IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/plot_850wnd_tvalue_8pan_novmar.gif The westerly wind burst over the Indian Ocean looks like its related to the strong MJO pulse moving into phase 3 and 4. Short term you would see a moderation in temperatures over the East for the first week of December. The unknown quantity in regard to the El Nino is if this will begin a propagation of the westerly wind burst pattern into the Western Pacific. Last December we saw an MJO 3-4 pulse with stronger IO WWB's. The WWB pattern propagated into the Western Pacific and started the ball rolling for the El Nino this fall and coming winter. If we can get a strong WWB pattern into the West Pacific from the winter into early fall, then the chances for a 2 year El Nino event go up. But it's still too early to guess how long El Nino conditions will or won't linger until we actually see how things look in 2015. So we will see the warmer SST anomalies push westward and up welling of cooler SSTs at the Eastern Regions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 New ENSO numbers from CPC. 3.0 up to 1.0 and 3.4 up to 0.9 and 1+2 down 0.8: 12NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9 19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Fwiw, the new JAMSTEC is predicting ~+1.0 for DJF in Nino 3.4. Last month's prediction was near +0.9 and September's map had ~+0.8 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Fwiw, the new JAMSTEC is predicting ~+1.0 for DJF in Nino 3.4. Last month's prediction was near +0.9 and September's map had ~+0.8 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tracksdc89 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hi, I am just a visitor and have been religiously following this thread for months. I am very impressed with the amount of knowledge everyone has. I have been rooting for an El Nino because of the devastatingly cold winter we suffered last year, and more importantly, I fear that the "resilient ridge" out in California is now a permanent fixture on the landscape which has condemned us east of the Rockies to bitterly cold winters from now on, and those in California to a perpetual drought. An El Nino would help, at least temporarily, with this seemingly unsolvable problem. However, despite the great and encouraging information that is posted on this thread, everyone on the outside seems to be dismissing any effects of an El Nino, saying that "the atmosphere isn't responding", or "It's a Modoki", or "any effects will be minimal at best". I have been looking at the pacific temperature anomalies daily, and each day they seem to be getting stronger, but nobody seems to care (outside of this thread). Every day I do a Google search for El Nino, and read anything that has been published in the past 24 hours. Everything I read breaks my heart, as it is the equivalent of saying that we are all wasting our time in hoping for the El Nino. What do you say in the face of this mounting dismissal? Do you believe that there is any truth to what they are saying? I know you wouldn't be continuing to spend so much time researching this if you thought it were for nothing. What exactly are your thoughts as to what this El Nino will bring? Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 tracksdc89, I think the kind of el Nino you're hoping for, the kind which results in the eastern half of the CONUS being flooded with Pacific air for the bulk of winter, is almost completely out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Hi, I am just a visitor and have been religiously following this thread for months. I am very impressed with the amount of knowledge everyone has. I have been rooting for an El Nino because of the devastatingly cold winter we suffered last year, and more importantly, I fear that the "resilient ridge" out in California is now a permanent fixture on the landscape which has condemned us east of the Rockies to bitterly cold winters from now on, and those in California to a perpetual drought. An El Nino would help, at least temporarily, with this seemingly unsolvable problem. However, despite the great and encouraging information that is posted on this thread, everyone on the outside seems to be dismissing any effects of an El Nino, saying that "the atmosphere isn't responding", or "It's a Modoki", or "any effects will be minimal at best". I have been looking at the pacific temperature anomalies daily, and each day they seem to be getting stronger, but nobody seems to care (outside of this thread). Every day I do a Google search for El Nino, and read anything that has been published in the past 24 hours. Everything I read breaks my heart, as it is the equivalent of saying that we are all wasting our time in hoping for the El Nino. What do you say in the face of this mounting dismissal? Do you believe that there is any truth to what they are saying? I know you wouldn't be continuing to spend so much time researching this if you thought it were for nothing. What exactly are your thoughts as to what this El Nino will bring? Thank you! What the last poster said. You are hoping for a super nino which is not happening this year. A weak el nino would actually help the probability of snow/cold for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 What the last poster said. You are hoping for a super nino which is not happening this year. A weak el nino would actually help the probability of snow/cold for our area. Assuming it's Modokai and not basin-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Tropical tidbits has 1+2 region below 0.5 now. Warmest anomlies now in 3.0 region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 NOAA numbers today: Nino 1+2 0.4C Nino 3 0.9C Nino 3.4 1.0C Nino 4. 