2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Kory]

Cowan satellite based data: 3.4 down to only +0.299 as of 0z 7/2 after being above +1.000 on 6/26. However, it appears that a bottom may be approaching here in the high +2's, which is the coolest since mid-April! Once it bottoms, let's see if there is at least a deadcat bounce.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Something seems faulty with those graphs...I'd stick with the weekly CPC updates.  

[Kory]

Looks like the plummet in ocean heat anomalies has leveled off.  Perhaps the weak westerlies that have kicked in have provided enough to send in some reinforcement to the waning EKW.  

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Looks like the plummet in ocean heat anomalies has leveled off. Perhaps the weak westerlies that have kicked in have provided enough to send in some reinforcement to the waning EKW.

Looks like another surge of easterlies is forecasted. If the trades continue, and we do not see any more WWB activity, this Niño could fail in a similar manner to the 2012-13 attempt..

The trades have been relentless:

[Kory]

Looks like another surge of easterlies is forecasted. If the trades continue, and we do not see any more WWB activity, this Niño could fail in a similar manner to the 2012-13 attempt..

The trades have been relentless:

So if this El Nino does not come to fruition (this is strictly hypothetical), do you think we'll have ENSO neutral conditions hang around a while before another shot at an El Nino?  Or do you think we'll see a La Nina again?  Seems like we've been hanging around neutral ENSO conditions for a while now.  

 

I know the pattern favors a La Nina, since we're in a -PDO stage right now (I think the rise to +PDO conditions earlier this year is temporary).  

[GaWx]

koryp,

 Welcome to the discussion! I agree with you about negatives dominating through the end of the month (although it should at least approach zero 6/29-30 before quickly dropping back). We should get some -20's into the mix, possibly including the next two days and ~7/1. The negatives should dominate through 7/3. However, it still looks like there will be a decided rise to positives and it looks to make it at least to the +10's 7/5-6 with a potential peak in the +20's or so around 7/9. It still looks like 7/1-10 will average positive despite the ~-20's on 7/1. Yesterday, I had projected near +1 for the final June monthly SOI. However, I'm now going with near 0 for June as a whole. Regardless, the bottom line is that there still is no longlasting solidly negative SOI on the horizon per the Euro at least. Instead, there looks to be a pretty even mix between negatives and positive between now and 7/10.

 

 

Verification of 6/25 Euro, which I used for the predictions stated above: the pattern was hit pretty well, but 6/26-7/3 were even more negative than progged overall. June as a whole ended at ~-1 instead of 0.

 

 Looking ahead as per the 0Z 7/3/ Euro: Rising to -5 to +5 range 7/4 followed by rise to the ~+teens 7/6-7. After that, it should fall through 7/13, when it could bottom in the -30's. I had thought that 7/1-10 would average positive. However, it now looks like it will average ~-2 to -3. As of 7/13, it appears now that both the MTD and the 30 day will be in the general vicinity of -6 to -8. The Euro ensemble suggests that the SOI will mainly rise 7/14-18. However, it is hard to tell if it would rise out of the negatives during that period on any of those days. So, it looks like 7/1-18 will easily average negative..perhaps still down at ~-5.

 

 So, bottom line from my perspective per the Euro has changed: despite the prog of positives 7/5-8, it looks like we are and we'll continue to be into a period of negatives dominating to some extent as opposed to the prior back and forth we had through 6/21. Based on the Euro, it now looks to me that July has a very good shot at being the most -SOI month since March, 2014. Will July (as well as what we just had in late June) be enough to finally resume the trek toward El Nino? We'll see. Being that OHC has risen so much recently (to near neutral), that remains to be seen.

[JBG]

I do not think you can take moderate off the table...it is still only July 1st. The upper 100m still has some good warm anomalies leftover from the big kelvin wave earlier this season. That still leaves at least some potential if we resume some WWBs down the road, but the overall look of the ENSO event has definitely begun to unravel over the past 30-50 days.

Well in August 2009 there were threads entitled "La Niño" or "El Niña," I forget which.  We did wind up with an El Niño but quite west-based. It was a great winter, especially the "snowicane."  It didn't last.

[GaWx]

Cowan satellite based data: 3.4 down to only +0.299 as of 0z 7/2 after being above +1.000 on 6/26. However, it appears that a bottom may be approaching here in the high +0.2's, which is the coolest since mid-April! Once it bottoms, let's see if there is at least a deadcat bounce.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

Cowan's graph is back down to 0.364. Compare this to the high hit in late June of ~+1.050. The lowest it got last week before the deadcat bounce was +0.280 fwiw. The deadcat bounce brought it back to +0.541 before it turned back down. After being quite stable for 3+ months, it has been quite unstable for the last 2+ weeks.

 

 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[The_Global_Warmer]

Cowan's graph is back down to 0.364. Compare this to the high hit in late June of ~+1.050. The lowest it got last week before the deadcat bounce was +0.280 fwiw. The deadcat bounce brought it back to +0.541 before it turned back down. After being quite stable for 3+ months, it has been quite unstable for the last 2+ weeks.

