2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[ORH_wxman]

The warm anomalies sure have shrank. I'm a total ENSO newb though, does this mean we are looking at a weak el nino?

 

 

No, it could still be moderate or even strong if the WWBs pick back up. We won't get a very strong Nino though unless something crazy happens. That ship has probably sailed.

[nflwxman]

No, it could still be moderate or even strong if the WWBs pick back up. We won't get a very strong Nino though unless something crazy happens. That ship has probably sailed.

Agreed.  We do need a new Kelvin wave to have an official Nino last until next year.  The subsurface warm anomalies will probably be tapped by late fall otherwise.

[AlaskaETC]

 

NOAA has updated their ENSO discussion.  The warm up in the eastern portion of the basin appears to be real.  

 

The latest weekly SST 

departures are: 

Niño 4    0.5ºC 

Niño 3.4 0.5ºC 

Niño 3    1.0ºC 

Niño1+2  2.1ºC

 

Interesting..

[Eskimo Joe]

 

NOAA has updated their ENSO discussion.  The warm up in the eastern portion of the basin appears to be real.  

 

The latest weekly SST 

departures are: 

Niño 4    0.5ºC 

Niño 3.4 0.5ºC 

Niño 3    1.0ºC 

Niño1+2  2.1ºC

 

Link so I can bookmark?  

[nflwxman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

[blizzardof96]

Yes, most of the heat is surfacing in the eastern Pacific...but lack of westerly wind bursts though have eroded most of the warm anomalies at the subsurface outside of extreme eastern regions.

 

 

It looks like we may see some weak WWBs finally restarting over the next week. We'll have to see if we can get a more significant event to kick-start it up again.

This makes sense given the fact that the MJO wave is beginning to head toward's phases 7/8. This should amplify westerly flow in behind the wave over the next couple of weeks.

[GaWx]

 

 Wow, OHC has dropped from +1.95 to +0.6 in less than 3 months!

 

 

According to the link below, the current calendar week's averaged 3.4 SST anom., which will be released Monday by NOAA, is +0.6:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Let's see if NOAA raises it from last week's +0.4 to +0.6. That wouldn't be surprising as that isn't that much of a rise. More importantly, let's see what happens in the subsequent week and how this graph evolves over the next week or so. After such a steep rise, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some drop back pretty quickly. Regardless, I'd take this graph with a grain, partially because dailies are volatile/what happened in 2012 suggested a false warming, and put more emphasis on what NOAA does. The number to be released a week from Monday will be more interesting.

 

 

 As has already been stated, 3.4 was raised from +0.4 to +0.5. This is actually less than what the Levi Cowan graph (linked below) suggested for the calendar week 6/15-21, which was +0.6. However, it isn't that far off

 The more interesting weekly for 3.4 will be released a week from today. Will Levi's 3.4 stay around +1.0 for the rest of this calendar week? If so, will NOAA release ~+1.0 one week from today for 3.4? Will Levi's 3.4 drop back down a good bit? Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of "As the Nino Churns"!

 

Levi 3.4:   http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[StudentOfClimatology]

The vast majority of OHC does not simply disappear, it is returned to the deep ocean through up-welling. This implies that we will need to deal with it again down the road.

Granted, oceanic mixing does enhance the recovery period between el ninos. The ocean is already overloaded with heat.

Not exactly. The cooling is due to upwelling off the South-American coast. The earlier subsurface warming was a result of downwelling associated with the large kelvin wave.

Essentially, the WPAC warm-pool sloshes back and forth across the basin, coupled with the atmospheric circulation(s).

[AvantHiatus]

Not exactly. The cooling is due to upwelling off the South-American coast. The earlier subsurface warming was a result of downwelling associated with the large kelvin wave.

Essentially, the WPAC warm-pool sloshes back and forth across the basin, coupled with the atmospheric circulation(s).

Your expertise is always deeply appreciated. My point was that it is preferable to release it now, this will also allow the equatorial ocean to become less anoxic and help the plankton recover. Interesting that the west and east Pacific are simultaneously warm, and not just by a small margin.

 

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/29-4

 

This year's +PDO pattern has been remarkable, a pseudo el nino by itself in a sense. Partially explaining why global temps started out so warm.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Your expertise is always deeply appreciated. My point was that it is preferable to release it now, this will also allow the equatorial ocean to become less anoxic and help the plankton recover. Interesting that the west and east Pacific are simultaneously warm, and not just by a small margin.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/29-4

This year's +PDO pattern has been remarkable, a pseudo el nino by itself in a sense. Partially explaining why global temps started out so warm.

