2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[Ground Scouring]

What "background state" are you referring to, and how is it unique? If you're referring to the IO warmth, that'd be detrimental to the Niño circulation in the long run.

Also, if you don't mind me asking, what brings you to the conclusion that we're in for the "strongest west based niño on record"?

Re: the background state, I'm referring the overall wave pattern in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the SOI region between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. My contention re: the strongest west-based Niño is based on projected model trends and ONI SSTA data for previous warm and cold ENSO events in the 3.4 region.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Re: the background state, I'm referring the overall wave pattern in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the SOI region between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. My contention re: the strongest west-based Niño is based on projected model trends and ONI SSTA data for previous warm and cold ENSO events in the 3.4 region.

I see, thanks. Agreed the waves are out of sync, but what leads you to think the models are not properly incorporating this into their simulations? I don't see how that could possibly be the case.

[GaWx]

_{I very strongly disagree. The current state of the PDO is the most strongly negative one we have seen in some time and is at least as strong as the one in 1997-1998. I would place more weight on the IO state as influencing the SOI and preventing more sustained WWBs from developing. Even so, the past few weeks have seen steady warming in 3.4. The chance of a super Niño was never likely to begin with. I still think that due to the rather unique background state, models are underdoing the projected strength of Niño. I think that a strong (1.6° to 1.9° C), but not super, Niño is still likely in line with Isotherm's and HM's expectations. In fact, we may see an unusually strong west-based Niño that starts as centrally based, with the strongest positive anomalies progressing westward over time. My own prediction is for the strongest west-based Niño on record, based on peak tri-monthly ONI.}

 

 _{We'll have to agree to disagree. I've found that stronger Ninos tend to be less frequent during -PDO regimes, which is intuitive due to the tendency for cooler than normal water off of the west coast of N.A during that regime. Remember I'm talking regime here. We both know there are solid +PDO periods during -PDO regimes and these are often during Ninos. The Nino sort of fights back against the -PDO but it tends to take a toll on the Nino strength vs. what that strength would have been if it were a +PDO regime.}

[Ground Scouring]

 _{We'll have to agree to disagree. I've found that stronger Ninos tend to be less frequent during -PDO regimes, which is intuitive due to the tendency for cooler than normal water off of the west coast of N.A during that regime. Remember I'm talking regime here. We both know there are solid +PDO periods during -PDO regimes and these are often during Ninos. The Nino sort of fights back against the -PDO but it tends to take a toll on the Nino strength vs. what that strength would have been if it were a +PDO regime.}

Thanks for clarifying. Now I see your point. I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusion that, in general, -PDO regimes tend to produce weaker Niño events, but there are always exceptions to the rule, and I think this year might be one such example. We'll see.

[Isotherm]

 _{We'll have to agree to disagree. I've found that stronger Ninos tend to be less frequent during -PDO regimes, which is intuitive due to the tendency for cooler than normal water off of the west coast of N.A during that regime. Remember I'm talking regime here. We both know there are solid +PDO periods during -PDO regimes and these are often during Ninos. The Nino sort of fights back against the -PDO but it tends to take a toll on the Nino strength vs. what that strength would have been if it were a +PDO regime.}

 

 

I agree with you on the fact that El Nino events tend to be more frequent during +PDO regimes, but I don't necessarily agree completely regarding intensity.

 

The previous -PDO regime of the late 1940s-late 1970s contained the following very robust / strong +ENSO events:

 

1957-58 featured an ENSO region 3.4 peak of +1.8c in NDJ and DJF.

 

1965-66 featured an ENSO region 3.4 peak of +1.9c in SON and OND.

 

1972-73 was a super nino and featured an ENSO region 3.4 peak of +2.1c in OND and NDJ.

 

So honestly there's no evidence that a -PDO prevents a strong or super nino from occurring. I know you weren't arguing that, I'm just saying the -PDO can't so much be utilized as a counter point for the intensity of an el nino, but rather the duration of the +ENSO event and the frequency of El Ninos. For that, one will find a higher frequency and longer duration +ENSO events during the +PDO eras. But intensity wise, we have still seen impressive spikes to very strong Nino territory within the -PDO regime, like 57, 65, and 72.

 

For this particular ENSO event, I think the best arguing point against a super nino has been and continues to be the lack of persistent WWB's through the mid/late spring, and the lack of atmospheric pressure transition toward a higher pressure regime in the west Pacific. We really need to build pressures over Australia and the SW Pacific in order to initiate some solid WWB's. This will be a late onset El Nino and should be a robust one at that. Global temperatures are already spiking and other indicators suggest to me that a strong El Nino (not super nino) is still very much in play. I'd say as low as mid range moderate to +1.9c is possible for the peak.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm obviously pretty light on the ENSO stuff, and the EastPac off Mexico is North of the Equator, but 2 major hurricanes before June is half over, I can't help but feel it is a sign of the developing Nino.