 

 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

How are the latest euro SOI numbers looking?

[Jonger]

There might be no warm anomaly left in another month at this rate, its just a tiny thing now.

 

[hurricaneman]

There might be no warm anomaly left in another month at this rate, its just a tiny thing now.

 

 

Based on this I'm starting to seriously doubt that El Nino goes beyond a weak one and that may be pushing it

[AlaskaETC]

Appears the ENSO conditions are taking a serious beating and the ground made earlier in the year for a strong Nino is being take back.

[wxmx]

There's not going to be a strong Niño. Strongish easterlies around the dateline have taken it's toll for regions 3.4 and 4.  In the short range it appears that easterlies will rule the field. In the medium and long range there's little indication of a warm ENSO event...Wow, this may become the mother of all Niño fails...my revised assessment is for a weak Niño at it's peak.

[Eyewall2005]

So...... what happens to cane season all these seasonal outlooks calling for moderate to strong El Niño like CSU etc.. should be interesting come mid aug when real season starts

[Srain]

There's not going to be a strong Niño. Strongish easterlies around the dateline have taken it's toll for regions 3.4 and 4.  In the short range it appears that easterlies will rule the field. In the medium and long range there's little indication of a warm ENSO event...Wow, this may become the mother of all Niño fails...my revised assessment is for a weak Niño at it's peak.

The weaker trend may suggest conditions across the Western Caribbean as well as the Gulf could offer a surprise or two as we head into late July, August and early September. A couple of MCV events timed just right could prove interesting as Arthur just showed us.

[ORH_wxman]

There's not going to be a strong Niño. Strongish easterlies around the dateline have taken it's toll for regions 3.4 and 4.  In the short range it appears that easterlies will rule the field. In the medium and long range there's little indication of a warm ENSO event...Wow, this may become the mother of all Niño fails...my revised assessment is for a weak Niño at it's peak.

 

 

The lack of atmospheric response to the kelvin wave back in spring is pretty glaring.

 

The last month or 90 days has looked more like a La Nina on the u anomaly charts. Pretty amazing actually.

[wxmx]

The weaker trend may suggest conditions across the Western Caribbean as well as the Gulf could offer a surprise or two as we head into late July, August and early September. A couple of MCV events timed just right could prove interesting as Arthur just showed us.

MCVs north of 25N that develop into TCs are more indicative of bad upper level conditions in the MDR, with much better conditions in the subtropics. A weak or neutral warm event would favor areas in the N GoM, E FL and probably the Carolinas...a west displaced Azores high (Bermuda high) would really up the chances of a significant event for E FL.

[HailMan06]

Bad news for California. The one thing the people there want to see is an above average rainfall season, which they may not get.

[GaWx]

There's not going to be a strong Niño. Strongish easterlies around the dateline have taken it's toll for regions 3.4 and 4.  In the short range it appears that easterlies will rule the field. In the medium and long range there's little indication of a warm ENSO event...Wow, this may become the mother of all Niño fails...my revised assessment is for a weak Niño at it's peak.

 

 Whereas it wouldn't come close to guaranteeing it, a weak El Nino would raise the chances for a cold 2014-5 winter over much of the E US and especially the SE US to quite a bit above the normal chance based on history. If a weak Nino peak were to verify along with a predominant -NAO and the continuation of the +PDO that we now have, this winter would likely be quite the doozy for much of the E US.

 

Cowan graph is now down to only +0.169, the lowest in over three months!

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Kory]

^^^ The monthly PDO reading is back to negative.

[GaWx]

^^^ The monthly PDO reading is back to negative.

 

Yep, I see this one just turned barely negative for June: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

 

However, this one runs higher and I bet it will still be positive for June.: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

Regardless, it will interesting to see if we get a +PDO overall for next winter.

[Kory]

Yep, I see this one just turned barely negative for June: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

However, this one runs higher and I bet it will still be positive for June.: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Regardless, it will interesting to see if we get a +PDO overall for next winter.

I don't think we'll see a overall +PDO for long term. That little positive uptick was a result of the atmosphere trying to get an El Nino going...you can see the same thing happened in previous El Ninos during this mainly -PDO regime.

[roardog]

Wow at how many members of the Poama showing 3.4 going to neutral negative. If that were to happen this non Nino would be the biggest bust ever. Lol

[griteater]

One thing I can say I've learned is that it is very difficult to predict the specifics associated with ENSO.  

 

 

The July 8th MEI update is in and here are some snippets...

 

"The updated (May-June) MEI has remained stable, now at +0.88. Its current ranking has dropped back 8 ranks to the 15th highest value for this time of year, back into weak El Niño territory (Apr-May ranking was 7th highest - moderate El Nino). The long anticipated emeregence of El Niño conditions in 2014 is clearly under way, leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 10 nearest-ranked May-June values, eight had come up to this level over the previous three months. In turn, six of these eight cases (1957, '65, '94, '02, '06, and '09) kept El Niño conditions going through the remainder of the year (75%), but only the first two reached 'strong' El Niño ranks (25%). 

