2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Harry]

The October SOI ended up at -8.2, a bit more negative than my -6 to -7 prediction. This is the 5th (and 3rd solid) -SOI month in a row, a solid indicator of a likely El Nino per historic correlations since the late 1800's.

 

 

Yep and it is a weak nino which is key for this part of the country. Reasons why i am shaking my head at those who are so certain of below normal precip etc in this region for the winter. Not to mention they ignored the fall pattern which is not wise during a nino especially weak.

[Hoosier]

Yep and it is a weak nino which is key for this part of the country. Reasons why i am shaking my head at those who are so certain of below normal precip etc in this region for the winter. Not to mention they ignored the fall pattern which is not wise during a nino especially weak.

 

 

Agree with this.  I'd add that even if it ends up drier than average for some or all of the area, it could still easily end up being a decent if not snowy winter given the likelihood of cold anomalies.

[Harry]

Agree with this.  I'd add that even if it ends up drier than average for some or all of the area, it could still easily end up being a decent if not snowy winter given the likelihood of cold anomalies.

 

I am amazed at it honestly considering how many discussions has been had on this board ( and eastern ) over the years about this very thing. Think back to when me and Chuck got into it in 06 with his warm and dry call for this region. 8 years later and we are back to square 1..   Ofcourse i know some were not around back then and so they are excused.

 

Truthfully at one point i had my sights on below normal precip/snowfall as late as September ( after last winter and a possibility of a mod/stronger nino i had my reasons ) but i just cannot possibly go that way with the way both Sept and Oct ended up across this region and now knowing it will be a weak nino. Other things are considered but those are most obvious.

 

And yep dry doesn't mean snowless either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am amazed at it honestly considering how many discussions has been had on this board ( and eastern ) over the years about this very thing. Think back to when me and Chuck got into it in 06 with his warm and dry call for this region. 8 years later and we are back to square 1.. Ofcourse i know some were not around back then and so they are excused.

Truthfully at one point i had my sights on below normal precip/snowfall as late as September ( after last winter and a possibility of a mod/stronger nino i had my reasons ) but i just cannot possibly go that way with the way both Sept and Oct ended up across this region and now knowing it will be a weak nino. Other things are considered but those are most obvious.

And yep dry doesn't mean snowless either.

You still think the Nino may not be weak?

[Kory]

Australia's BOM is showing an increase in all Nino regions, except Nino 1.  With the strong subsurface Kelvin wave, which has +4.0 anomalies, still propagating eastward near the dateline, I do think it's possible might make a run at borderline weak/moderate (+1.0).  

 

[Harry]

You still think the Nino may not be weak?

 

 

Oh i think it is weak. If going by the prior method i am nearly certain we would have a weak Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh i think it is weak. If going by the prior method i am nearly certain we would have a weak Nino.

Ok, I was gonna say....high end weak is seemingly the ceiling at this stage. How did you do in 04-05?

[GaWx]

 I don't think the new trimonthly has been posted yet. ASO came in at +0.2. This compares to the average of the weeklies at ~+0.34. They are based on different datasets, however.

[GaWx]

Well, the Euro did quite well with its prediction of domination by -SOI's. If anything, the -SOI's verified slightly stronger than the model suggested.

Looking ahead per this morning's Euro: major changes coming quickly (most abrupt in quite some time). Starting with tomorrow, SOI's should rise pretty sharply and should be +'s soon. The peak +SOI should be ~10/31 to 11/1 (could be a couple of pretty solid +SOI's, the highest in quite awhile) though it appears that +SOI's should still dominate at least through 11/5. Nevertheless, the current MTD SOI of ~-9 should be enough to allow for October as a whole to still end up near the -6 to -7 range, meaning the 5th -SOI month in a row and a pretty reliable indicator when combined with other things that El Niño is quite likely.

Comparing to what I said above about the 10/26 Euro based SOI predictions, it verified pretty well through 10/31 (major rise to a positive peak around 10/31-11/1), but thereafter it fell back much more quickly than was predicted with negatives starting 11/2 and solid negatives 11/3-5 vs. positives dominating through 11/5+. I've noticed that these Euro based predictions have been tending to miss to the not negative enough side lately. I'm wondering if that could be some sort of feedback from the slowly warming Niño SST's.

Anyway, the next ten days look to be dominated by -SOI's per the 0Z 11/5 Euro (extra confident based on recent tendency for Euro based predictions to not verify negative enough) including some pretty strong -SOI's the next two or so days and what looks like the threat of the start of an even stronger -SOI pattern starting around 11/15 (possibly strongest sustained -SOI of last few months) quite possibly getting set. Combined with this meaning a very high chance now that November will be the 6th -SOI month in a row (five -SOI months in a row is already a pretty reliable indicator of El Nino but six just gives me even more confidence) as well as a warm enough subsurface and the recent warming of the weeklies to +0.6, I find it very hard to believe that we aren't finally in the early states of an actual strengthening El Niño.