Thank you for the kind words, but I'm just a humble met student, so I'm no Einstein.

Global warming has really affected the IO/WPAC, and may have been responsible for the lack of WWBs due to the lack of a thermal contrast/dignified tropical forcing (tends to bias convective regimes). This may favor an increased frequency of La Niña. The EPAC has not yet warmed because the natural state there (in the means) is one of upwelling, bringing colder waters up from the depths, while downwelling occurs in the WPAC, leading to enhanced warming..

I don't believe the PDO is as important as some (Bastardi et al) make it out to be, in terms of forcing ENSO. Rather, I believe that the periods of observed global warming (1910-1945, 1975-present) both forced the PDO negative, due to the same IO/WPAC & EPAC SST divergence, leading to stronger trades/increase in La Niña frequency. You'll notice that the more stable climate beforehand the early 20th century saw little fluctuation in the PDO, based on re-analysis..

[Sunny and Warm]

Thank you for the kind words, but I'm just a humble met student, so I'm no Einstein.

Global warming has really affected the IO/WPAC, and may have been responsible for the lack of WWBs due to the lack of a thermal contrast/dignified tropical forcing (tends to bias convective regimes). This may favor an increased frequency of La Niña. The EPAC has not yet warmed because the natural state there (in the means) is one of upwelling, bringing colder waters up from the depths, while downwelling occurs in the WPAC, leading to enhanced warming..

I don't believe the PDO is as important as some (Bastardi et al) make it out to be, in terms of forcing ENSO. Rather, I believe that the periods of observed global warming (1910-1945, 1975-present) both forced the PDO negative, due to the same IO/WPAC & EPAC SST divergence, leading to stronger trades/increase in La Niña frequency. You'll notice that the more stable climate beforehand the early 20th century saw little fluctuation in the PDO, based on re-analysis..

Do you have a link to that reanalysis?  TIA

[GaWx]

 Based on the above post, the Euro operational runs couldn't have done much better than they have done over the last 12 days or so as far as predicting the SOI is concerned. Back on 6/2-3, it very accurately picked the dip into the -20's on 6/9. Back then, it also picked the peak of +30's for 6/13. It doesn't get this wild very often. From 6/9 to 6/12, the SOI rose ~59 points. The last time the SOI moved that much in just three days was a 67 point drop way back from 4/7 to 4/10 of 2002! So, this was a real good test. The accurate Euro is nothing new in general in this region as I've been following its performance on and off for a number of years now. That region of the world is highly predictable for the Euro op. and is in total contrast to other areas like the Arctic. Therefore, I'll continue to use it for future SOI predictions.

 

 The SOI's in the low +30's of 6/12-13 are the highest since Jan. 15. However, the 0Z 6/13 Euro says that these last two days of low +30's will be the highest in the forseeable future. Nevertheless, there is still no a longlasting solid negative SOI streak being suggested through 6/24. This run is predicting the following: a drop to the +20's for 6/14 and then falling each day to somewhere within the -5 to -15 range 6/18. Next, a slow rise to the 0 to +10 range on ~6/20-1 is suggested, followed by a drop to the 0 to -10 range 6/22-4. That would leave the June month to date SOI averaging ~+3 then with only 6 days left in the month.

 

 Edit: The 0Z 6/13 Euro ensemble mean still doesn't have any real suggestion of a sustained, solid -SOI string through the end of the month.

 

 The 0Z 6/13 Euro did quite well in predicting the daily SOI's through today as per the above. What's today's Euro saying for down the road? Small negative for 6/25 dropping to ~-teens 6/26-7, then rise to near -5 to +5 range 6/29, then drop to ~-20's 7/1, then rise to ~+teens 7/5. Afterward, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean suggests a +SOI period 7/6-10 due to lower Darwin pressures. So, in summary, it looks mostly negative through 7/3 but followed by mostly positive 7/4-10.

 

 Based on these projections, June will end up near +1. July 1-10 would average positive despite the month starting negative.

[Msalgado]

Thank you for the kind words, but I'm just a humble met student, so I'm no Einstein.

Global warming has really affected the IO/WPAC, and may have been responsible for the lack of WWBs due to the lack of a thermal contrast/dignified tropical forcing (tends to bias convective regimes). This may favor an increased frequency of La Niña. The EPAC has not yet warmed because the natural state there (in the means) is one of upwelling, bringing colder waters up from the depths, while downwelling occurs in the WPAC, leading to enhanced warming..

