griteater Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 More warm anomalies in the pipeline at depth...Nino 3.4 region doesn't want to play ball though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 3.4 should warm up again with those warmer waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 More warm anomalies in the pipeline at depth...Nino 3.4 region doesn't want to play ball though NOAA is saying that a Weak El Nino will make a return by next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Nino 3.4 is going to have trouble pushing much beyond borderline weak El Nino levels since the EQ. upper-ocean heat anomalies have declined slightly over the last week. Maybe we can bump up to 0.5-0.6 range on official CPC weeklies before leveling of again. The stronger trades at 150E to 180 are currently pushing back against much significant warming. bluewave - it looks to me like warm anomalies are continuing to be supplied at depth west of the dateline. With that chart showing upper ocean content east of the dateline, I wouldn't be surprised to see the values remain elevated above normal as the warm anomalies continue to push east, but we'll see. No doubt though that the wind anomalies haven't been Nino-like this year (neither has the OLR pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 10, 2014 Author Share Posted October 10, 2014 Things are definitely looking better wind wise for a weak nino coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Things are definitely looking better wind wise for a weak nino coming together. I see a pincer type scenario setting up. The warm SSTs between 150W and 180W + between 90W and 120W will meet up around 120W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Just put this blog out.. thought you all may (or may not) find it useful: http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/introducing-a-new-atmospheric-el-nino-southern-oscillation-index-its-current-state-and-upcoming-winter-implications/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Fascinating read Mike. Thank you for posting. What you say makes sense. Would you agree with the potential for a negative AO this winter as a base signal? If so, then combined with your ENSO signal, would you agree that the tendency will be to have a stormier and more up and down winter averaging near or slightly above zero on temp anomaly, but slightly wetter as well?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Just put this blog out.. thought you all may (or may not) find it useful: http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/introducing-a-new-atmospheric-el-nino-southern-oscillation-index-its-current-state-and-upcoming-winter-implications/It looks like a warmer winter is at hand. This could induce more precipitation concentrated storms to emerge from the SW US or GOM. If the AO is persistently negative, then we could see cold overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 12, 2014 Author Share Posted October 12, 2014 Definitely going to be some warming over the East Central equatorial Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 An email sent out by Dr. Paul Roundy from the University at Albany: All--Sorry for double posts. I don't have enough time to cover many of the details, but intraseasonal conditions, including a recent west Pacific westerly wind burst and interaction between the tropical and extratropical circulations and eastward radiation of atmospheric Kelvin waves over the Western Hemisphere have initiated a collapse in the east central Pacific equatorial easterlies: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/ http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.total.30.5S-5N.png The recent westerly wind burst west of the dateline and the collapse of the equatorial easterly wind support further growth of SST anomalies toward El Niño conditions in a large scale pattern similar in some respects to conditions of northern fall 1986. Equatorial east Pacific warmth is already in place (and has been for a few months): http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif The CFS V2 suggests that these signals mark development of coupling between atmospheric convection and SST anomalies: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/realtime/sst/075N_2_5.png http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/realtime/filteredhovs/075N_6_5.png http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/realtime/filteredhovs/075N_6_5_uwnd850.png everything after the horizontal black line is a 4-member ensemble mean forecast. Note that CFS does seem to have a bias toward producing such coupled outcomes in base state conditions that are not quite suitable to such outcomes in nature, but it does support the view that the developing El Niño event is not diminishing as some have suggested because of its apparent timing late in the seasonal cycle. Also, the CFS has a slow phase speed bias in propagating such coupled signals eastward. Another consequence of these intraseasonal signals is that the MJO appears to be becoming better organized, thereby setting the stage for potentially intense central Pacific westerly wind bursts in November. Best wishes-- Paul Roundy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Definitely going to be some warming over the East Central equatorial Pacific. That should at least help push some of the surfacing cooler water back west that has been infiltrating the current surfacing Kelvin Wave . If they were a bit further west, it would really help in the Kelvin Wave generation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The current lack of a strong WWB pattern over the key 140E to 180 region will keep the Nino 3.4 temperatures treading water around boderline weak El Nino thresholds. Notice how the trade winds are dominating that zone of the Western Pacific where strong WWBs occurred in recent El Nino Octobers of 2002,2004,2006, and 2009. It looks like the added warmth of the WPAC this October compared to 2002,2004,2006, and 2009 is limiting the top end development potential as it favors stronger trade winds. October 2014 so far 14.gif October El Nino composite comp.png Warmer WPAC SST.gif While the first half of October were associated with enhanced trade flow, it will mainly the result of the intraseasonal state. This state has flipped in accordance of the MJO pushing across the Western Hemipshere: The 7-Day GFS op forecast is calling for strong westerly wind anomalies to develop o/ the Date Line, and later over the East Pacific. I suspect if you average the second half of October, you will see a composite map similar to what you shown. Note that ENSO events occur on a spectrum and thus are not all the same. I'm not sure cherry picking a number of years where