 

Similar to last month, positive SST anomalies cover much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. However, the central Pacific anomalies have weakened, while the eastern Pacific anomalies continue at well above +1C. Negative SST anomalies are still found near 20S off the coast of South America. 

 

With the overall MEI indicating emergent El Niño conditions, one can find quite a few key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). All of these are flagging El Niño conditions.

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate enhanced southerlies (V) northeast of Australia, high sea surface (S) and air (A) temperatures, as well as enhanced cloudiness © in the eastern equatorial Pacific basin. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) flag easterly wind anomalies (U) over Indonesia and off the Colombian coast. Again, all of these anomalies are consistent with El Niño. Only the sea level pressure field (P) is short of any significant anomaly in this update.

 

El Niño came and went during the summer of 2012, not unlike 1953. I do not believe that this year's version will be quite as short-lived, not least because the PDO is strongly positive, while it was quite negative back in 2012. Compared to earlier this year, the odds for a strong event have dwindled, with a moderate event being the most likely outcome for now." 

 

 

It's interesting that he makes note of the strongly positive PDO.  As noted in posts above, the NOAA PDO number dropped to -0.11 for June, but the SST anomaly pattern in the north Pacific remains more +PDO like than -PDO.

[Yellow Evan]

This is as big of a bust as 2013 AHS.

 

CFS suggest more weakening followed by a rebound.

[GaWx]

For the first time since it has been followed here, the Cowan CDAS satellite based SST graph for 3.4 actually just dropped to a negative anomaly (-0.009) after having been just over +1.00 just two weeks ago:

[Sunny and Warm]

Has region 3.4 ever been negative during July during a Nino event?  If so, what was the eventual outcome strength-wise of the event in 3.4 and the rest of the basin?

[GaWx]

Has region 3.4 ever been negative during July during a Nino event?  If so, what was the eventual outcome strength-wise of the event in 3.4 and the rest of the basin?

 

1) Negative:

July was slightly negative in 1911 per the 3.4 link below and that turned into El Nino by that fall/winter. However, SST anomalies were then warming each month through the summer unlike the current pause:

 

 http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/

 

2) Only slightly positive (how July, 2014, may very well verify) before :

 

a. 1913 preceding a weakish Nino though was warming: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/

b. 1986 preceding a moderate Nino though was warming:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

c.  2006 preceding a moderate Nino & was slightly cooler than June: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

[Sunny and Warm]

1) Negative:

July was slightly negative in 1911 per the 3.4 link below and that turned into El Nino by that fall/winter. However, SST anomalies were then warming each month through the summer unlike the current pause:

 

 http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/

 

2) Only slightly positive (how July, 2014, may very well verify) before :

 

a. 1913 preceding a weakish Nino though was warming: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/

b. 1986 preceding a moderate Nino though was warming:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

c.  2006 preceding a moderate Nino & was slightly cooler than June: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

Thank you for the information and links!

 

How readily can we trust the data from 1911 and 1913?  Regardless, 2014 is acting most similarly to 2006, albeit the sample size is poor.

 

Edit to add that I recall 1911 and 1913 were at the beginning of a new -PDO cycle as well.  Seems the PDO signal adds or subtracts strength to Ninos and Ninas.  We're continuing to learn. 

[GaWx]

Thank you for the information and links!

 

How readily can we trust the data from 1911 and 1913?  Regardless, 2014 is acting most similarly to 2006, albeit the sample size is poor.

 

Edit to add that I recall 1911 and 1913 were at the beginning of a new -PDO cycle as well.  Seems the PDO signal adds or subtracts strength to Ninos and Ninas.  We're continuing to learn. 

 

You're welcome. I think it is likely in the ballpark because it jibes pretty well with JMA SST data as well as SOI monthlies from then.

[Mike.Ventrice]

The JMA is the latest model to really back off on El Nino development from just last month.

 

June 10th Nino 3.4 forecast +1.3

 

c_ens_gr.png

 

July 10th Nino 3.4 forecast  +0.76

 

B.png

 

This model has been low on ENSO all along. Again it's early to know whether it is correct but we are moving into an intraseasonal state in the eastern Pacific Ocean that favors for upwelling in response to an "upwelling" oceanic Kelvin wave passage. When a seasonal model is initialized with these conditions, it will automatically reduce the 3.4 expression in it's forecast likely due to not well representing the variability that is occuring within the ocean. I know there is work currently being done by Dr. Paul Roundy on this topic.

 

 

 

Note that once the intraseasonal state passes, it will likely revert to the base El Nino state. We could even see another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave develop, and favor for warmer than what has already been observed temperatures in the East Pacific later this Fall. This is what is suggested by both the CFSv2 and European seasonal models. We shall see of course.