0.9C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Dec 3 MEI update... The updated (October-November) MEI has increased by 0.35 standard deviations to +0.71, recovering about 70% of the losses incurred since July-August. Its current ranking has increased by 5, thus returning to weak El Niño conditions, here defined as the top 20 values since 1950. The long anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in 2014 appears to enter its second round, after a four-month stint from April-May through July-August. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+/-6) in October-November, but requiring a one-month increase by at least 0.05 since September-October yields the following five 'analogue' cases: 1958, '68, '69, '79, and '04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 ONI update: the SON trimonthly was at +0.5. The weeklies averaged +0.6. So, the gap has continued to close slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 TAO has cooled considerably over the last week. Also, Cowan's graph is down to only ~+0.75. So, I expect a drop Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 TAO has cooled considerably over the last week. Also, Cowan's graph is down to only ~+0.75. So, I expect a drop Monday. Forgive me for asking but what's the TAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Forgive me for asking but what's the TAO? Buoys as opposed to satellite. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/index.html Weak Nino still looking good for winter most likely. This cooling keeps low end moderate chances fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Buoys as opposed to satellite. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/index.html Weak Nino still looking good for winter most likely. This cooling keeps low end moderate chances fairly low. Thanks! Is there another link you can provide me that shows where the warmest anomalies are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks! Is there another link you can provide me that shows where the warmest anomalies are? YW. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif&P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 YW. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif&P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh Thanks. So would this mean we have a central-based el nino going on currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks. So would this mean we have a central-based el nino going on currently? Based on the TAO map, alone, I'd lean that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Based on the numbers above ([email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) isn't this a west based event? To have anomalies nearly as high or as high in region 4 as in regions 3 and 3.4 is pretty unusual in El Ninos. An anomaly of .9C in region 4 is a much larger standardized anomaly than .9C in region 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This looks like the warmest that the WPAC has every been during the beginning of December in an El Nino event going back to 1950. November WPAC SST's: 1950 27.8051951 28.2331952 28.0231953 28.0301954 27.6811955 27.9911956 28.0981957 28.1361958 28.2151959 28.1591960 28.1961961 27.9911962 28.0361963 27.9961964 27.7201965 27.9211966 28.2081967 27.9411968 28.2681969 28.3831970 28.2701971 27.8861972 28.1421973 28.1461974 27.8961975 27.6461976 28.2741977 28.1581978 28.2061979 28.3921980 28.3341981 28.5271982 28.1781983 28.3121984 28.3291985 28.5521986 28.4761987 28.8301988 28.1721989 28.4151990 28.6361991 28.2571992 28.2511993 28.5141994 28.5071995 28.6001996 28.5551997 28.2381998 28.5251999 28.3682000 28.7282001 28.8772002 28.8242003 28.9372004 28.8962005 28.7742006 28.5902007 28.3322008 28.4742009 28.7992010 28.3682011 28.5132012 28.8372013 28.8332014 28.918 Some recent El Nino events for comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 3.4 down to +0.8 this week. 26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.903DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm a enso newb... Anyhow, where can I find the ONI index for the day? How is that figured out, is it an average of all 4 enso regions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Those maps show well that this is the most west based other than maybe 2004. More west based than 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yeah, this was an outlier El Nino with the WPAC so warm and the fall (SON)trades not fully relaxing. Typically during a fall El Nino there is a moderate to strong WWB pattern west of the Dateline which never materialized this year. But that has been the hallmark of this event after the strong WWB pattern last winter and early spring faded out. All the other SON tri-montlies from the CPC in the 0.5 to 0.7 range like this year going back to 1950 featured at least a moderate WWB pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milkman Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I'm a enso newb... Anyhow, where can I find the ONI index for the day? How is that figured out, is it an average of all 4 enso regions? CPC handles this...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 New down-welling wave developing by 140E? Could reinforce current wave once it surfaces and dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 All ENSO regions have remained steady, if not dropped, since mid-November. As usual, Nino region 1+2 has changed most significantly, progressing from its +1.5C peak around Nov 15 to -0.7C today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 All ENSO regions have remained steady, if not dropped, since mid-November. As usual, Nino region 1+2 has changed most significantly, progressing from its +1.5C peak around Nov 15 to -0.7C today.Modokai or west-based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Modokai or west-based? During the past few months, both the atmosphere and sea surface temperature anomalies have supported a weak, east-based (traditional) El Nino event. However, as of late, the atmospheric pattern has resembled less of an El Nino and more of a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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