the ENSO criteria threshold was met in a particular month is the best way to go. That being said, I'm not sure what the best way is to compare other than this methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nino 3.4 looks a little better. Filling in a little more with the positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nino 3.4 looks a little better. Filling in a little more with the positive anomalies. It does but still mostly sideways in the area for an extended period. Maybe we get a break our way with the forecast trades. Gotta get something sustained going for us. It may not matter in the end and we are just nitpicking #'s. I'm not sure how much different eeking into official nino vs just a warm neutral makes at this point. PDO region is looking great. That's definitely a good thing as we close in on met winter. We've been in a + state for 8 months and Oct surely looks to continue that so 9 is in the bag. The last time we had a +pdo for that long started in Sept of 02 and continued for the next 26 months. Brief drop to neg in Oct-Dec 04 but went back + after that. A 37 month stretch with only 3 months negative. It's pretty remarkable how similar the state of the npac as a whole looks to this same time in 03. We'll have to see how the GOA looks in 2 weeks. It's going to be close to breaking the back on the warm anomalies. Ensemble guidance across the board shows low heights and temps in that region for an extended period. IMO- it's hard to ignore the 02-05 period for clues. Something in between those 3 winters seems possible and reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Westerlies had been developing and they're forecasted to continue. This would be good fore helping the current Kelvin wave, which appears to be surfacing currently. Although the Kelvin wave doesn't appear to be nearly the strength of the one back in April, it should be enough to spur at least a weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03SEP2014 21.7 1.2 25.3 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.2 0.5 10SEP2014 21.1 0.7 25.3 0.4 27.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 17SEP2014 21.0 0.7 25.2 0.4 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.8 24SEP2014 21.2 0.8 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.4 29.3 0.6 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The Euro is suggesting that -SOI's will be predominant over the next 9 days though they shouldn't be really strong negatives for the most part...just mainly weak to moderate. This will probably tilt October as a whole to the negative side, which would mean still another -SOI month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 ENSO is definitely warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Things are looking up for a weak to low end moderate Nino to verify: 1) Recent SOI's have been solidly negative (four days in a row of -10 or lower), which is the first time for that kind of thing in three weeks. The Euro suggests that the next week or so will be dominated by negatives (say mainly -5 to -20). This is enough to tell me that a final Oct SOI of, say, -4 or more negative is likely. That would make it the 5th -SOI month in a row, which is a rather sig. indicator for the start of El Nino based on 135+ years of data. 2) The Cowan graph shows 3.4 to be at +0.619, which is a rise of ~0.3 in its the last three days and brings it warmer than it was when that spike maximized a month ago. It is at its warmest of the last 3+ months. Oct. as a whole has a chance to end up near or above +0.5 in the monthlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Latest IRI update for October keeps things on a general sideways weak track going forward. Average, dynamical models 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 The peak for the statistical models moved up a tenth and the peak for the dynamical models moved down a tenth. Very good agreement now on a low end weak el nino for fall/winter ONI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 After all the models showing steeper increases for months failed and now flatlining, it would be ironic to get unexpected perfect conditions for a spike over 1.0. Not saying I think that will happen. It would just be fitting after what's transpired since spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Just standardized my daily SOI index using 0.5 degree ERA - Interim dating back to 1979. I have to say... quite the impressive -SOI locked in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 After all the models showing steeper increases for months failed and now flatlining, it would be ironic to get unexpected perfect conditions for a spike over 1.0. Not saying I think that will happen. It would just be fitting after what's transpired since spring. I believe that the Albany group is working on ENSO forecasts based on the state/location of Oceanic Kelvin waves. Should be fascinating to see the results.. I presume the climate model forecast is sensitive to the location of an oceanic Kelvin wave, which will cause the model to miss the intraseasonal variability in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Per TAO, there is a significant WWB along with rather sharp warming now in western 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 Per TAO, there is a significant WWB along with rather sharp warming now in western 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It's good to see that Nino 3.4 just approaching weak El Nino levels during the first half of October was enough to produce the typical El Nino 500 mb response of a strong Aleutian low and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Regarding the 500 mb height anomaly map of 10/1-14 posted above by Bluewave, it is interesting that along the southern and eastern fringe of that strong e us negative anomaly that the temp.'s were well above normal including about ~90th percentile warmth since 1930 at Atlanta. Actually, much of the E half of the US outside a chunk of the Midwest was warm even though you'd never suspect that based on this negative 500 mb height anomaly that dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Latest update on the IOD, it's gone positive and is continuing to rise. Good sign that at least a weak Nino is in the works. I suspect a rise in Nino 3.4 numbers come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Per TAO, there is a significant WWB along with rather sharp warming now in western 3.4. TAO 5 day mean now up to near +0.7 fwiw. Cowan pretty steady just below +0.6 (+0.572). It will be interesting to se if NOAA will release a warmer weekly tomorrow vs. last week's release of +0.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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