 

 

Definitely some strong warm anomalies off Mexico.  As to the East/WEst/Central, it would seem the warmest anomalies are in the East for now,

[The_Global_Warmer]

I'm obviously pretty light on the ENSO stuff, and the EastPac off Mexico is North of the Equator, but 2 major hurricanes before June is half over, I can't help but feel it is a sign of the developing Nino.

 

 

Definitely some strong warm anomalies off Mexico.  As to the East/WEst/Central, it would seem the warmest anomalies are in the East for now,

 

Makes sense with how the subsurface is set up.

 

There is still a large area of sub surface warmth over the EPAC up to the SA coast.

 

 

The question is what is next?  Is there going to be another push of strong Westerly wind burst to reinforce the warmth that has waned over the central Pac and push the Epac warmth to the surface to kick off the strong nino.

 

Or will this just meander around this get up into the 1.0-1.3C+ range and then dissipate? 

 

If anyone could post those graphics showing surface water flow along the equator that would be awesome.

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

http://www.oscar.noaa.gov/datadisplay/oscar_latlon.php?pagetype=nonjava

[StudentOfClimatology]

It'll be interesting to see if the trade wind surge will do any further damage:

[phil882]

 

If anyone could post those graphics showing surface water flow along the equator that would be awesome.

 

 

 

 

http://www.oscar.noaa.gov/datadisplay/oscar_latlon.php?pagetype=nonjava

 

I haven't chimed in in a while, but yes it appears to longer than expected period of enhanced trade winds in the Central Pacific is now translating to a more traditional ocean current pattern in the Pacific. 

 

Note the development of anomalous easterly oceanic currents... this is definitely a reversal of the strong anomalous westerly oceanic currents we saw last month. This certainly could retard the progress of the deepest warmest water still situated along the dateline. My expectations back in May were that we would continue to see anomalous westerly oceanic currents continuing to push the warmer subsurface water eastward, but it appears that process has halted for the time being. 

 

 

Compare to a month ago

 

[csnavywx]

It'll be interesting to see if the trade wind surge will do any further damage:

Probably. Although it appears to be short lived since most guidance is picking up on another period of westerly flow near/west of the dateline in about 7-10 days. If the MJO swings around towards the WPAC with any strength, it could be a significant WWB.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z 6/3 Euro agrees well with the 6/1-2 Euros. It says to look for an SOI roller coaster ride over the next 11+ days. Note that it has fallen 12 in the two days...so the expected fall has started. Based on this run, I'd expect it to continue to fall off most days through ~6/9, when it could easily bottom out in the -20's or so. However, it should then rise back up rapidly to the +30's or so by 6/13-14, which would be the strongest daily positives since mid-January! So, the first half of June is still showing no signs for a sustained negative string of SOI's and is instead looking to have big swings in both directions. Also, the 30 day SOI as of 6/15 will almost certainly remain pretty solidly positive (say +5 to +10 range).

 

Edit: I'm expecting the 90 day SOI to continue its steady rise and to rise to near the +3 range between now and mid June from the current +0.77.

 

 Based on the above post, the Euro operational runs couldn't have done much better than they have done over the last 12 days or so as far as predicting the SOI is concerned. Back on 6/2-3, it very accurately picked the dip into the -20's on 6/9. Back then, it also picked the peak of +30's for 6/13. It doesn't get this wild very often. From 6/9 to 6/12, the SOI rose ~59 points. The last time the SOI moved that much in just three days was a 67 point drop way back from 4/7 to 4/10 of 2002! So, this was a real good test. The accurate Euro is nothing new in general in this region as I've been following its performance on and off for a number of years now. That region of the world is highly predictable for the Euro op. and is in total contrast to other areas like the Arctic. Therefore, I'll continue to use it for future SOI predictions.

 

 The SOI's in the low +30's of 6/12-13 are the highest since Jan. 15. However, the 0Z 6/13 Euro says that these last two days of low +30's will be the highest in the forseeable future. Nevertheless, there is still no a longlasting solid negative SOI streak being suggested through 6/24. This run is predicting the following: a drop to the +20's for 6/14 and then falling each day to somewhere within the -5 to -15 range 6/18. Next, a slow rise to the 0 to +10 range on ~6/20-1 is suggested, followed by a drop to the 0 to -10 range 6/22-4. That would leave the June month to date SOI averaging ~+3 then with only 6 days left in the month.

 

 Edit: The 0Z 6/13 Euro ensemble mean still doesn't have any real suggestion of a sustained, solid -SOI string through the end of the month.

[StudentOfClimatology]

As of now, stronger than average trade winds are progged continue for at least the next week. There is even a signal for another trade wind burst possibly right over Niño 3.4, about 6 days from now. Obviously, that is still way out there, but I think the chances of a strong Niño are beginning to decrease, with a moderate event now more likely. Time will tell.

