2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Wow]

Really interesting pattern setting up over the npac basin next couple weeks. There are going to be big changes in the ssta config if it verifies and there's plenty of support. Especially for the goa region. That warm pool is going to take some hits. Probably doesn't mean much in the long term. It can change quickly. But it's been there for many months. Could be a good example of how fast things can change.

PDO region is likely going to improve quite a bit as well. Also looks like modest improvements will continue in 3.4. I think we'll all like how the Pac looks going into Oct.

 

The GOA flipped cold briefly last fall before returning for the winter as I recall.

[Bob Chill]

The GOA flipped cold briefly last fall before returning for the winter as I recall.

 

Yes it did. It went from warm to start Sept to this:

 

 

 

 

I don't think the potential upcoming changes mean much at all tbh. Just serves as an example (if it verifies) that a knockout blow can happen in a short time. The chicken/egg discussions through the forums put it all in perspective though. The warm pool is more likely a byproduct of lw patterns vs a driver. IMO- I think at best, the warm pool can help sustain an existing pattern through feedback but when it's time to go it's time to go. 

 

With the incredible -epo period we had last year, that area of the Pac has gotten a lot of attention. It's a good ssta config when the -epo is a strong driver of temps but it doesn't mean we can expect similar results just because the area of warmth exists. If we start seeing another dominant -epo develop this December it will certainly have my attention. But for now I'm not sure it means much if anything. I'm sure the real reasons for the -epo last winter are 3 levels over my head anyways. 

[griteater]

Has that long of a Westerly wind burst ever happened before?

 

It seems like a very long time compared to how it's been since I started following enso in 2011.

 

That would probably be something more consistent with a strong nino, like 97-98 / 82-83.  Figure below isn't a 850mb zonal wind anomaly plot like in the original post, but it's similar...a surface zonal wind stress anomaly plot from the oncoming strong nino in '97...showing the strong westerly wind stress in the western and central Pacific through the entire year.

 

 

Here's the same plot for the current year...

[GaWx]

The latest TAO five day averaged map suggests that 3.4 has risen rapidly to near the +0.7 mark, which is a good 0.2 to 0.3 over what it showed about 1-2 weeks ago and easily the warmest in a very long time. It also shows a WWB now all of the way into the western 3.4. In addition, Levi Cowan's graph has 3.4 now just over +0.5 after the sharpest rise in several months and with 3.4 still warming sharply. This is notable because Cowan and TAO have often not been in agreement on the trend. Furthermore, the SOI continues to be solidly negative and has been for six weeks. To add to all of this, the subsurface continues to be warm. All of this data suggests that the modeled September 3.4 warming has begun and El Niño will very likely verify for fall/winter.

[icebreaker5221]

The latest TAO five day averaged map suggests that 3.4 has risen rapidly to near the +0.7 mark, which is a good 0.2 to 0.3 over what it showed about 1-2 weeks ago and easily the warmest in a very long time. It also shows a WWB now all of the way into the western 3.4. In addition, Levi Cowan's graph has 3.4 now just over +0.5 after the sharpest rise in several months and with 3.4 still warming sharply. This is notable because Cowan and TAO have often not been in agreement on the trend. Furthermore, the SOI continues to be solidly negative and has been for six weeks. To add to all of this, the subsurface continues to be warm. All of this data suggests that the modeled September 3.4 warming has begun and El Niño will very likely verify for fall/winter.

 

We've also never (since 1950 at least) achieved a true Nino by winter with a JJA ONI below 0.1 (this year's was 0.0).  1979 might be our best analogue, which increased to an ONI of 0.6 by NDJ but did not achieve 5 consecutive tri-monthly periods of >=0.5. The PDO was also somewhat similar that year. 

[Kory]

The strength of this Nino will definitely impact a lot of things down the road.  I think the biggest thing is the stronger the Nino, the more likely we'll see a Nina the following winter.  Most moderate to strong Ninos are followed by a Nina.  Where as, if the Nino stays very weak or if we linger in positive neutral, it may be followed up by an additional Nino (albeit, it's rare, but has happened).   

