40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Strange they would release that this week, it almost seems that the El Nino is just firing up now? The CFSv2 shows a drop in the 3.4 index progged for next month, but the realities on the ocean basin and subsurface don't seem to concur. Especially with the SOI index and the PDO continuing to stay moderately positive. NOAA is always lagging behind the latest trends...every governmental entity is the same. Very sllooooooooowwww.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 NOAA is always lagging behind the latest trends...every governmental entity is the same. Very sllooooooooowwww.... Lol, often true. However, believe it or not, they just fixed the Oct. monthly ocean heat content and changed it to to ~+0.50 from near zero: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Lol, often true. However, believe it or not, they just fixed the Oct. monthly ocean heat content and changed it to to ~+0.50 from near zero: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt That makes more sense and is much more in line with what we would expect for a weak El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Saying the nino is slipping away is totally absurd. With such a strong subsurface Kelvin wave like above, do any of y'all think we make a run for borderline weak/moderate? I'd imagine once that starts surfacing, we could see a decent increase in Nino region temps, which would put it above the current ensemble forecasts of just a very weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Quite some warm water surfacing in the Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 regions and the Tropical Tidbits graph reflects that well. I think the update on Monday will be around +0.7 or 0.8 (being a little more generous). I think this Nino is over performing what some of the ensemble guidance is showing and seems to be getting its act together quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Seeing a nice increase in temps across most of the Nino regions. I think we're in the strengthening phases of a Nino. We're only a hop, skip, and a jump away from medium Nino threshold. Niño 4 0.9ºC Niño 3.4 0.8ºC Niño 3 0.9ºC Niño 1+2 0.5ºC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Seeing a nice increase in temps across most of the Nino regions. I think we're in the strengthening phases of a Nino. We're only a hop, skip, and a jump away from medium Nino threshold. Niño 4 0.9ºC Niño 3.4 0.8ºC Niño 3 0.9ºC Niño 1+2 0.5ºC We are really close to an El Nino Modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 We are really close to an El Nino Modoki. Looks like there will be some upwelling of cooler water in the Nino1+2 regions. Still a nice looking pocket of subsurface anomalies near and just east of the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 We are really close to an El Nino Modoki. That would only increase an already favorable pattern as we head into the winter. Talk about a textbook pattern! You couldn't ask for a better set up if you drew it up yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Looks like there will be some upwelling of cooler water in the Nino1+2 regions. Still a nice looking pocket of subsurface anomalies near and just east of the dateline. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Still have no idea why the CPC lowered the odds of El Nino. The Nino looks much better than it ever has. Another Kelvin Wave is clearly showing up. It also appears that this is the new background state, as we no longer have negative anomalies during the "upwelling" cycle of the wave. OHC is also shooting back up and is approaching mod-Nino territory. Also, the SOI has been solidly negative for a long time now, though the past two daily values have been positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Getting better everyday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Any chance trade winds could throw another wrench? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Still have no idea why the CPC lowered the odds of El Nino. The Nino looks much better than it ever has. Another Kelvin Wave is clearly showing up. It also appears that this is the new background state, as we no longer have negative anomalies during the "upwelling" cycle of the wave. OHC is also shooting back up and is approaching mod-Nino territory. Also, the SOI has been solidly negative for a long time now, though the past two daily values have been positive. "Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast (Fig. 7) have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C)". From their monthly discussion. Don't know why the CFS should be trusted at all. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 "Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast (Fig. 7) have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C)". From their monthly discussion. Don't know why the CFS should be trusted at all. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Right, that's what's most mind-boggling. As bluewave illustrated very well, the atmosphere HAS clearly responded to El Nino conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Right, that's what's most mind-boggling. As bluewave illustrated very well, the atmosphere HAS clearly responded to El Nino conditions. Just a WAG, but with the late start and it being supposedly "weak" that once the usual waning of mid to late winter begins, it won't take much to bump it from el nino to la nada. That five consecutive tri-monthly goal must look unreachable. Right now, it looks pretty coherent and it's not unprecedented for a late start, a la 52-53 or 58-59. Though those had Ninos the prior winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 So guys will it be a CP or EP El Nino. That seems to make a lot of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I believe it's going to be a "basin wide" nino, so closer to those central based nino's you see on the maps above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Doug, their latest thoughts are always being the curve. No surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Totally agree with everyone. I don't really get their reasoning either. Trades are neutral weaker than normal over the Eastern 2/3rds of the Pacific equatorial basin the next 7-10 per forecasts. The TAO sub-surface also continues to warm and is making it's way Eastward steadily at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nino 3.4 holding steady this week at 0.8. 05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.912NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nino 3.4 holding steady this week at 0.8. 05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 12NOV2014 22.4 0.9 25.8 0.9 27.5 0.8 29.5 0.9 What site do you get those numbers from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 What site do you get those numbers from? It's the CPC link. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thanks bluewave...book marked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Per tropicaltidbits, every Nino region is above +1.0C (moderate territory) in their daily values. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Per tropicaltidbits, every Nino region is above +1.0C (moderate territory) in their daily values. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html Also, the TAO map, which shows the average of the preceding five days. is the warmest it has been to date by a good margin. Taken literally, it is showing 3.4 near or a little warmer than +1.1 for 11/14-18 averaged. It wouldn't surprise me if the weekly released this Monday is at +1.0 and maybe even as warm as +1.1. Keep in mind, however, that the ONI (trimonthlies) is based on what has recently been a cooler dataset with regard to anomalies (~0.2 cooler recently though the discrepancy was narrowing) and also it tends to largely ignore shortlived spikes since it is a three month average. Regardless, any fears that we wouldn't actually get a Nino should be just about over now I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Latest IRI update has El Nino conditions until further notice. Average, dynamical models 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Latest IRI update has El Nino conditions until further notice. Average, dynamical models 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 Lol at the CFSv2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Australia's Weather Agency has gone from EL Nino watch to alert and at least 70% chance of El Nino occurring. Their numbers show more warming over past 2 weeks: Index Previous Current Temperature change(2 weeks)NINO3 +0.9 +1.0 0.1 °C warmerNINO3.4 +0.7 +0.9 0.2 °C warmerNINO4 +0.9 +1.1 0.2 °C warmer http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20141118.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It would be nice if we could get that strong westerly wind burst occurring over the Indian Ocean to propagate eastward into the Western Pacific like we saw from last December into February. u.anom.30.5S-5N.png D.png F14.png What impacts would that have on sensible weather over North America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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