Edit: keep in mind that the official trimonthlies may continue to lag the average of the relevant period's weeklies somewhat due to differences related to different datasets though the difference when looking at this latest trimonthly suggests a trend toward a reduction in these differences may finally be setting in.

[Kory]

What will be interesting is to see if the Nino 3.4 temp anomalies keep rising. CFSv2 ensemble mean, which hasn't handled this Nino too well, has the 3.4 temps maxing out at about +0.6 or +0.7 through next Spring. With the current potent subsurface Kelvin wave, I don't see why the Nino regions, especially 3.4, won't continue to rise.

[GaWx]

What will be interesting is to see if the Nino 3.4 temp anomalies keep rising. CFSv2 ensemble mean, which hasn't handled this Nino too well, has the 3.4 temps maxing out at about +0.6 or +0.7 through next Spring. With the current potent subsurface Kelvin wave, I don't see why the Nino regions, especially 3.4, won't continue to rise.

Kory, excellent point. Also, if this occurs, look out for the very realistic possibility for a continuous El Niño through the winter of 2015-6. We're quite overdue for a double winter El Niño and it isn't as unlikely as some may think based on looking back over the last 130 or so years. The last double was way back in 1986-8! This is an uncharacteristically long hiatus of no double.

[Absolute Humidity]

It will be interesting to see how the PDO values work out for the winter. A weak El Nino with a stronger +PDO

can boost the STJ to nearly the same degree as you would see with a stronger event. Notice how strong the

STJ was in February 78 with a 1.45 PDO and Nino 3.4 of 0.5. That STJ was nearly as strong as we saw in

February 2010 when there was a 0.82 PDO and a Nino 3.4 of +1.3.

 

FEB78.png

 

FEB10.png

Great Stuff Bluewave; if PDO values can stay above 1.00, the chances of a similar STJ should ensue this coming winter. 

PDO values 2014

Jan     0.30

Feb     0.38

March 0.97

April    1.13

May    1.80

June   0.82

July     0.70

Aug     0.67

Sept    1.08 

[Harry]

Ok, I was gonna say....high end weak is seemingly the ceiling at this stage. How did you do in 04-05?

 

Snowfall? That was a very decent winter out this way.. 81" i *believe* was the final tally? Most areas across the southern part of this state ended up 20+ above normal in the snowfall dept with the exception of the heart of the snowbelts ( just west of here up and down lake Michigan ) which ended up below normal as the lake machine was on the quiet side. Above normal precip..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snowfall? That was a very decent winter out this way.. 81" i *believe* was the final tally? Most areas across the southern part of this state ended up 20+ above normal in the snowfall dept with the exception of the heart of the snowbelts ( just west of here up and down lake Michigan ) which ended up below normal as the lake machine was on the quiet side. Above normal precip..

I think you may still clean up in the n steam systems, before they transfer to the cost and get my area......classic Miller B fashion.

You also did well in 1977-'78, I assume?

 

This season should be interesting to say the least, if we maintain a robust +PDO and strengthen that STJ.

May not be many areas east of the missississippi that don't share in the wealth.

[Weathergun]

Sept/Oct MEI number is lower at 0.36:

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the Cowan 3.4 number looks like it is about to pass the +0.7 mark as it has just risen to +0.695, the warmest since the early summer quick spike:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Also, the TAO maps of the last couple of days are showing pretty significant 3.4 warming mainly in eastern sections. Normally, when both of these warm, the NOAA weeklies have also warmed. So, I'm thinking that a warming to near +0.7 in next week's weekly is more than likely as of now.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif&P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh

The recent daily SOI's have been solidly negative and we've just had five -SOI months in a row. All of these signs strongly suggest that a weak El Niño is essentially getting going.

[DaculaWeather]

Fwiw, the Cowan 3.4 number looks like it is about to pass the +0.7 mark as it has just risen to +0.695, the warmest since the early summer quick spike:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Also, the TAO maps of the last couple of days are showing pretty significant 3.4 warming mainly in eastern sections. Normally, when both of these warm, the NOAA weeklies have also warmed. So, I'm thinking that a warming to near +0.7 in next week's weekly is more than likely as of now.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif&P2=900&P3=456&script=jsdisplay/scripts/biggif_startup.csh

The recent daily SOI's have been solidly negative and we've just had five -SOI months in a row. All of these signs strongly suggest that a weak El Niño is essentially getting going.

 

Henry Margusity @HenryMargusity

The El Nino coming on is like the speed of the lava flow in Hawaii! There is not El Nino yet, just neutral conditions on the negative side.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

 

Henry Margusity @HenryMargusity

The El Nino coming on is like the speed of the lava flow in Hawaii! There is not El Nino yet, just neutral conditions on the negative side.

 

 

On the negative side? Isn't it on the positive side? 