[ORH_wxman]

It is still pretty early in the season...the trade winds have probably nixed the chances of a "super nino"...but I think strong is still very easily attainable. Now, if we are still seeing this 4-6 weeks from now, then we might have to reconsider.

[GaWx]

It is still pretty early in the season...the trade winds have probably nixed the chances of a "super nino"...but I think strong is still very easily attainable. Now, if we are still seeing this 4-6 weeks from now, then we might have to reconsider.

Based on 1902-3, 1918-9, 1925-6, 1930-1, and 2009-10, I fully agree that strong is still very much on the table. None of them had sustained solid negative SOI's yet thru June. However, I agree that those who want a super Nino like 1997-8 are almost definitely going to be quite disappointed.

[uncle W]

this years oni is on par with 2009...also 1986 when there was a two year nino...it got stronger after the winter of 86-87...

[chubbs]

The euro is still bullish on mjo progression. Next couple of days will be key.

[JBG]

this years oni is on par with 2009...also 1986 when there was a two year nino...it got stronger after the winter of 86-87...

I would hesitate before invoking warm-phase analogs such as 1986-7. Also it did plunge to a rare (for warm phase) strong La Niña for 1988-9, thus that year's torrid summer.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looks like a stout warmup over the ENSO regions.

 

 

[AlaskaETC]

Looks like a stout warmup over the ENSO regions.

 

 

Warmer water in the east, does that indicate anything?

[Dsnowx53]

Warmer water in the east, does that indicate anything?

For one thing, east-based Ninos tend to hinder the Atlantic hurricane season more than centrally and west-based Ninos.

[wxmx]

Warming was fully expected when that historic OKW formed a few months back, anomalies are surfacing now that it has reached the South American continent. Atmospheric response has been lacking, and OHC is depleting rapidly. I'm very confident we are outside the window of a >2C ENSO event...and clock is ticking for a >1.5C El Niño.

 

The aforementioned OKW will almost single handedly bring us up to El Niño status soon, but as a consequence of the very weak atmospheric positive feedback, now moderate looks like a more probable outcome than strong. One thing to note, however, is that positive feedback could commence now that warmer waters have surfaced. We shall see.

[AlaskaETC]

For one thing, east-based Ninos tend to hinder the Atlantic hurricane season more than centrally and west-based Ninos.

 

I think this is looking like a east-based Nino right now, would that be a correct assessment to hold on to, or is too early to call?

[Eskimo Joe]

Are west or east based El Ninos better for east coast winters?  Also, we usually wait on the tri-monthlies before confirming the existence of an El Nino or La Nina right?

EDIT:  Trying to lurk daily on this thread to learn more.  

[Dsnowx53]

Are west or east based El Ninos better for east coast winters?  Also, we usually wait on the tri-monthlies before confirming the existence of an El Nino or La Nina right?

EDIT:  Trying to lurk daily on this thread to learn more.  

 

 

West-based Ninos are much better for east coast winters. 

 

Although the signature appears to be east-based right now, it could still easily become more west-based as the next few months go on. 

 

And technically, we do need to wait for the tri-monthlies...but I think the best indicator is waiting for an atmospheric response with things such as the SOI and the weakened Walker Circulation, etc. The atmosphere has yet to fully respond, but perhaps now that the warmth is beginning to reach the surface, it may respond somewhat. 

[Eskimo Joe]

West-based Ninos are much better for east coast winters. 

 

Although the signature appears to be east-based right now, it could still easily become more west-based as the next few months go on. 

 

And technically, we do need to wait for the tri-monthlies...but I think the best indicator is waiting for an atmospheric response with things such as the SOI and the weakened Walker Circulation, etc. The atmosphere has yet to fully respond, but perhaps now that the warmth is beginning to reach the surface, it may respond somewhat. 

Thanks for the explanation.  Are there any papers discussing west vs. east based Ninos for east coast winters?

[Quixotic1]

Are west or east based El Ninos better for east coast winters? Also, we usually wait on the tri-monthlies before confirming the existence of an El Nino or La Nina right?

EDIT: Trying to lurk daily on this thread to learn more.

5 consecutive tri-monthliy ONIs of +0.5 or higher to be an el nino. Right now we have "el nino conditions".

The eastern regions are more subject to variation so an eastern based event isn't certain.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if we continue to have weakening in the forecast with the July and

August updates or we level off where the forecast is now. You can see how the lack of

atmospheric response with  the warmer waters in the WPAC and +SOI have seen several

models back off the intensity since the April update.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

Are some people here living in another world? I assume you think this temporary. What will happen when a stronger westerly burst arrives?

 

[Sunny and Warm]

Weatherguy,

 

Why are your extrapolating one data point to counter a model discussion covering the entire ENSO region?  It is but one piece of information.  You may or may not be correct that a new westerly burst happens or if it is strong enough to sustain a strong nino.  The opposite ( a less potent west wind)  could just as easily occur and the modeling will be correct.