I don't believe the PDO is as important as some (Bastardi et al) make it out to be, in terms of forcing ENSO. Rather, I believe that the periods of observed global warming (1910-1945, 1975-present) both forced the PDO negative, due to the same IO/WPAC & EPAC SST divergence, leading to stronger trades/increase in La Niña frequency. You'll notice that the more stable climate beforehand the early 20th century saw little fluctuation in the PDO, based on re-analysis..

 

I believe the conclusion of some of Michael Mann's research is that La Nina because a more favorable pattern because of what you have emphasized.  I'm only familiar with it in so far that he's stated he believes this will be a bit of a negative feedback but I've never actually read the research.

[icebreaker5221]

 The 0Z 6/13 Euro did quite well in predicting the daily SOI's through today as per the above. What's today's Euro saying for down the road? Small negative for 6/25 dropping to ~-teens 6/26-7, then rise to near -5 to +5 range 6/29, then drop to ~-20's 7/1, then rise to ~+teens 7/5. Afterward, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean suggests a +SOI period 7/6-10 due to lower Darwin pressures. So, in summary, it looks mostly negative through 7/3 but followed by mostly positive 7/4-10.

 

 Based on these projections, June will end up near +1. July 1-10 would average positive despite the month starting negative.

 

Just out of curiosity, where are you getting the Euro ensemble mean surface pressures for individual stations to 1/10th of a mb out to day 16? 

[GaWx]

Just out of curiosity, where are you getting the Euro ensemble mean surface pressures for individual stations to 1/10th of a mb out to day 16?

I certainly don't need SLP to the nearest 1/10 of a mb to do these estimates. I look at Euro ensemble mean maps with isobars every 4 mb out to day 15. I don't have individual stations on the ensemble nor on the operational, but I don't need them since I eyeball the maps. I'm estimating day 16 by extrapolating from days 14-15. Yes, it takes a bit of work to do this but the results have been good overall in doing this kind of thing with the Euro as per the verifications I've done this year as well as past years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Huge anomalies off the W coast of SA.

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Comparing 2014 to 2009 at this time, the current event is definitely more east-based, but otherwise eerily similar in terms of SST configuration:

[The_Global_Warmer]

Layout change.

 

[AlaskaETC]

Comparing 2014 to 2009 at this time, the current event is definitely more east-based, but otherwise eerily similar in terms of SST configuration:

For winter lovers, is that good or bad news in terms of the SST configuration?

[GaWx]

For winter lovers, is that good or bad news in terms of the SST configuration?

It is too early to tell IMO. The ultimate strength is still way up in the air. For example, in the last few weeks, the CFS has gone from predicting for region 3.4 strong to moderate to high end weak and now back to solid moderate. Also, some models have been leaning to make this less east based/more west based by late fall/winter. Meanwhile, despite there being mainly negative SOI's being projected through 7/3, the Euro ensemble suggests a predominantly +SOI period 7/4-10 and for 7/1-10 to average +SOIwise. Also, June is projected by the Euro to end up near +1. So, we really still have no long solidly negative period on the horizon just yet. Bottom line: still lots of uncertainty. What you're seeing on current SST anomaly maps could easily look far different by late fall.

[blizzardof96]

It is too early to tell IMO. The ultimate strength is still way up in the air. For example, in the last few weeks, the CFS has gone from predicting for region 3.4 strong to moderate to high end weak and now back to solid moderate. Also, some models have been leaning to make this less east based/more west based by late fall/winter. Meanwhile, despite there being mainly negative SOI's being projected through 7/3, the Euro ensemble suggests a predominantly +SOI period 7/4-10 and for 7/1-10 to average +SOIwise. Also, June is projected by the Euro to end up near +1. So, we really still have no long solidly negative period on the horizon just yet. Bottom line: still lots of uncertainty. What you're seeing on current SST anomaly maps could easily look far different by late fall.

On top of all that uncertainty, different nino strength's work out better for different parts of NA. Another interesting feature is the stronger NE Pac warmpool and the strong K current right now. How this pattern evolves heading into the SON period is really what matters so well have to see what happens.

[Kory]

Hello everyone.  Relatively new the forum, but I decided to finally register and partake in the discussion.  Looks like the SOI is finally starting to fall.  With a stronger low pressure developing by Tahiti currently and looking for it to possibly hang around through the end of the month.  The SOI should continue to drop.  

