2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[HM]

The equatorial trades and itcz behavior isn't all that strong post wwb during positive soi.

[HM]

The SOI trends over the past couple months confirm to me that attaining "super nino" status of +2.0c or greater in region 3.4, is very unlikely to occur. I still believe that there's a very good chance for a strong nino in general (+1.5c to +1.9c). With that being said, based upon solely the SOI, you would be going out on a limb in forecasting a strong el nino as we haven't seen one since (at least 1950) with both April and May +SOI months. All of the strong El Nino's since 1950 had either April or May -SOI. However, I think the PDO spike has been very impressive, and quite similar to the 1957 oncoming El Nino, which ended up peaking at +1.8c for the trimonthly region 3.4 value. Very warm SST's from AK southward into the tropics. In the decadal sense, we're not too dissimilar from the mid/late 50s era in that the PDO flipped cold approximately 7 years ago and we're in the midst of the +AMO phase (though a temporary downturn this summer).

We still have to keep in mind that the SOI plummet that occurred late winter, with a March value of -13.3, was very impressive and certainly reflective of an oncoming moderate to strong el nino. It just so happens that this particular event is timed differently than many of the others, and so the "relaxation period" of minimal WWB's is occurring during April/May. Thus, while statistically it may be unlikely to reach a strong nino based on the April/May SOI tendencies, I think it's more likely that the evolution of the ENSO event is timed differently than most of the other strong el ninos. The SOI looks to turn negative once into the second week of June as pressures lower substantially in the central tropical pacific, and the SOI should be looking like a robust nino is coming in another couple weeks.

There are guys arguing for weak, low end moderate because of the SOI. I agree that timing of intraseasonal waves is not following the usual. The very displaced itcz and strong Hadley cells across Pacific are making for an unusual look. Whether or not this means very strong or moderately strong is anyone's guess. The best this elevated soi period could do was take the Chilean current west some....but meh...it's still way south and likely part of seasonal cooling in SH.

[bluewave]

You're not understanding because you're not understanding what I'm saying. I didn't say the SOI was flawed in what it does....the negative and positive fluctuations should show the zonal wind anomalies. The point is that it's only localized, into SH between Darwin and Tahiti, influenced by wave activity. The large scale E-C Pac is similar post WWB. So I was speculating why, in a climate sense this could be happening.

 

 

compday.HzqQetmMC5.gif

compday.gd28TgZ1SR.gif

The equatorial trades and itcz behavior isn't all that strong post wwb during positive soi.

 

Oh, so you are just wondering why this is happening now and it's an excellent question to ask. I am isolating

the trade wind behavior further west where it has a greater correlation to Nino 3.4 temperatures and also

the SOI. I am just illustrating the steady weakening of the WWB process in this key region from

March to May as the SOI became positive which was enough to but a brake on the process for the

time being. It will be very interesting to see how significant a development this turns out to be in the weeks

and months ahead. I agree with you that it's an unusual situation and leads to uncertainty in the forecast.

 

 

[Ground Scouring]

Oh, so you are just wondering why this is happening now and it's an excellent question to ask. I am isolating

the trade wind behavior further west where it has a greater correlation to Nino 3.4 temperatures and also

the SOI. I am just illustrating the steady weakening of the WWB process in this key region from

March to May as the SOI became positive which was enough to but a brake on the process for the

time being. It will be very interesting to see how significant a development this turns out to be in the weeks

and months ahead. I agree with you that it's an unusual situation and leads to uncertainty in the forecast.

I'm not so sure that you understand the SH wave pattern HM was referring to. Otherwise, there isn't much disagreement between the two of you. I don't think anyone is expecting a repeat of 1997-1998 in terms of strength, though a strong Niño is still quite possible.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Can someone post an update of the SOI and those graphics showing the flow of the Equatorial surface waters.

 

CPC ENSO data shows a warm pulse enhancing temps around 140W or so.

 

Also why not just use argo data for OHC there?

 

Looks like there are a couple hundred floats today transmitting data between 5N-5S in the Pacific.

 

so?

 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z 6/1 Euro suggests that the SOI will finally go back to negative within about four days and bottom out perhaps in the -teens in about 7-8 days, but then looks to rise back to positive ~day 10.

  The op. Euro overall has been fairly reliable even out to day 10 in that rather predictable part of the world ever since I started to use it for SOI predictions a number of years ago as opposed to how unreliable it has been up in the Arctic, which is apparently much harder to predict.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z 6/1 Euro suggests that the SOI will finally go back to negative within about four days and bottom out perhaps in the -teens in about 7-8 days, but then looks to rise back to positive ~day 10.

  The op. Euro overall has been fairly reliable even out to day 10 in that rather predictable part of the world ever since I started to use it for SOI predictions a number of years ago as opposed to how unreliable it has been up in the Arctic, which is apparently much harder to predict.

