2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[griteater]

TAO/TRITON shows cooling in Nino 3.4 over the past couple of weeks

 

 

On the flip side...the CFS has notable westerly anomalies in the near term with an active MJO pulse (solid red lines = active MJO)...but is it right?

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Those are pretty stout that would definitely replenish some of the OHC.

 

 

It appears to be real so far.  But like you said it is going to end up that strong and that far East over the next few weeks.

 

It's starting to look like a warm neutral to weak nino state the rest of the year but it's to early to say for sure.

 

[thewxmann]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/17/el_ni_o_2014_forecast_it_s_now_looking_weaker_but_that_s_not_all_good_news.html

 

Interesting.

 

It is no secret that here in CA we need the Nino and badly with our extreme drought conditions.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

If the Nino is anything like 2004, I think California will be in good shape for the next several months. 

[michsnowfreak]

If this map's combo of borderline weak/moderate Niño and +PDO were to verify and continue into winter along with a predominant -NAO, look out for a good shot at quite a cold winter in much of the E US.

bring it on!

[Kory]

Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 all cooled this past week.  3.4 is now down to +0.2 degrees C.  Nino 1+2 are up just slightly to +1.5 degrees C.  

 

 

 

 

The ocean heat anomalies are now negative.  

 

[thewxmann]

If the Nino is anything like 2004, I think California will be in good shape for the next several months. 

 

2004 had not as much to do with the Nino as it had to do with the MJO. It's hard to fathom such luck happening again.

[WEATHER53]

What Ga Wx said about this winter is starting off as my thoughts also.

[Kory]

The MJO that was forecasted to maybe help change the Walker Cell into an El Nino has not come to fruition.  It looks to remain rather disorganized the next couple weeks.  We may have to wait another few weeks before things start clicking.  

[GaWx]

 The volatility showing up on the Levi Cowan satellite based Nino 3.4 SST anomaly graph continues as it has dropped all of the way down to -0.217 as of 6Z today:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Kory]

I was reading about El Nino amplitude apparently varies in intensity.  We haven't had a El Nino since 09-10 and a La Nina since 10-11.  Do y'all think the ENSO is recycling and we're going to continue neutral for a while?     

[GaWx]

SOI projections per my interpretation of 0Z 7/23 Euro:

Increased volatility again with no clearcut trend:

7/24: 0 to +5
Drops to -teens 7/27.
Rises to +20's 7/29-30
Drops to -teens 8/2

 

 Based on this, July as a whole would end up near the -1 to -2 range. So, July looks to be another pretty neutral month and it gives no indication of an oncoming El Nino as of yet. Looking ahead further through ~8/8 per the 0Z 7/23 Euro ensemble mean, there still is no indication of anything too solidly and consistently negative as of then.

[GaWx]

 I understand the general idea of not getting caught up with a single index, but all 39 Ninos since the late 1800's did, indeed, have at least one month that was sub -8 from the preceding June though met. winter. I can also tell you from looking at the SOI monthly history that there have actually been at least two sub -8 calendar months for almost all of the 39 El Ninos (i.e., very few exceptions, even for weak Ninos) from the preceding June through the following met. winter. Granted, these two sub -8 months in some cases didn't start til met. fall (like 2009-10, 1986-7, 1969-70, 1939-40, 1913-4, and 1900-1; the last 4 of these 6 were weak Ninos) or in one case not til winter (1958-9, a weak Nino). There were only two that had only one sub -8 month from the preceding June, onward (both of these sub -8's were in winter): 1968-9 (borderline weak to moderate) and 1930-1 (which was actually strong). As mentioned, NONE didn't have at least one sub -8 month from the preceding June through met. winter.

 So, out of 39 Ninos since the last 1800's, all 39 (100%) had at least one sub -8 month from June through met. winter, 37 (95%) had two sub -8 months from June through met. winter, 36 (92%) had that first June or later sub -8 by met. fall, and 30 (77%) had that first June or later sub -8 in met. summer. So, only 3 of the 39 Ninos (8%) had to wait til winter for the first June or later sub -8.

 

****Edit:  What about non-Ninos? I count 99 non-Nino fall/winters of the 138 from 1876-7 through 2013-4. Of those 99, only 19 (19%) had two or more months that were sub -8 from June through met. winter. Compare that 19% with 95% for Ninos. So, "false positives" do occur. However, their frequency is only 1/5 vs. that for actual Ninos.

 

 

 Monthly SOI's since 1876:

 

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

[Ground Scouring]

Isn't there a Brazilian model that's had a reliable record forecasting ENSO several months in advance? The model also forecasts MSLP two to four months in advance. Can anyone find the link?

[Sunny and Warm]

Isn't there a Brazilian model that's had a reliable record forecasting ENSO several months in advance? The model also forecasts MSLP two to four months in advance. Can anyone find the link?