[andyhb]

The strength of this Nino will definitely impact a lot of things down the road.  I think the biggest thing is the stronger the Nino, the more likely we'll see a Nina the following winter.  Most moderate to strong Ninos are followed by a Nina.  Where as, if the Nino stays very weak or if we linger in positive neutral, it may be followed up by an additional Nino (albeit, it's rare, but has happened).   

 

It helps that we are currently in a -PDO regime.

 

Since 1950, in the cold PDOs from 1947-1976 and from the end of 1998 to present, there have been 13 Ninos (including the 1997-98 Nino since that was the flip into the current regime) and seven of those had La Nina follow them.

 

What's more interesting is that the Springs that followed these Ninas are as follows (and the strength of the Nino that proceeded them): 1955 (weak), 1965 (moderate), 1971 (weak), 1974 (strong), 1999 (strong), 2008 (weak/low end moderate) and 2011 (moderate-strong).

 

I think you can fill in the blanks to see where I'm going with this.

[JBG]

The strength of this Nino will definitely impact a lot of things down the road.  I think the biggest thing is the stronger the Nino, the more likely we'll see a Nina the following winter.  Most moderate to strong Ninos are followed by a Nina.  Where as, if the Nino stays very weak or if we linger in positive neutral, it may be followed up by an additional Nino (albeit, it's rare, but has happened).

As in 1968-9 followed by 1969-70?

[GaWx]

 At another forum, someone asked about the chances of a multiyear Nino coming up because the CFS seems to suggesting that's possible. Here was my response:

 

 The last multiyear Nino was mid 1986 to early 1988. Prior to that, it was mid 1968 to early 1970. Others (excluding back to back like 1976-7 and 1977-8): early 1953 through early 54 (though it is borderline if this should even count), late 1939 through early 1942, possibly late 1929 through mid 1931, late 1913 through mid 1915, mid 1904-early 1906, late 1899 through early 1901, and possibly mid/late 1884 through early 1886.
So, looking back at history, one thing I can say is that we're due for a multiyear Nino. I mean it has been 26.5 years since the end of the last one, which is about as long a period as there has been between them since the end of the last one, even if 1953-4 isn't counted.
 

[Kory]

 At another forum, someone asked about the chances of a multiyear Nino coming up because the CFS seems to suggesting that's possible. Here was my response:

 

 The last multiyear Nino was mid 1986 to early 1988. Prior to that, it was mid 1968 to early 1970. Others (excluding back to back like 1976-7 and 1977-8): early 1953 through early 54 (though it is borderline if this should even count), late 1939 through early 1942, late 1913 through mid 1915, late 1899 through early 1901, and possibly mid/late 1884 through early 1886.

So, looking back at history, one thing I can say is that we're due for a multiyear Nino. I mean it has been 26.5 years since the end of the last one, which is about as long a period as there has been between them, even if 1953-4 isn't counted.

 

I wouldn't trust any ENSO model with this Nino.  They've all performed horribly.  For example, here's CFSv2 forecast from April.  Busted big time. 

 

[GaWx]

I wouldn't trust any ENSO model with this Nino.  They've all performed horribly.  For example, here's CFSv2 forecast from April.  Busted big time. 

 

Kory,

 Excellent point and I agree. Regardless, there still is always the chance for a multiyear Nino. So, I still think it is worthwhile to analyze the frequency to give us some idea of the chance of it happening.

 

Edit: I mean we've had seven straight single fall/winter Ninos. There hasn't been this long of a streak of single fall/winter Ninos since at least the late 1800's. So, we're due for a multiyear Nino in that regard fwiw (in case are any cyclical forces in play).

[Kory]

Kory,

 Excellent point and I agree. Regardless, there still is always the chance for a multiyear Nino. So, I still think it is worthwhile to analyze the frequency to give us some idea of the chance of it happening.

Of course, I'm not discounting that completely, but they're rare.  Back to back Ninos are possible even in a -PDO era as listed in your years (1968-1970).  As far an ENSO goes, I found that the last several years has mimicked the 70s a lot.  

