Sunny and Warm Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Seems about 2/3rds of the individual members of the CFSv2 model are predicting another kelvin wave, and a 1/3rd are not. How do the models predict kelvin waves, and how successful are they at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Oddly enough, this mid summer drop in 3.4 was predicted by the CFSv2 as early as April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The MJO looks like it might enter the Western Pacific, a more favorable spot for generating some downwelling and EKW. Of course, the ECMM is stronger than the GFS with the MJO phase (as it has been for a while). We'll need a stronger MJO to switch the easterly trades to some WWB. From what I gather, the ECMM is better at forecasting the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 In this NOAA ENSO Blog post, they talk about the atmospheric response with ENSO and mention the EQSOI. "As of the end of June, both the SOI and the EQSOI are at +0.2 (they have trended downward over the past few months), and the wind patterns are roughly average over the tropical Pacific, with some slight weakening of the trade winds toward the end of the month. There is increased convection in the central Pacific, but also some over Indonesia… all of which says we’re still waiting for the atmosphere to get dressed in its El Niño clothes and come out to play." You can get the EQSOI data here. Graph below is a 3-month running mean. You can see how the various Ninos registered with the 2 indexes (97-98-strong, 02-03-mod, 04-05-weak, 06-07-weak/mod, 09-10-mod/strong). Limited data set in this particular graph, but you could make the argument that the EQSOI is the better indicator of Nino strength compared to the SOI (I didn't compare the Ninas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 MCVs north of 25N that develop into TCs are more indicative of bad upper level conditions in the MDR, with much better conditions in the subtropics. A weak or neutral warm event would favor areas in the N GoM, E FL and probably the Carolinas...a west displaced Azores high (Bermuda high) would really up the chances of a significant event for E FL. How would an east-based (as opposed to a central or west-based) weak Niño affect the Azores-Bermuda High's orientation and location? From what I've seen the east-based events tend to favor more recurves/fish (meaning a weaker, more Azores-centered high as in 2006) while the central and west-based events are more FL/Gulf centric (meaning a Bermuda-cented high as in 2004). Everything at this point favors an east-based event in time for ASO, so I wouldn't get so excited about the prospects for more U.S. activity. There is a good chance that Arthur will remain the sole U.S. hurricane impact in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 How would an east-based (as opposed to a central or west-based) weak Niño affect the Azores-Bermuda High's orientation and location? From what I've seen the east-based events tend to favor more recurves/fish (meaning a weaker, more Azores-centered high as in 2006) while the central and west-based events are more FL/Gulf centric (meaning a Bermuda-cented high as in 2004). Everything at this point favors an east-based event in time for ASO, so I wouldn't get so excited about the prospects for more U.S. activity. There is a good chance that Arthur will remain the sole U.S. hurricane impact in 2014. More than look into east or west based Niños, I would look into the NAO. A -NAO would directly help displace the Azores high west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 CFSv2 shows us finally hitting rock bottom with the cooling of Nino 3.4. Perhaps it thinks we're going to see some WWB with the MJO moving east. It also shows significant cooling of Nino 1+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 So now the forecast is morphing into a west based Nino eventually? Not surprised about region 1-2. Recent reports were that the anchovies are back off Peru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 It's interesting that the CFS and ECMWF were among the dynamical models that had the worst warm bias with Their July Forecasts at 1.1from three months ago. The new forecast looks to keep 3.4 below 0.5 through the month. bluewave (or anyone) - can you post the link to the IRI plumes and where they list each numerical ENSO model forecast (like you posted above)? I can't find it since they re-configured their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 bluewave (or anyone) - can you post the link to the IRI plumes and where they list each numerical ENSO model forecast (like you posted above)? I can't find it since they re-configured their website. Here's the archive of all the previous forecasts: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/ http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Here's the archive of all the previous forecasts: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/ http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table Thanks, the second link is what I was looking for. Taking the average of all of their listed ENSO models (Dynamical + Statistical) yields a weak Nino with a peak of +0.9 in Oct-Jan. The verification plumes over the past year suggest that taking the average of all models is better than the average of the dynamical models or statistical models alone. They use to have verification plumes for each individual model which I don't see on their site now, but the ESSIC ICM model is one that seemed to perform well over the last few years. It's current forecast also shows a weak Nino with a +0.9 peak in NDJ. Time will tell...we certainly don't have anything indicating warming in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The CFS is indicating an El Nino Madoki which could be worrying for the California drought and might cause more tropical system and 2004 is starting to show up as an analog year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The CFS is indicating an El Nino Madoki which could be worrying for the California drought and might cause more tropical system and 2004 is starting to show up as an analog year 2004 saw a lot of rains in California that winter. Given the warm 1+2 values we've seen for quite some time, I don't thin we'll see a Modoki at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The trade winds refuse to relent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Given the warm 1+2 values we've seen for quite some time, I don't thin we'll see a Modoki at least for now. It hasn't been that long. About three months and is in the process of collapsing. Don't believe a Modoki is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The CFS is indicating a Niño Modoki, which could be worrying for the California drought and might cause more tropical systems. 