GaWx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 While somewhat similar to the 2012 Nino fiasco, these numbers have been holding steady for some time. In 2012, the numbers shot up and then dropped just as quick. This warming is probably legit as we're seeing some of the warmest subsurface temps start to surface from the Kelvin Wave. I think we've got about another week of warming before cooler, albeit still positive anomalies, start to surface. Agreed about it holding up in 3.4 unlike in 2012. (I edited my prior post just before you posted this.) So, I agree it may be legit this time. I wonder what NOAA is thinking with TAO so much cooler. Granted, many of the buoys are apparently out right now. But still, the buoys that are reporting appear to be cooler than +1.0 by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Bluewave et al, Per Mr. Cowan's 6z update for today (+0.924) as well as the last few updates overall, there has been a hint of a trend change from the steady prior six days or so to a drop. Let's see if this drop continues. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 What are y'alls thoughts on the MJO forecasts? The GFS has it moving east of the International Date Line but never really strengthens it enough to where it affects the Walker Circulation. The European model has it strengthening but it moves it back to the west in the next couple of weeks. It doesn't really sent it eastward enough to affect the Walker Cell. So, if it does come east strong enough, do y'all think it'll be too late to make a difference? Seems like the clock is ticking with this El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 What are y'alls thoughts on the MJO forecasts? The GFS has it moving east of the International Date Line but never really strengthens it enough to where it affects the Walker Circulation. The European model has it strengthening but it moves it back to the west in the next couple of weeks. It doesn't really sent it eastward enough to affect the Walker Cell. So, if it does come east strong enough, do y'all think it'll be too late to make a difference? Seems like the clock is ticking with this El Nino. 1) I've found that the Euro ensemble tends to be more accurate than the GFS ensemble regarding MJO forecasts. 2) I don't think it is too late at all to make a diff. I think we still have several months to play with regarding that sort of thing since we're only looking ahead to early July. Also, look at how much the CFS has been changing from day to day! Two weeks or so ago, it was showing a high end weak El Nino peak. Now it is almost to low end strong. However, the odds of a superstrong Nino have clearly gone way down vs. how it looked a few months back imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Seems like the clock is ticking with this El Nino. What makes you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 I'm not saying this El Nino is dead. I'm just saying the time is ticking on how strong it gets. The longer it takes to get a legit Kelvin wave the more the subsurface temps are cooling. The westerly anomalies are helping a little right now to keep them from surfacing but it won't be enough if we don't get another EKW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 1) I've found that the Euro ensemble tends to be more accurate than the GFS ensemble regarding MJO forecasts. 2) I don't think it is too late at all to make a diff. I think we still have several months to play with regarding that sort of thing since we're only looking ahead to early July. Also, look at how much the CFS has been changing from day to day! Two weeks or so ago, it was showing a high end weak El Nino peak. Now it is almost to low end strong. However, the odds of a superstrong Nino have clearly gone way down vs. how it looked a few months back imo. what's your take on AAM? I noticed it has recently gone positive which is typically El Niño-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 I think this is more applicable for hovmollers that include the 15s-5s latitude. The Chilean current right now is displaced south by nearly 20 degrees latitude from its normal position. This is partly due to the highly positive SAM state in addition to perhaps some influence from the decadal phase of the PDO otherwise known as the IPO. This feature hasn't really been successful in producing easterly wind anomalies along the equator, but instead the weak easterlies are displaced south. Features to the west driven by the AAO state and possibly the atlantic circumpolar wave or AGW are really preventing westerly wind anomalies west of the dateline. compday.BCBz68kIJm.gif What does this Imply having the Chili current that abnormally South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I am talking about the average monthly temperatures since weekly temps can be noisy. Yeah, I realize you were referring to the CFS monthlies since it doesn't predict weeklies. I've recently been focusing more on weeklies because of the attention/posts that started to be generated by others due to the sharp/sudden 0.5ish warming in 3.4 per satellite based data. I was initially playing the role of skeptic about this sudden warming, especially since buoys have been so much cooler. Similar attention was generated back in Nov. of 2012 and that entire supposed warming turned out to be a false warming of sorts. This time has been a bit different as the warming was not as strong and it held on longer. However, it has now been cooling since Thu. So, we'll see whether it cools back most of the 0.5. Also, the TAO buoys have been so much cooler than the satellite based SST's, similar to 2012 though many buoys are out. Interesting times in 3.4 and the jury is still out regarding if this is a sig. turning point toward warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 what's your take on AAM? I noticed it has recently gone positive which is typically El Niño-ish. I really can't answer this as I don't typically follow it that much. Bluewave, do you have an opinion on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I'm estimating that this past calendar week averaged near +0.9 per the Cowan graphs/satellite. However, the TAO bouys that are still in service (five day