2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Bob Chill]

is the postive PDO more important for us than the Nino becoming moderate. I would think a Positive PDO and even a weak Nino would give us some nice weather this winter

Mixed stats there in the past. The thing about 02-03/09-10 is they had a solid moderate nino. Once you get into weak nino land things become kinda muddy.

76-77 (door to door +pdo)

77-78 (neg dec pos JFM)

79-80 (not a nino on the books but a pretty warm neutral. neg DJ pos FM)

04-05 (barely neg dec pos JFM)

06-07 (basically neutral)

We know we don't want an anomalous -pdo. Beyond that isn't clear imho.

[Kory]

The SOI has at least reached Nino threshold at -8.0.  Now, if it can stay there for the next few weeks to months is another story.  

 

[Dsnowx53]

The SOI has at least reached Nino threshold at -8.0.  Now, if it can stay there for the next few weeks to months is another story.  

 

The sustained period of -SOI has definitely helped the Nino to fight back somewhat. That C PAC warm pool continues to grow, and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is increasingly evident and getting stronger.

[The_Global_Warmer]

GAWX-

 

 

How does the Euro look in terms of sustaining the -SOI period?

[Amped]

CFS V2 still pretty bullish showing a weak to moderate west based Nino.with some members near neutral. Good sign that no members are negative.

 

[GaWx]

GAWX-

 

 

How does the Euro look in terms of sustaining the -SOI period?

 

Friv,

  It is a go for a continued mainly -SOI period, which gets us toward the end of August. We're in the midst of the longest daily -SOI streak since March. August will almost certainly end up as the most negative -SOI month since March's -12. I'm currently thinking within the -7 to -10 range, which is negative enough to be consistent with a developing weak to perhaps lower end moderate Nino. The 0Z 8/13 Euro predicted the most recent period well.

[Kory]

IOD is sharply negative, actually the most since the developing La Nina of 2010-2011.  Looks like this El Nino is going to be weak, as a stronger Nino is favored when it's positive.  

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

IOD is sharply negative, actually the most since the developing La Nina of 2010-2011.  Looks like this El Nino is going to be weak, as a stronger Nino is favored when it's positive.  

 

 

 

It was also negative in March when the SOI plummeted. 

[griteater]

August release of the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plumes is out.  Average of all models combined (25 total ENSO models) yields a weak nino with a peak of +0.7.  That peak value has decreased a few tenths over the past few months when looking at the average of all models.

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 temp anomaly moved up to +0.3 in today's NOAA update (up from 0.0 last week), and upper ocean heat content is on the rise with the new downwelling kelvin wave.

 

[griteater]

Jason-2 satellite sea level height anomaly animation also shows the kelvin waves...big one that moved across the Pacific basin during the March-May timeframe, and the new one now in the central Pacific.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

That's a great post above.

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 temp anomaly moved up to +0.3 in today's NOAA update (up from 0.0 last week), and upper ocean heat content is on the rise with the new downwelling kelvin wave.

 

 This 3.4 increase was very well predicted by the Euro weeklies a couple of weeks ago. Also, this is not surprising considering that the SOI continues within its second longest negative streak of the year by far. I think we will add at least a 24th -SOI day in a row tomorrow. The longest streak of 2014 is 25 days. We'll have a shot to tie or maybe even break that 25 day streak. Regardless, it appears we may finally have some +SOI's within a few days.

 

 http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

 

Edit: By the way, a 25-26 day -SOI streak during the last half of the year is not at all chickenfeed and therefore, is an indicator that El Nino (weak to possibly moderate peak) is favored for the upcoming fall/winter per that link that goes back to 1991. This is the kind of thing that makes following the SOI a valuable tool for predicting what's ahead for Nino 3.4 SST's.

 

Edit #2: The just released Euro weeklies have Nino 3.4 remaining fairly steady over the next four weeks while it weakens 1+2 quite a bit. These two things, along with the current long -SOI streak, tell me that a west based weak Nino's chance continues to increase. If moderate were to have a higher chance than weak, I would have expected a bit more warming to be showing up on the weeklies. I'm now thinking that a weak Nino is most favored followed by a low end moderate and then followed by neutral positive.

 

 These same weeklies have the +PDO continuing although weakening somewhat during this period. I've already predicted a +PDO averaged this DJF (~80% chance based on current +PDO as well as historical stats). Getting a -NAO averaged over DJF may be the key as to whether or not we get an overall very cold eastern US winter.

[michsnowfreak]

 This 3.4 increase was very well predicted by the Euro weeklies a couple of weeks ago. Also, this is not surprising considering that the SOI continues within its second longest negative streak of the year by far. I think we will add at least a 24th -SOI day in a row tomorrow. The longest streak of 2014 is 25 days. We'll have a shot to tie or maybe even break that 25 day streak. Regardless, it appears we may finally have some +SOI's within a few days.

