan123]

YW. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif&P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh

Thanks.

 

So would this mean we have a central-based el nino going on currently?

[GaWx]

Thanks.

 

So would this mean we have a central-based el nino going on currently?

 

Based on the TAO map, alone, I'd lean that way.

[skierinvermont]

Based on the numbers above ([email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) isn't this a west based event? To have anomalies nearly as high or as high in region 4 as in regions 3 and 3.4 is pretty unusual in El Ninos. An anomaly of .9C in region 4 is a much larger standardized anomaly than .9C in region 3.

[bluewave]

This looks like the warmest that the WPAC has every been during the beginning of December

in an El Nino event going back to 1950.

 

November WPAC SST's:

 

 

1950 27.805
1951 28.233
1952 28.023
1953 28.030
1954 27.681
1955 27.991
1956 28.098
1957 28.136
1958 28.215
1959 28.159
1960 28.196
1961 27.991
1962 28.036
1963 27.996
1964 27.720
1965 27.921
1966 28.208
1967 27.941
1968 28.268
1969 28.383
1970 28.270
1971 27.886
1972 28.142
1973 28.146
1974 27.896
1975 27.646
1976 28.274
1977 28.158
1978 28.206
1979 28.392
1980 28.334
1981 28.527
1982 28.178
1983 28.312
1984 28.329
1985 28.552
1986 28.476
1987 28.830
1988 28.172
1989 28.415
1990 28.636
1991 28.257
1992 28.251
1993 28.514
1994 28.507
1995 28.600
1996 28.555
1997 28.238
1998 28.525
1999 28.368
2000 28.728
2001 28.877
2002 28.824
2003 28.937
2004 28.896
2005 28.774
2006 28.590
2007 28.332
2008 28.474
2009 28.799
2010 28.368
2011 28.513
2012 28.837
2013 28.833
2014 28.918

 

Some recent El Nino events for comparison:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

3.4 down to +0.8 this week. 

 

26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9
03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9

[Jonger]

I'm a enso newb...

 

Anyhow, where can I find the ONI index for the day? How is that figured out, is it an average of all 4 enso regions?

[skierinvermont]

Those maps show well that this is the most west based other than maybe 2004. More west based than 2009.

[bluewave]

Yeah, this was an outlier El Nino with the WPAC so warm and the fall (SON)trades not fully relaxing.

Typically during a fall El Nino there is a moderate to strong WWB pattern west of the Dateline

which never materialized this year. But that has been the hallmark of this event after the strong

WWB pattern last winter and early spring faded out. All the other SON tri-montlies from the CPC

in the 0.5 to 0.7 range like this year going back to 1950 featured at least a moderate WWB

pattern.

 

 

[milkman]

I'm a enso newb...

Anyhow, where can I find the ONI index for the day? How is that figured out, is it an average of all 4 enso regions?

CPC handles this...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

[wolfpackmet]

New down-welling wave developing by 140E?  Could reinforce current wave once it surfaces and dissipates. 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

All ENSO regions have remained steady, if not dropped, since mid-November. As usual, Nino region 1+2 has changed most significantly, progressing from its +1.5C peak around Nov 15 to -0.7C today.

 

[JBG]

All ENSO regions have remained steady, if not dropped, since mid-November. As usual, Nino region 1+2 has changed most significantly, progressing from its +1.5C peak around Nov 15 to -0.7C today.

Modokai or west-based?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Modokai or west-based?

During the past few months, both the atmosphere and sea surface temperature anomalies have supported a weak, east-based (traditional) El Nino event. However, as of late, the atmospheric pattern has resembled less of an El Nino and more of a La Nina.