[GaWx]

Of course, I'm not discounting that completely, but they're rare.  Back to back Ninos are possible even in a -PDO era as listed in your years (1968-1970).  As far an ENSO goes, I found that the last several years has mimicked the 70s a lot.  

 

 

Kory,

 I guess my take is that they haven't been all that rare in terms of frequency considering that the current streak of seven straight single fall/winter Ninos is the longest since at least the late 1800's. If I count the three that are questionable as multiyear, I count 24 singles vs. 9 multiples. 24:9 ratio is not that high. I mean that would imply more than a 1 in 4 chance that any one Nino will end up as a multiple, which is way too high to discount imo. Even if all three questionable are not counted as multiple, I still count 27 singles and six multiples. So, even with that, the implication would be almost a 1 in 5 chance that any one Nino is going to end up as a multiple. Even that would seem high enough to keep multiple as a realistic possibility.

 

**Edited**

[JBG]

At another forum, someone asked about the chances of a multiyear Nino coming up because the CFS seems to suggesting that's possible. Here was my response:

 

 The last multiyear Nino was mid 1986 to early 1988.

What about 1990-5? Or 2002-5? Aren't we in a long-term -PDO phase that would make a multi-year Niño unlikely?

[GaWx]

What about 1990-5? Or 2002-5? Aren't we in a long-term -PDO phase that would make a multi-year Niño unlikely?

 

1) 1990-5 had two Nino's (91-2 & 94-5) that were separated by neutral. 2002-5 was similar (02-03 & 04-05). So, these weren't multiple year Nino's.

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

2) -PDO: good Q. I've found -PDO regime reduces frequency of stronger Nino's but increases weaker Nino freq. Well, 1968-70 was on weaker side. So, was 1953-4. These were both during a -PDO regime. Some other multiples were weak: 1913-15 and 1884-6. 1986-8 was moderate to strong but was during a +PDO. 1939-42 was a very rare triple (only one I've seen since late 1800's) that included a strong segment and was also during a +PDO. 1929-31 included a strong segment but was also during a +PDO.

 All of this fwiw.

[Harry]

1) 1990-5 had two Nino's (91-2 & 94-5) that were separated by neutral. 2002-5 was similar (02-03 & 04-05). So, these weren't multiple year Nino's.

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

2) -PDO: good Q. I've found -PDO regime reduces frequency of stronger Nino's but increases weaker Nino freq. Well, 1968-70 was on weaker side. So, was 1953-4. These were both during a -PDO regime. Some other multiples were weak: 1913-15 and 1884-6. 1986-8 was moderate to strong but was during a +PDO. 1939-42 was a very rare triple (only one I've seen since late 1800's) that included a strong segment and was also during a +PDO. 1929-31 included a strong segment but was also during a +PDO.

 All of this fwiw.

 

 

I admit i do not follow that chart as i once did. Back when 53-54 was not listed on there as a Nino and ofcourse a few others changed as well via the updates. The prior one.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml 

[Bob Chill]

I wouldn't trust any ENSO model with this Nino.  They've all performed horribly.  For example, here's CFSv2 forecast from April.  Busted big time. 

 

 

Long lead enso modeling has proven to be mostly unreliable. We went through the same thing last year. We're getting into higher skill range with shorter leads now so confidence in model output can be a good bit higher than 5 months ago. Trends have been pretty good across the board.

 

I can totally live with yesterday's CFSv2. Steady as she goes for now. 

 

[Kory]

Long lead enso modeling has proven to be mostly unreliable. We went through the same thing last year. We're getting into higher skill range with shorter leads now so confidence in model output can be a good bit higher than 5 months ago. Trends have been pretty good across the board.

 

I can totally live with yesterday's CFSv2. Steady as she goes for now. 

 

I wouldn't bet on it if this were Vegas, especially with a few of the latest members bringing the Nino up to +1.0-1.5.  It's a small sample size, but I saw a figure that nearly 80% of Ninos that reach moderate status are usually followed up by a Nina.  As I said in my previous post a couple days ago, I think the strength will determine what we get for 2015.  

 

A double whammy Nino could spell disaster for some of those Pacific countries.   