average) are suggesting that 3.4 is still only ~+0.5. Let's see what NOAA does Monday. Cowan 3.4 graph based on satellite (now back down to 0.755, which is down 0.3 in 3 days from last week's peak and is halfway down to the 0.5ish level it was at before the sudden and sharp rise that got many excited): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like the MJO may start to affect the Walker Cell in the Eastern Pacific within the next few weeks. The European forecast has the MJO strengthening and moving westward and that the active phase will start to develop within the next week. This might be the kick start to the El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I'm estimating that this past calendar week averaged near +0.9 per the Cowan graphs/satellite. However, the TAO bouys that are still in service (five day average) are suggesting that 3.4 is still only ~+0.5. Let's see what NOAA does Monday. Cowan 3.4 graph based on satellite (now back down to 0.755, which is down 0.3 in 3 days from last week's peak and is halfway down to the 0.5ish level it was at before the sudden and sharp rise that got many excited):http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Cowan's satellite based graph is all of the way back down to +0.582 as of 0Z 6/30! The cooldown has actually accelerated somewhat since yesterday. It has cooled about .045 over the last four days. Although it hasn't cooled back as rapidly as the preceding sudden warming that got some people here excited, it still has been an impressively sharp drop, which has already resulted in a loss of over 80% of that rise. This is somewhat resembling what happened in Nov. of 2012, which had a false warming of sorts. Regarding the weeklies, today's NOAA release (for last calendar week averaged) will be quite interesting. The Cowan graph would suggest a steep rise to ~+0.9. However, the TAO (buoy) based graphs suggest only ~+0.5 (virtually no rise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The decline in 1+2 that has been forecast is beginning. 18JUN2014 24.8 2.1 27.4 1.0 28.1 0.5 29.4 0.5 25JUN2014 24.0 1.6 27.2 1.0 28.0 0.5 29.3 0.5 nino12Mon.gif So, it looks like the satellite based Cowan average for last week in 3.4, +0.9 C, was ignored and that NOAA went with the ~+0.5 of the TAO buoys...no change from last week. This is similar to what NOAA did in November of 2012. They're basically ignoring the satellite based warming of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 So, it looks like the satellite based Cowan average for last week in 3.4, +0.9 C, was ignored and that NOAA went with the ~+0.5 of the TAO buoys...no change from last week. This is similar to what NOAA did in November of 2012. They're basically ignoring the satellite based warming of last week. DMI product uses like 10 different satellites for it's SSTS shows the same warming. I doubt this is anything like November of 2012. And even though OHC has dropped like a rock we should of expected this warming even if it's temporary. The TAO buoys are busted. Either way it's just embarrassing really that we can't even properly track ENSO when we have Satelittes, buoys, a butt ton of argo floats along the equatorial region. Information about the figures The web page shows the sea surface temperature (SST) and anomalies derived from infrared measurements from the polar orbiting satellites. One interpolated field is constructed daily. Only nighttime SST observations are used for the interpolation because these are more representative of the temperature in the upper meters of the water column. One image per day is shown for the last 30 days. The SST anomalies have been calculated with respect to a mean, which has been derived from observations from 1985 to 2001. They are SST climatology monthly values from the Pathfinder project and temporal interpolation is used between the two nearest months to obtain this days SST climatology. For more information on the monthly climatology, see: www.nodc.noaa.gov/sog/pathfinder4km/ Interpolation method Gaps in the observations due to clouds are filled using a 3-dimensional Optimal Interplation technique (see Høyer and She, 2007). The interpolation scheme uses statistics, which are derived locally and provides the "best possible" estimate of the SST observations, assuming steady state statistics. The mean error of the gridded SSTs is about 0.5-0.7oC. Satellite observations The observations of the sea surface temperature are based upon observations from up to 10 different satellites, measuring in Infrared and Microwave wavelengths. The observations are obtained from the Ocean and Sea Ice SAF project (www.osi-saf.org) and from Group on High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (www.ghrsst.org). The satellites products are listed below: Sensor Satellite Resolution (km) AATSR ENVISAT 1 AVHRR (OSI-SAF) NOAA 2 AVHRR (NAVO LAC) NOAA 1 AVHRR (NAVO GAC) NOAA 4 AVHRR METOP_A 1 Modis Aqua 1 Modis Terra 1 AMSR-E Aqua 25 TMI TRMM 25 SEVIRI MSG 5 GOES 5 References Høyer, J. L. and She, J., 2007. Optimal interpolation of sea surface temperature for the North Sea and Baltic Sea, J. Mar. Sys., Vol 65, 1-4, pp. 176-189, 2007. Høyer, J. L. and She, J., 2004. Validation of satellite SST products for the North Sea-Baltic Sea region, DMI technical report, 04-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Friv, So, you're saying TAO is wrong? If so, why did NOAA ignore the satellite based average for last week of +0.9 and instead go with TAO's +0.5? Also, do you realize that the satellite based Cowan has cooled back to +.582 as of 0Z today and is still cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 So is this cooling the start of a possible transition to central based El Nino? I see the CFSv2 continues cooling Nino 1+2 in the long term, while it forecasted Nino 3.4 to continue warming in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 So is this cooling the start of a possible transition to central based El Nino? I see the CFSv2 continues cooling Nino 1+2 in the long term, while it forecasted Nino 3.4 to continue warming in the long term. Doubt it...region 3.4 had the most dramatic cooldown according to satellite estimates, even above region 1+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Even