2004 is starting to show up as an analog year It's been indicating a Modoki for a few months now. It also forecasted the Niño to be central or west based by now, which hasn't happened. Again, as others have wisely mentioned, I would not focus on one model alone when attempting to forecast ENSO. And on what basis is 2004 an analog year, other than a hypothetical scenario thrown out to appease U.S. tropical-cyclone lovers (of which, admittedly, I am one, of course)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 It hasn't been that long. About three months and is in the process of collapsing. Don't believe a Modoki is off the table. Nino 1+2 fluctuates a lot. Given the fact that most of the warm waters are fairly east, I don't think we'll get one, at least during next month or so. CFS has been predicting a Modoki for quite some time. With that said, it correctly predicted the recent cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Since we've entered the -PDO phase around 2000, we've only had 1 traditional Nino versus 3 Modoki Ninos. So the odds are for a Modoki, but we shall see as this transpires the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 we might not see an official el nino develop until the tri monthly oni period of ASO...1976, 1977, 1994 and 2006 developed in that time frame...MEI is on par with 2002...both mei and oni went down or leveled off recently...time will tell if the oni gets to 1.0 or higher and the mei goes above 1.000...there is still time for that to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Per the TAO buoy graphic, it looks like the eastern part of 3.4 has finally been warming for the last few days. Perhaps this is a sign of at least a little rewarming. Also, this would be consistent with a typical lagged warming response to the predominant -SOI of late June into the first few days of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Verification of 6/25 Euro, which I used for the predictions stated above: the pattern was hit pretty well, but 6/26-7/3 were even more negative than progged overall. June as a whole ended at ~-1 instead of 0. Looking ahead as per the 0Z 7/3/ Euro: Rising to -5 to +5 range 7/4 followed by rise to the ~+teens 7/6-7. After that, it should fall through 7/13, when it could bottom in the -30's. I had thought that 7/1-10 would average positive. However, it now looks like it will average ~-2 to -3. As of 7/13, it appears now that both the MTD and the 30 day will be in the general vicinity of -6 to -8. The Euro ensemble suggests that the SOI will mainly rise 7/14-18. However, it is hard to tell if it would rise out of the negatives during that period on any of those days. So, it looks like 7/1-18 will easily average negative..perhaps still down at ~-5. So, bottom line from my perspective per the Euro has changed: despite the prog of positives 7/5-8, it looks like we are and we'll continue to be into a period of negatives dominating to some extent as opposed to the prior back and forth we had through 6/21. Based on the Euro, it now looks to me that July has a very good shot at being the most -SOI month since March, 2014. Will July (as well as what we just had in late June) be enough to finally resume the trek toward El Nino? We'll see. Being that OHC has risen so much recently (to near neutral), that remains to be seen. Looking at the above 0Z 7/3 Euro predictions, it did well, especially considering the volatility. It still looks like 7/1-18 will be near -5. Looking ahead per the 0Z 7/15 Euro: 7/16: +5 to +15 7/17: -5 to +5 7/18-21:rising to mainly in the +3 to +13 range with small peak 7/19-20. 7/22-4: falling slowly to mainly in the -8 to +2 range with lowest 7/23 7/25: rising to the -1 to +9 range In summary, much less volatility than recently and averaging slightly positive over the next ten days. 7/1-25 should be near -2 and the 30 day then should be near -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Biggest May to June PDO drop since 1996. Screen shot 2014-07-16 at 6.54.02 AM.png Not surprising considering the SST near the coast of North America have waned. Plus, there was an anomalous NW wind along the West Coast of America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Does anyone know if the Nino will survive and make it to El Nino Modoki status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Does anyone know if the Nino will survive and make it to El Nino Modoki status? Based on how things have changed so much over the last few months, I'd say that the answers to your questions are No, no one knows for sure. My opinion now is that a Nino is slightly favored, but neutral is a distinct possibility...and I think it's too early to have a feel for the base of the Nino, even if we knew one was going to occur for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Does anyone know if the Nino will survive and make it to El Nino Modoki status? As far as Modoki, some ENSO models want to transition it to a central based Nino. It's still fairly east based currently. In my opinion, I do believe this Nino will come through. It will not be nearly as strong as some earlier predictions. Just remember, the weak 06-07 Nino, didn't reach El Nino threshold until the trimonthly period of ASO. It was fairly weak during the summer months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Warm subsurface anomalies are growing in the central Pacific. Gotta watch and see if they push east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/07/17/el_ni_o_2014_forecast_it_s_now_looking_weaker_but_that_s_not_all_good_news.html Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The July ECMWF plumes show central-based Niño conditions by ASO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The July ECMWF plumes show central-based Niño conditions by ASO. If this map's combo of borderline weak/moderate Niño and +PDO were to verify and continue into winter along with a predominant -NAO, look out for a good shot at quite a cold winter in much of the E US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The trade winds the last few days have been the strongest of the last 3 months near the Dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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