 

[blizzardof96]

The telling sign right now is that even when the SOI can drop negative for short time, the best WWB's remain in the 

IO instead of over the Pacific. It's very difficult for WWB's to get strong enough to move the El Nino development

along with the WPAC SST's so warm and the cold tongue across the South Pacific favoring higher pressures

over the South Pacific and an active trade wind pattern.

 

Best WWB's remain over the IO.

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.png

 

I think this is more applicable for hovmollers that include the 15s-5s latitude. The Chilean current right now is displaced south by nearly 20 degrees latitude from its normal position. This is partly due to the highly positive SAM state in addition to perhaps some influence from the decadal phase of the PDO otherwise known as the IPO. This feature hasn't really been successful in producing easterly wind anomalies along the equator, but instead the weak easterlies are displaced south. Features to the west driven by the AAO state and possibly the atlantic circumpolar wave or AGW are really preventing westerly wind anomalies west of the dateline.

[Kory]

On top of all that uncertainty, different nino strength's work out better for different parts of NA. Another interesting feature is the stronger NE Pac warmpool and the strong K current right now. How this pattern evolves heading into the SON period is really what matters so well have to see what happens.

That should at least be interesting for parts of the Southern and Eastern U.S.  With an active subtropical jet and repeated cold shots due to the North Pacific warmpool, could spell a snowy winter for those aforementioned locations.  

[Kory]

Huge anomalies off the W coast of SA.

 

 

I'm not sure how much longer those anomalies can sustain themselves as we have cold water building below due to the lack of a Kelvin Wave.  

 

The MJO isn't going to help either.  Forecasts have it hanging around the Maritime continent where it won't have an effect on the Walker cell.

[GaWx]

Hello everyone.  Relatively new the forum, but I decided to finally register and partake in the discussion.  Looks like the SOI is finally starting to fall.  With a stronger low pressure developing by Tahiti currently and looking for it to possibly hang around through the end of the month.  The SOI should continue to drop.  

 

 

koryp,

 Welcome to the discussion! I agree with you about negatives dominating through the end of the month (although it should at least approach zero 6/29-30 before quickly dropping back). We should get some -20's into the mix, possibly including the next two days and ~7/1. The negatives should dominate through 7/3. However, it still looks like there will be a decided rise to positives and it looks to make it at least to the +10's 7/5-6 with a potential peak in the +20's or so around 7/9. It still looks like 7/1-10 will average positive despite the ~-20's on 7/1. Yesterday, I had projected near +1 for the final June monthly SOI. However, I'm now going with near 0 for June as a whole. Regardless, the bottom line is that there still is no longlasting solidly negative SOI on the horizon per the Euro at least. Instead, there looks to be a pretty even mix between negatives and positive between now and 7/10.

[Kory]

Looks like we've seen some significant warming in Nino 3.4, per Levi Cowan's graphs.  Buoys aren't quite as bullish with it.  We shall see at Monday's update.  

[Kory]

Updated Nino 3.4 forecast has a stronger Nino (moderate to borderline strong) peaking sometime early winter before a decay.  

 

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The Levi Cowan satellite based graph for 3.4 has been stuck near +1.0 for about the last six days. If it holds into at least tomorrow, it would suggest a sharp increase to about the +0.9 to +1.0 range from +0.5 on the next NOAA calendar weekly, which will be released on Monday. That is the case if what NOAA uses is in agreement with the data used by Cowan...still a big if as of now. The TAO buoys and the CFS progs per the post above this one would suggest much cooler...closer to only +0.5. This reminds me of the Nov. 2012 mess to some extent but not entirely by any means because the satellite based data is still not cooling back down and eastern Nino regions are warmer this time.

 

Cowan graph: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Kory]

Folks,

 The Levi Cowan satellite based graph for 3.4 has been stuck near +1.0 for about the last six days. If it holds into at least tomorrow, it would suggest a sharp increase to about the +0.9 to +1.0 range from +0.5 on the next NOAA calendar weekly, which will be released on Monday. That is the case if what NOAA uses is in agreement with the data used by Cowan...still a big if as of now. The TAO buoys and the CFS progs per the post above this one would suggest much cooler...closer to only +0.5. This reminds me of the Nov. 2012 mess to some extent.

 

Cowan graph: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

While somewhat similar to the 2012 Nino fiasco, these numbers have been holding steady for some time.  In 2012, the numbers shot up and then dropped just as quick.  This warming is probably legit as we're seeing some of the warmest subsurface temps start to surface from the Kelvin Wave.  I think we've got about another week of warming before cooler, albeit still positive anomalies, start to surface.