 

[GaWx]

I wouldn't bet on it if this were Vegas, especially with a few of the latest members bringing the Nino up to +1.0-1.5. It's a small sample size, but I saw a figure that nearly 80% of Ninos that reach moderate status are usually followed up by a Nina. As I said in my previous post a couple days ago, I think the strength will determine what we get for 2015.

A double whammy Nino could spell disaster for some of those Pacific countries.

I do agree with you that, especially with us supposedly still being in a -PDO regime, the best shot at a double Niño would be if the first one is on the weak side. I'm not actually predicting a double though it isn't IMO a very low chance possibility as I've been emphasizing. I'll put it this way: if Vegas were paying off, say, something like 7:1 on a double Niño, I'd go ahead and take those odds now. If they were paying, say, something like 2:1, I wouldn't take the odds as they'd be too low for me.

[Bob Chill]

I do agree with you that, especially with us supposedly still being in a -PDO regime, the best shot at a double Niño would be if the first one is on the weak side. I'm not actually predicting a double though it isn't IMO a very low chance possibility as I've been emphasizing. I'll put it this way: if Vegas were paying off, say, something like 7:1 on a double Niño, I'd go ahead and take those odds now. If they were paying, say, something like 2:1, I wouldn't take the odds as they'd be too low for me.

 

I can't even think about next year lol. Let see if we can figure out where this year is going .  

[GaWx]

I can't even think about next year lol. Let see if we can figure out where this year is going .  

 

 Good point! One year at a time is wise advice though the subject of a double Nino is kind of interesting to me from a stat standpoint and because there hasn't been one since a good number of years before the web started to really get going...a really long time.

[AlaskaETC]

I do agree with you that, especially with us supposedly still being in a -PDO regime, the best shot at a double Niño would be if the first one is on the weak side. I'm not actually predicting a double though it isn't IMO a very low chance possibility as I've been emphasizing. I'll put it this way: if Vegas were paying off, say, something like 7:1 on a double Niño, I'd go ahead and take those odds now. If they were paying, say, something like 2:1, I wouldn't take the odds as they'd be too low for me.

As a Vegas native, it wouldn't surprise me if Vegas started taking odds on El Nino development.

[icebreaker5221]

I wouldn't trust any ENSO model with this Nino.  They've all performed horribly.  For example, here's CFSv2 forecast from April.  Busted big time. 

 

The Euro has done as poorly as the CFS so far.

 

That's not surprising at all though, as both those forecasts were made in April.  ENSO models have been shown time and time again to be least skillful in boreal spring. 

e.g. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4022.1

[Bob Chill]

At least the euro sept plumes are similar to the cfs. Relatively tight spread through mid Nov.

 

[griteater]

August release of the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plumes is out.  Average of all models combined (25 total ENSO models) yields a weak nino with a peak of +0.7.  That peak value has decreased a few tenths over the past few months when looking at the average of all models.

 

Sept release is out and is virtually unchanged...25 model mean of a weak nino with +0.7 peak - http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

[packbacker]

Sept release is out and is virtually unchanged...25 model mean of a weak nino with +0.7 peak - http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

Thanks for posting...at least it's back up over 70% again...

 

[bluewave]

This September is featuring the strongest trade winds over the Western Pacific

before any El Nino of the 2000's do far. So it may be that  the warmer SST's over

the Western Pacific are keeping the trade winds up despite the -SOI pattern

which is normally associated with westerly wind bursts over the Western Pacific.

The current forecast continues this active trade wind pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kory]

You can look down to the South and see that an El Nino pattern is beginning to take over.  Those westerlies across the Gulf and wet conditions across the SW, Texas, and Gulf Coast are hints at the weather for the coming months.  

[Jonger]

You can look down to the South and see that an El Nino pattern is beginning to take over.  Those westerlies across the Gulf and wet conditions across the SW, Texas, and Gulf Coast are hints at the weather for the coming months.  

 

Or hurricane remnants. 

[Kory]

Or hurricane remnants. 

Yes, hurricane remnants are bringing the moisture, but it's the global winds are acting more like a Nino.  Hence, why the moisture went into the Southern U.S.