I think this is the one:

 

http://clima1.cptec.inpe.br/gpc/pt

[GaWx]

Bluewave,
The Cowan satellite based graph has been showing negative recently in 3.4, which is consistent with the satellite photo you just posted. However, the TAO buoy based map suggests about +0.3 C (though there are still some missing buoys). NOAA has been going much closer to TAO than these more volatile satellite based maps. I'm guessing they'll stay positive and probably close to the +0.2 to +0.3 C range. Also, keep in mind that this satellite pic is a recent snapshot whereas the Monday release is based on the whole calendar week averaged out, which would incorporate a warmer earlier week per Cowan. Actually, even Cowan looks to average near +0.1 C for the calendar week.

[RaleighWx]

I calculate the ENSO region using the RTG_SST data, and region 3.4 has actually been negative the last several days. I have to think the CPC weekly number will likely be near 0.

[Kory]

If you look at the warmer anomalies just west of the dateline along the equator, I think we're beginning to see the new downwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave. 

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

If you look at the warmer anomalies just west of the dateline along the equator, I think we're beginning to see the new downwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave. 

 

 

 

So basically the warmer SSTs will propagate eastward in time? 

[StudentOfClimatology]

We'll need the trade winds to subside for that to occur in a substantial manner:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[GaWx]

SOI projections per my interpretation of 0Z 7/23 Euro:

Increased volatility again with no clearcut trend:

7/24: 0 to +5

Drops to -teens 7/27.

Rises to +20's 7/29-30

Drops to -teens 8/2

Based on this, July as a whole would end up near the -1 to -2 range. So, July looks to be another pretty neutral month and it gives no indication of an oncoming El Nino as of yet. Looking ahead further through ~8/8 per the 0Z 7/23 Euro ensemble mean, there still is no indication of anything too solidly and consistently negative as of then.

Though I correctly had the SOI falling from 7/24 through 7/27, it already looks like my interpretation of the 0z 7/23 Euro is verifying a good bit too positive. However, it is rising now as expected though +20's for 7/29-30 look too high right now per the 0z 7/28 Euro. So, this means my prediction of -1 to -2 for July now looks to be not negative enough. Also, the 0z 7/28 Euro looks far different from the 0z 7/23 Euro in that it now looks like the SOI will likely be pretty solidly positive on 8/2 (+teensish as opposed to -teens) with some quite high pressures in Tahiti though it looks to drop soon after that. So, volatility remains in the forecast. The Euro, after being so consistent over the prior couple of months, has been a bit less reliable in recent days.

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 down to -0.1.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

23JUL2014 1.6 0.5-0.1  0.2

This weekly 3.4 of -0.1 is quite surprising to me. I had predicted close to the +0.2 to +0.3 range based on TAO buoys. Also, even the Cowan satellite based graph suggested a calendar week average that was still up near +0.1 despite its drop to near -0.3 late last week. Interesting!

[Sunny and Warm]

Negative values in July are an awful way to conduct a Nino.  What is everyone's thoughts are where this potential Nino ends up strength-wise, and what effect it may have on CONUS winter?  To me, I think it ends up around 1.0-1.2 in November in 3.4, but will need a kelvin wave soon to get there. 

[GaWx]

Negative values in July are an awful way to conduct a Nino. What is everyone's thoughts are where this potential Nino ends up strength-wise, and what effect it may have on CONUS winter? To me, I think it ends up around 1.0-1.2 in November in 3.4, but will need a kelvin wave soon to get there.

Though it is still early and the CFS projections have been jumping around a good bit, I'm now leaning more and more to the weak Niño side ONIwise this fall/winter (3.4 peaking no more than +1.0). If this happens along with a +PDO, the door is open to the very realistic possibility for quite a cold winter in the E US (especially Mid Atlantic and SE US) if the winter NAO were to average negative as the combo of weak Niño, +PDO, and -NAO is hard to beat as far as the best chance for a solidly cold winter there based on history.

[chubbs]

Though it is still early and the CFS projections have been jumping around a good bit, I'm now leaning more and more to the weak Niño side ONIwise this fall/winter (3.4 peaking no more than +1.0). If this happens along with a +PDO, the door is open to the very realistic possibility for quite a cold winter in the E US (especially Mid Atlantic and SE US) if the winter NAO were to average negative as the combo of weak Niño, +PDO, and -NAO is hard to beat as far as the best chance for a solidly cold winter there based on history.

 

fwiw CFS is showing a Pacific pattern for this winter similar to 2002/3 with a central/west-based el-nino and warm water along Alaska coast.  

[icebreaker5221]

We're seeing a new westerly wind burst developing, strongest since April.  Should help to get El Nino back on track.  Also note that 90-day SOI finally went negative 3 days ago.

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Looks fairly brief, however:

[icebreaker5221]

Looks fairly brief, however:

 

That forecast is based upon GFS (also uses much less smoothing / filtering, hence the different appearance), which IMO is not handling the current state of the current MJO or the West Pac monsoon trough realistically at all. 

 

[griteater]

This version from Kyle MacRitchie has been bull-ish with an active MJO for a while now (based off the CFS)

 

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

That forecast is based upon GFS (also uses much less smoothing / filtering, hence the different appearance), which IMO is not handling the current state of the current MJO or the West Pac monsoon trough realistically at all.

gfs.gif

Thanks for the heads up.

I guess we'll see what ends up happening...I think what recently went through the IO domain was a CCKW, no? The SSTA response was impressive though, more akin to true MJO.