[GaWx]

Steve,

Henry is right based on the just released +0.2 trimonthly for 3.4, a still solidly neutral number. However, that was the ASO number. So, of course, it is going to lag the current snapshots and even the weeklies quite a bit. Also, the trimonthlies have been running a bit cooler than the average of the weeklies due to them being based on a different dataset though that gap reduced in the last trimonthly.

[GaWx]

On the negative side? Isn't it on the positive side?

I'm assuming he said negative because he was thinking -SOI's. But, yes, he should have said positive.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I'm assuming he said negative because he was thinking -SOI's. But, yes, he should have said positive.

Oh I see now.

[DaculaWeather]

NWS @NWS

Is #ElNino slipping away? Get the latest on @NOAAClimate's ENSO blog: 1.usa.gov/1xjGRYQ pic.twitter.com/6GvKy5H0Yg

 

NOAA Climate.gov @NOAAClimate

Is #ElNiño slipping away? Learn what's behind the drop in probabilities in the Nov. forecast: 1.usa.gov/1y9dFnw pic.twitter.com/Qcg58REPW8

[nflwxman]

 

NWS @NWS

Is #ElNino slipping away? Get the latest on @NOAAClimate's ENSO blog: 1.usa.gov/1xjGRYQ pic.twitter.com/6GvKy5H0Yg

 

NOAA Climate.gov @NOAAClimate

Is #ElNiño slipping away? Learn what's behind the drop in probabilities in the Nov. forecast: 1.usa.gov/1y9dFnw pic.twitter.com/Qcg58REPW8

 

Strange they would release that this week, it almost seems that the El Nino is just firing up now?  The CFSv2 shows a drop in the 3.4 index progged for next month, but the realities on the ocean basin and subsurface don't seem to concur.  Especially with the SOI index and the PDO continuing to stay moderately positive.

[griteater]

Strange they would release that this week, it almost seems that the El Nino is just firing up now?  The CFSv2 shows a drop in the 3.4 index progged for next month, but the realities on the ocean basin and subsurface don't seem to concur.  Especially with the SOI index and the PDO continuing to stay moderately positive.

 

Was thinking the same thing.  Nino prospects look better now than they have all year.

[scottmartin49]

Did you read the linked to blogpost? http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-november-enso-forecast-slip-slidin%E2%80%99-away 

[GaWx]

Strange they would release that this week, it almost seems that the El Nino is just firing up now?  The CFSv2 shows a drop in the 3.4 index progged for next month, but the realities on the ocean basin and subsurface don't seem to concur.  Especially with the SOI index and the PDO continuing to stay moderately positive.

 

 The CFSv2's latest 8 ensemble members, alone, fwiw are actually showing an increase in Dec with members mainly in the +0.8 to +1.1 range. In contrast, the earliest members were mainly within the +0.5 to +0.8 range. Based on the SOI as well as current warming 3.4 indications, the +0.8+ range for Dec. is believable.

 However, I just noticed that the subsurface for Oct. came in near neutral, a counterindicator of sorts. What a drop from Sep. to Oct.! I didn't expect to see that at all. Any thoughts about the not warm subsurface per the linked source? Friv, any opinion? I thought it was going to come in as warm based on your recent comments related to it

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 

 There is zero precedent for a neutral or cooler subsurface for a developing Nino going back to 1982-3. A cooling, especially if it persists, is more like what is common with an already mature Nino (often around Feb. looking in the list of sunbsurface #'s for each month in past Nino's). That covers nine Nino's (counting 1986-8 as one). Now, I'm not at all saying Nino cancel. However, this is at the very least a bit puzzling to be honest.

 

 

*Edited several times: added more about subsurface cooling

[The_Global_Warmer]

Saying the nino is slipping away is totally absurd.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Friv,

 I largely agree. However, why is the subsurface so much cooler in October vs. Sep. and now near perfect neutral? See my post right above yours. Does that look right to you?

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 

Edit: I just saw bluewave's post above this saying there is a glitch. Hmmmm.

[griteater]

GA - it looks like we are similar to Oct 2004 with the subsurface temps (2004 was slightly higher)...but as GW's images show, that's a stout kelvin wave pushing more warm anomalies east, and we don't have hostile trade winds.  I would expect the subsurface anomalies to rise east of the dateline (going forward in BW's graph).  All of this fits well into the weak nino ideas IMO

[JBG]

Strange they would release that this week, it almost seems that the El Nino is just firing up now?  The CFSv2 shows a drop in the 3.4 index progged for next month, but the realities on the ocean basin and subsurface don't seem to concur.  Especially with the SOI index and the PDO continuing to stay moderately positive.

What's interesting is that the atmosphere is acting in an El Niño fashion. California's already getting flooding and mudslides. The West Coast tropical storm season has been fairly prolific. The ocean temperatures just haven't matched.