when the satellite estimates use a ten of different satellites, they all use either MW or IR techniques, which are limited by cloud coverage in the short term. They use OI (optimum interpolation) technique to cover those gaps (you can read all this in Friv's post above). This can introduce errors when estimating over short period of times. My thinking is that there was some warming, as the OKW started to surface in the eq EPac, but it was overblown to a certain degree by the satellite estimators, probably because of above normal cloud coverage around the CPac. This is just speculation, but a plausible cause of the spike and dive of the SSTAs estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Doubt it...region 3.4 had the most dramatic cooldown according to satellite estimates, even above region 1+2. CPC update released today didn't show a cool down in Nino 3.4. They kept it at 0.5 degrees C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 CPC update released today didn't show a cool down in Nino 3.4. They kept it at 0.5 degrees C. Yep, and that makes the possibility of becoming more central based even more doubtful. Weaker overall, probably a bit, but talking about being more central based because 1+2 is cooler with no warming in 3.4 is a weak argument, IMO. For a better signaling, I would like to see a stronger Niño which translates the eastern warmth to the CPac...there is no such translation so far, just a bit of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Friv, So, you're saying TAO is wrong? If so, why did NOAA ignore the satellite based average for last week of +0.9 and instead go with TAO's +0.5? Also, do you realize that the satellite based Cowan has cooled back to +.582 as of 0Z today and is still cooling? No. I am saying there was warming which the sats show then it cooled off which is what you guys talked about. My post was complaining that we have all of these modern instruments and we can't even track enso with precision. Every single one of those argo floats have taken measurements of the ssts and sub surface warmth the last month. Probably thousands of measurements from argo floats alone over the last month along the equatorial region. I can't see how that data can't be used to map out the OHC along the equatorial region. It may not be in near real time but still it should be able to be done relatively easily even with the floats moving around. Add in the plethora of satellites and working TAO buoys and we still don't have a clear picture of the situation. That is a joke. We have spent hundreds of millions building satellites to pretty much scan everything we can possibly scan but we can't track an ENSO event in 2014. It's really inexcusable. I am sure funding sucks so it's probably a political problem but it's still pretty pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I think a strong Niño is likely off the table. For one, OHC is about to dip negative, while the WPAC warm pool is rapidly retreating: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Furthermore, the trades continue to blow. The MJO event that was mentioned earlier has led to minor WWB/weakened easterlies well W of the dateline, but otherwise has not done much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Saw that the PDO has recently went positive. Last couple of times it has done that was the 2002/2003 Nino and briefly during the 2006/2007 and 2009/2010. So I guess that's a good sign for this incoming El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I think a strong Niño is likely off the table. For one, OHC is about to dip negative, while the WPAC warm pool is rapidly retreating: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Furthermore, the trades continue to blow. The MJO event that was mentioned earlier has led to minor WWB/weakened easterlies well W of the dateline, but otherwise has not done much: Agree with your assessment...strong Niño is almost out of the question (my assessment would be <20% probability)...if it weren't for the momentum of the very strong OKW back in spring we wouldn't be talking much about a warm ENSO event. Westerly anomalies at or west of 150E are more indicative of a cooling event. Real time Homvollers and the CFS 2 forecasted 850 uwinds doesn't show any warming in the short/medium term. This should reflect soon in the CFS v2 ENSO plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png I say this with zero ENSO skill, but can we even take a moderate el nino off the table and go with neutral to weak at this point? I think that large groan we can hear is coming from California... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I say this with zero ENSO skill, but can we even take a moderate el nino off the table and go with neutral to weak at this point? I think that large groan we can hear is coming from California... I do not think you can take moderate off the table...it is still only July 1st. The upper 100m still has some good warm anomalies leftover from the big kelvin wave earlier this season. That still leaves at least some potential if we resume some WWBs down the road, but the overall look of the ENSO event has definitely begun to unravel over the past 30-50 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I say this with zero ENSO skill, but can we even take a moderate el nino off the table and go with neutral to weak at this point? I think that large groan we can hear is coming from California... Jon, No, the fall/winter peak in 3.4 still has a nontrivial chance to reach low end strong (SFC is nearly there now after having been high end weak just a few weeks ago) though super strong's chances are about gone and strong's chances have dropped. Weak (especially) and moderate have increased in likelihood a lot vs. how they looked back in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Cowan satellite based data: 3.4 down to only +0.299 as of 0z 7/2 after being above +1.000 on 6/26. However, it appears that a bottom may be approaching here in the high +0.2's, which is the coolest since mid-April! Once it bottoms, let's see if there is at least a deadcat bounce.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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