 

 http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

 

Edit: By the way, a 25-26 day -SOI streak during the last half of the year is not at all chickenfeed and therefore, is an indicator that El Nino (weak to possibly moderate peak) is favored for the upcoming fall/winter per that link that goes back to 1991. This is the kind of thing that makes following the SOI a valuable tool for predicting what's ahead for Nino 3.4 SST's.

 

Edit #2: The just released Euro weeklies have Nino 3.4 remaining fairly steady over the next four weeks while it weakens 1+2 quite a bit. These two things, along with the current long -SOI streak, tell me that a west based weak Nino's chance continue to increase. If moderate were to have a higher chance than weak, I would have expected a bit more warming to be showing up on the weeklies. I'm now thinking that a weak Nino is most favored followed by a low end moderate and then followed by neutral positive.

 

 These same weeklies have the +PDO continuing although weakening somewhat during this period. I've already predicted a +PDO averaged this DJF (~80% chance based on current +PDO as well as historical stats). Getting a -NAO averaged over DJF may be the key as to whether or not we get an overall very cold eastern US winter.

I was cringing at the talk of a Super Nino back in spring...but a weak Nino I will take!

[Harry]

I was cringing at the talk of a Super Nino back in spring...but a weak Nino I will take!

 

 

Now to keep the NAO from going negative or too negative.. That + another -EPO would be fine by me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not too many weak Nino/+NAO couplets....

[WEATHER53]

40/70.

Weak but decent nino and a wandering vortex bodes well.

[jm1220]

Now to keep the NAO from going negative or too negative.. That + another -EPO would be fine by me.

:angry:

[40/70 Benchmark]

40/70.

Weak but decent nino and a wandering vortex bodes well.

Yes, ideally, the PV will be on this side of the globe, but not firmly planted in any one spot....especially not near by YBY. Getting large snowstorms is not ALL about cold, although you do want it around (IE. PV on our side of globe), but its more about volatility. The moral of the story is a PV wandering in the vicinity of Hudsons Bay, coupled with a modest sub tropical jet is $$$.

[WEATHER53]

Yes, ideally, the PV will be on this side of the globe, but not firmly planted in any one spot....especially not near by YBY. Getting large snowstorms is not ALL about cold, although you do want it around (IE. PV on our side of globe), but its more about volatility. The moral of the story is a PV wandering in the vicinity of Hudsons Bay, coupled with a modest sub tropical jet is $$$.

Yes indeed now put some clothes on.   

[Dsnowx53]

August SOI comes in at -10.9, and the 90-day SOI is down to -5.7. Upper Ocean OHC continues to rise as well, and that warm pool looks impressive. No true westerly wind bursts appear evident, though, and the newest OKW while impressive, doesn't look nearly as strong as the one we had in March.

[Wannabehippie]

Come on El Nino, you can do it! California needs the change in weather pattern and lots of rain that you usually bring!

[JBG]

Query from someone who's not a pro-met.

 

The years that we have had late--season heat, with a few exceptions, seem to lead to La Niña or cold-neutral conditions. Think 1953, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1993, 1995, 2005, 2007 and 2010.  Of those, 1970, 1973, and 2007 featured notably mild summers up to the point of late summer. The only exception I can think of with big late-season heat that presaged El Niño or warm-neutral condtiions was 1991. Coiuld this "El Niño" severely disappoint?

[thewxmann]

Come on El Nino, you can do it! California needs the change in weather pattern and lots of rain that you usually bring!

 

Yes please, we are absolutely desperate for water here.

[Kory]

Nino 3.4 and 4 are the only areas that have warmed since the last update.  Nino 1+2 continue to sharply decline, as we're still seeing the effects of the upwelling cool water.

 

Niño 4 0.5ºC

Niño 3.4 0.4ºC

Niño 3 0.4ºC

Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

 

 

It's evident that another EKW is making it's way eastward.  Nothing nearly as strong as the one back in April.  

 

[GaWx]

 If the TAO buoy based graphic is reflecting reality, there has been pretty substantial warming in 3.4 over the last few days. If this doesn't reverse quickly and if NOAA goes pretty much with TAO's warming, the Monday weekly will likely be even warmer than the prior week's +0.4. By the way, the early August Euro weeklies predicted the 3.4 warming of the last couple of weeks quite well.

 This recent warming is certainly consistent with the current 33 day string of SOI's (8 days longer than the one from early in 2014). The strongest warming was in late August, which is consistent with a rather common couple of weeks lag after a downturn in the SOI around this time of year. There is a chance that the 33 day -SOI string will be broken tomorrow. It will be close. If it stops at 33 days, how does that stack up with other long -SOI strings during the last half of the year with an oncoming Nino (since 1991-2)?

 

Oncoming Nino: # days -SOI

'09: 28 days

'06: 16

'04: 19

'02: 31

'97: 72

'94: 34

'91: 31

 

 So, the only Nino since 1991-2 that had a significantly longer longest -SOI string late in the oncoming year was the super Nino of 1997-98, which had a 72 day string.

 

 In contrast, the late 2012 Nino false alarm had only a 13 day string for its longest. 

