griteater Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 ENSO blog post update from Mike Ventrice - WSI http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-being-felt-by-the-atmosphere/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgarry68 Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 nino region 4 has warmed to 1.0c while most important 3 and 3.4 have steadily warmed now to around .6 and nino 1 and 1.2 have steadily declined the past several weeks which is key...low mid and upper level winds are aligned and also sub surface sea temps all pointing toward a very weak to weak west based nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 nino region 4 has warmed to 1.0c while most important 3 and 3.4 have steadily warmed now to around .6 and nino 1 and 1.2 have steadily declined the past several weeks which is key...low mid and upper level winds are aligned and also sub surface sea temps all pointing toward a very weak to weak west based nino. Welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 End of this month not looking as favorable as earlier this month for the continued development of the Nino...it will sort of have to tread water for a bit if this pans out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The cooler anomalies building beneath the Central Pacific is probably due to the roaring trades that bluewave has been talking about. If we keep the trades roaring like they have been, this cooler patch could continue to grow. In the mean time, the current Kelvin wave should begin to surface in the coming weeks, which should cause the western Nino regions to rise somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I've seen a lot of doubt about this oncoming El Nino. Here's some proof that we will very likely see a Nino of some sort this winter. The atmosphere, temperature wise, is already ahead of the game when it comes to El Ninos. All we're waiting on is the ocean (particularly Nino 3.4) to coincide with the atmosphere and we're in business as far as the Nino goes. 2009-2010 Nino is a great example of the atmosphere preceding the ocean in warming with the Nino (and it turned out to be a upper end moderate Nino). Usually, there is a lag, but not the case with 09-10 and with this oncoming Nino. Also, one look at the Pacific and you can see how warm it is. Another plus to getting a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 I've seen a lot of doubt about this oncoming El Nino. Here's some proof that we will very likely see a Nino of some sort this winter. The atmosphere, temperature wise, is already ahead of the game when it comes to El Ninos. All we're waiting on is the ocean (particularly Nino 3.4) to coincide with the atmosphere and we're in business as far as the Nino goes. 2009-2010 Nino is a great example of the atmosphere preceding the ocean in warming with the Nino (and it turned out to be a upper end moderate Nino). Usually, there is a lag, but not the case with 09-10 and with this oncoming Nino. Also, one look at the Pacific and you can see how warm it is. Another plus to getting a Nino. There's plenty of reason to doubt any type of robust Nino...I think most agree that a weak Nino is quite likely. We have another round of easterlies in the central regions right now...they have been quite stubborn this year. There is a sign of a WWB trying to get going well past the dateline toward the Indian ocean...but it remains to be seen if it can make any headway into the important regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Good write-up on IRI ENSO model performance - http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-good-have-enso-forecasts-been-lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Latest weekly SST anomaly for Nino 3.4 is +0.4. Here are the weekly readings back to early August... Aug 06: 0.0 Aug 13: 0.0 Aug 20: 0.3 Aug 27: 0.4 Sep 03: 0.4 Sep 10: 0.5 Sep 17: 0.5 Sep 24: 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted September 29, 2014 Author Share Posted September 29, 2014 Wind forecast show ENSO to pretty much be stuck in neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 It looks like the warm bias in the dynamical models may come from the inability to factor in the stronger trade winds. The mean absolute error is generally larger for the dynamical models, partly because they averaged too warm during the period, especially when they predicted the warmest SST levels (7) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061186/abstract?utm_content=buffer56c99&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer About the role of Westerly Wind Events in the possible development of an El Niño in 2014† Abstract Similarities between early 1997 and 2014 has prompted climate scientists to wonder if an El Niño matching the 1997 “El Niño of the century” could develop in 2014. Until April 2014, the equatorial Pacific exhibited positive heat content anomalies along with an eastward warm pool displacement similar to those found during the onset of strong El Niño events. Yet, in July 2014, the warm pool had retreated back to its climatological positions and equatorial temperature anomalies were much weaker than in mid-1997. Dedicated oceanic simulations reveal that these weak interannual anomalies can be attributed to differences in Westerly Wind Event (WWE) sequences. In contrast with 1997, the lack of WWEs from April to June significantly limited the growth of eastern Pacific anomalies and the eastward warm pool displacement in 2014. With the absence of additional WWE activity, prospects for a mature El Niño in late 2014 are fading. Is it that the models cannot handle winds correctly or could it be that they are struggling with oceanic waves that favor intraseasonal westerly/easterly states in the lower troposphere? Just from this year alone, its clear the models missed the magnitude of the upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that rolled through during August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Per today's 0Z Euro fwiw, none of the next 10 days would have a solid -SOI although it looks like we may get a small -SOI tomorrow and possibly over the next three or so days. After that, this run suggests some +SOI's. Bottom line: the persistent solid -SOI period of August and most of September has ended for at least the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Per today's 0Z Euro fwiw, none of the next 10 days would have a solid -SOI although it looks like we may get a small -SOI tomorrow and possibly over the next three or so days. After that, this run suggests some +SOI's. Bottom line: the persistent solid -SOI period of August and most of September has ended for at least the time being.So a weak El Nino is looking solid for DJF. Unless if we have a +SOI burst in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 The IOD or Indian Ocean Dipole is heading for positive territory for the first time since June. This is good news for the prospects of an El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 3.4 continues to deteriorate. Npac continues to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 03 and 04 have some similarities in the npac. 2 closest matches I can find for early Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 03 and 04 have some similarities in the npac. 2 closest matches I can find for early Oct. 2004 is about the closest you'll get if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 2004 is about the closest you'll get if you ask me. Agree for now. However, those 2 years progressed very differently through the month. IF the Aleutian low on the ensembles verifies, we could see a similar (unlikely to be as pronounced) config as late Oct 03. Could end up with the neg anoms centered in the western npac and the eastern side to remain above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It's will probably be early 2015 before we get an El Nino declaration. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that we need 3 consecutive months of +0.5 degree C anomalies before we get a declaration. We're currently sitting at +0.4 with no reinforcements any time soon to help boost the Nino 3.4 temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It's will probably be early 2015 before we get an El Nino declaration. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that we need 3 consecutive months of +0.5 degree C anomalies before we get a declaration. We're currently sitting at +0.4 with no reinforcements any time soon to help boost the Nino 3.4 temp. Easterly trade winds remain stout for the next week or so...we'll have to see if they finally weaken again beyond that. They've been the Kryptonite to this El Nino ever since the big April WWB that had talks of strong (and even super) Nino brewing. There's still some subsurface warmth to tap if the trades relax for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It's will probably be early 2015 before we get an El Nino declaration. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that we need 3 consecutive months of +0.5 degree C anomalies before we get a declaration. We're currently sitting at +0.4 with no reinforcements any time soon to help boost the Nino 3.4 temp. Most likely outcome unless Oct goes hog wild. No signs of that. At this stage in the game, it probably doesn't matter anymore. Whether it peaks at .6 or .7 or .5 won't have a whole lot of meaning irt sensible weather and patterns going forward. Maybe if nino 1-2 cools and the anoms are centered in 3.4 then it could be meaningful in a weak nino. I'll defer on that. I have no knowledge worth sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It's will probably be early 2015 before we get an El Nino declaration. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that we need 3 consecutive months of +0.5 degree C anomalies before we get a declaration. We're currently sitting at +0.4 with no reinforcements any time soon to help boost the Nino 3.4 temp. Technically, the NOAA ONI based declaration is done sort of after the fact once there are five trimonths in a row that are +0.5+ in 3.4. It is quite possible that SON will be the first trimonthly with a +0.5+. That trimonthly wouldn't be officially added to the table til early Dec. Then we'd have to wait til four months from then to get the 5th trimonthly in a row or early April! In reality, however, we'll all pretty much know well before then if we're very likely going to get an official Nino declared down the road by following the weeklies, satellite pics/Levi Cowan's graphs, TAO buoys, model projections, and other things. So, I'd think we'd have a pretty good idea by December if we are already in a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Oct 3rd release of the MEI is out. Aug/Sep reading came in at +0.50, which is down from the Jul/Aug number of +0.86 MEI Numbers for this year with ranking in parenthesis: Jan/Feb: -.269 (Negative Neutral) Feb/Mar: -.017 (Positive Neutral) Mar/Apr: +.152 (Positive Neutral) Apr/May: +.932 (Moderate El Nino) May/Jun: +.878 (Weak El Nino) Jun/Jul: +.816 (Weak El Nino) Jul/Aug: +.858 (Moderate El Nino) Aug/Sep: +.500 (Positive Neutral) It looks like the ONI (based on weekly SST) and MEI are in sync at the moment, teetering on Positive Neutral / Weak El Nino Also, the NOAA PDO reading for Sept is in at +0.72. That is up from the reading around +0.15 for both Jul and Aug, so this is a noteworthy increase, likely due to cooling in the NW Pacific. One would think the Univ of Washington reading will be higher for Sept as well when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Oct 3rd release of the MEI is out. Aug/Sep reading came in at +0.50, which is down from the Jul/Aug number of +0.86 MEI Numbers for this year with ranking in parenthesis: Jan/Feb: -.269 (Negative Neutral) Feb/Mar: -.017 (Positive Neutral) Mar/Apr: +.152 (Positive Neutral) Apr/May: +.932 (Moderate El Nino) May/Jun: +.878 (Weak El Nino) Jun/Jul: +.816 (Weak El Nino) Jul/Aug: +.858 (Moderate El Nino) Aug/Sep: +.500 (Positive Neutral) It looks like the ONI (based on weekly SST) and MEI are in sync at the moment, teetering on Positive Neutral / Weak El Nino Also, the NOAA PDO reading for Sept is in at +0.72. That is up from the reading around +0.15 for both Jul and Aug, so this is a noteworthy increase, likely due to cooling in the NW Pacific. One would think the Univ of Washington reading will be higher for Sept as well when it comes out. That's like a mixed signal..would like that MEI number close to 1..but the PDO is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The Nino 3.4 slide continues. Now down to +0.3 degrees C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The Nino 3.4 slide continues. Now down to +0.3 degrees C. Might be in response to the passage of the bubble of warmer water in the eastern regions. It did it earlier in the summer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 It's will probably be early 2015 before we get an El Nino declaration. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that we need 3 consecutive months of +0.5 degree C anomalies before we get a declaration. We're currently sitting at +0.4 with no reinforcements any time soon to help boost the Nino 3.4 temp. 5 consecutive trimonthlies are needed for an official El Nino declaration. 1979-80 for example had 4 consecutive trimonthlies of +0.5 and it just missed being classified. Looks like a good match at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The Nino 3.4 slide continues. Now down to +0.3 degrees C. The daily values have rebounded though the last 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 At this point i am just happy that the chances of a mod and strong nino are now just about zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 At this point i am just happy that the chances of a mod and strong nino are now just about zilch. ONI between +0.7 to -0.7 has about the same results for our part of the country during winter. Little chance we see anything that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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