 

 What were the longest non-Nino last half of year -SOI strings since 1991?

 

Non-Nino: # days -SOI

'92: 39

'93: 38

'01: 22

 

 So, the Nino -SOI strings tell me that an oncoming Nino is quite likely. However, at the same time, the 1992 and 1993 strings tell me to still be wary of another false alarm like 2012.

 

 The August 2014 SOI came in at -10.1. I counted 26 of 36 Augusts (72%) with SOI of -7 or lower ended up preceding (or were already within) a Nino. So, August 2012's -10.1 tells me El Nino is quite likely about to start.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

 If the TAO buoy based graphic is reflecting reality, there has been pretty substantial warming in 3.4 over the last few days. If this doesn't reverse quickly and if NOAA goes pretty much with TAO's warming, the Monday weekly will likely be even warmer than the prior week's +0.4. By the way, the early August Euro weeklies predicted the 3.4 warming of the last couple of weeks quite well.

 This recent warming is certainly consistent with the current 32 day string of SOI's (7 days longer than the one from early in 2014). The strongest warming was in late August, which is consistent with a rather common couple of weeks lag after a downturn in the SOI around this time of year. There is a chance that the 32 day -SOI string will be broken tomorrow. It will be close. If it stops at 32 days, how does that stack up with other long -SOI strings during the last half of the year with an oncoming Nino (since 1991-2)?

 

Oncoming Nino: # days -SOI

'09: 28 days

'06: 16

'04: 19

'02: 31

'97: 72

'94: 34

'91: 31

 

 So, the only Nino since 1991-2 that had a significantly longer longest -SOI string late in the oncoming year was the super Nino of 1997-98, which had a 72 day string.

 

 In contrast, the late 2012 Nino false alarm had only a 13 day string for its longest. 

 

 What were the longest non-Nino last half of year -SOI strings since 1991?

 

Non-Nino: # days -SOI

'92: 39

'93: 38

'01: 22

 

 So, the Nino -SOI strings tell me that an oncoming Nino is quite likely. However, at the same time, the 1992 and 1993 strings tell me to still be wary of another false alarm like 2012.

 

 The August 2014 SOI came in at -10.1. I counted 26 of 36 Augusts (72%) with SOI of -7 or lower ended up preceding (or were already within) a Nino. So, August 2012's -10.1 tells me El Nino is quite likely about to start.

 

Wow. So this looks like it could go either way. Interesting. Nice write up. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

 If the TAO buoy based graphic is reflecting reality, there has been pretty substantial warming in 3.4 over the last few days. If this doesn't reverse quickly and if NOAA goes pretty much with TAO's warming, the Monday weekly will likely be even warmer than the prior week's +0.4. By the way, the early August Euro weeklies predicted the 3.4 warming of the last couple of weeks quite well.

 This recent warming is certainly consistent with the current 32 day string of SOI's (7 days longer than the one from early in 2014). The strongest warming was in late August, which is consistent with a rather common couple of weeks lag after a downturn in the SOI around this time of year. There is a chance that the 32 day -SOI string will be broken tomorrow. It will be close. If it stops at 32 days, how does that stack up with other long -SOI strings during the last half of the year with an oncoming Nino (since 1991-2)?

 

Oncoming Nino: # days -SOI

'09: 28 days

'06: 16

'04: 19

'02: 31

'97: 72

'94: 34

'91: 31

 

 So, the only Nino since 1991-2 that had a significantly longer longest -SOI string late in the oncoming year was the super Nino of 1997-98, which had a 72 day string.

 

 In contrast, the late 2012 Nino false alarm had only a 13 day string for its longest. 

 

 What were the longest non-Nino last half of year -SOI strings since 1991?

 

Non-Nino: # days -SOI

'92: 39

'93: 38

'01: 22

 

 So, the Nino -SOI strings tell me that an oncoming Nino is quite likely. However, at the same time, the 1992 and 1993 strings tell me to still be wary of another false alarm like 2012.

 

 The August 2014 SOI came in at -10.1. I counted 26 of 36 Augusts (72%) with SOI of -7 or lower ended up preceding (or were already within) a Nino. So, August 2012's -10.1 tells me El Nino is quite likely about to start.

 

What does the Euro show going forward?

 

[GaWx]

Wow. So this looks like it could go either way. Interesting. Nice write up. 

 

 Thanks. 1992 and 1993's -SOI strings tell me to not bet the ranch on Nino based on the current 32 day string and to leave open the chance for a high end neutral positive. However, the overall impression I get from this SOI data is that a weak Nino is likely. I'm now going from high end neutral positive through low end moderate to cover the vast majority of possibilities with weak Nino dominating in the middle.

[GaWx]

What does the Euro show going forward?

 

 

Friv,

 Nothing too exciting. After tomorrow's # being pretty close to the -1 to +3 range, today's 0Z Euro is suggesting a small positive is most likely for 9/6. Then it suggests mainly small -SOI's for most, if not all of, 9/7-13 followed by perhaps a rise to a small +SOI around 9/14.