 

 The 0Z 6/2 Euro pretty much agrees with the 0Z 6/1 Euro. It says to look for an SOI roller coaster ride over the next 11+ days. Based on this, I'd expect it to fall off most days through ~6/9, when it could easily bottom out down in the -20's or so. However, it should then rise back up rapidly to near the +20 to +30 range by 6/13! So, the first half of June is  showing no signs for a sustained negative string of SOI's and is instead looking to have big swings in both directions.

[uncle W]

this weeks oni was +0.6...last weeks index was +0.5...

[GaWx]

 The 0Z 6/2 Euro pretty much agrees with the 0Z 6/1 Euro. It says to look for an SOI roller coaster ride over the next 11+ days. Based on this, I'd expect it to fall off most days through ~6/9, when it could easily bottom out down in the -20's or so. However, it should then rise back up rapidly to near the +20 to +30 range by 6/13! So, the first half of June is  showing no signs for a sustained negative string of SOI's and is instead looking to have big swings in both directions.

 

 The 0Z 6/3 Euro agrees well with the 6/1-2 Euros. It says to look for an SOI roller coaster ride over the next 11+ days. Note that it has fallen 12 in the two days...so the expected fall has started. Based on this run, I'd expect it to continue to fall off most days through ~6/9, when it could easily bottom out in the -20's or so. However, it should then rise back up rapidly to the +30's or so by 6/13-14, which would be the strongest daily positives since mid-January! So, the first half of June is still showing no signs for a sustained negative string of SOI's and is instead looking to have big swings in both directions. Also, the 30 day SOI as of 6/15 will almost certainly remain pretty solidly positive (say +5 to +10 range).

 

Edit: I'm expecting the 90 day SOI to continue its steady rise and to rise to near the +3 range between now and mid June from the current +0.77.

[ORH_wxman]

 The 0Z 6/3 Euro agrees well with the 6/1-2 Euros. It says to look for an SOI roller coaster ride over the next 11+ days. Note that it has fallen 12 in the two days...so the expected fall has started. Based on this run, I'd expect it to continue to fall off most days through ~6/9, when it could easily bottom out in the -20's or so. However, it should then rise back up rapidly to the +30's or so by 6/13-14, which would be the strongest daily positives since mid-January! So, the first half of June is still showing no signs for a sustained negative string of SOI's and is instead looking to have big swings in both directions. Also, the 30 day SOI as of 6/15 will almost certainly remain pretty solidly positive (say +5 to +10 range).

 

Edit: I'm expecting the 90 day SOI to continue its steady rise and to rise to near the +3 range between now and mid June from the current +0.77.

 

 

It will be interesting to see what happens as we go deeper into the summer. The trade winds have been pretty stubborn over the last month, not really letting any notable WWBs into the picture:

 

[CoastalWx]

I saw that the european weeklies try to suggest a large area of divergence at 200mb (velocity potential) over the eastern Pacific as we head through the month. That might mean convection and westerly winds at the surface developing down the road...but it certainly is not a lock.

[Mike.Ventrice]

I saw that the european weeklies try to suggest a large area of divergence at 200mb (velocity potential) over the eastern Pacific as we head through the month. That might mean convection and westerly winds at the surface developing down the road...but it certainly is not a lock.

 

It's hard to throw out the European weekly forecast as it has been consistently showing an upcoming strong MJO event across the Date Line in through the East Pacific later this month... each forecast intensifies the signal as well, likely meaning more ensemble members are on board. I'll be writing a blog about this tomorrow as it does suggest we should see another period of westerly wind bursts across the central Pacific, possibly some western Pacific tropical cyclones to develop. I'm thinking this will be the final kick for El Nino as the Ocean remains in a state that favors more eastward transport of warm waters as Philippe has shown in Paul Round's ocean current diagnostics. 

[GaWx]

It's hard to throw out the European weekly forecast as it has been consistently showing an upcoming strong MJO event across the Date Line in through the East Pacific later this month... each forecast intensifies the signal as well, likely meaning more ensemble members are on board. I'll be writing a blog about this tomorrow as it does suggest we should see another period of westerly wind bursts across the central Pacific, possibly some western Pacific tropical cyclones to develop. I'm thinking this will be the final kick for El Nino as the Ocean remains in a state that favors more eastward transport of warm waters as Philippe has shown in Paul Round's ocean current diagnostics. 

 

 In terms of getting a long string of sold negative SOI's started, that doesn't look to happen until ~6/17 at the earliest. Today's (6/5 0Z) Euro suggests what the 6/1-4 Euros suggested with a couple of days of solid negatives (maybe as low as -20's) coming up and bottoming ~6/9 followed by a rapid rise to a couple of similarly solid positives that may actually reach as high as the +30's around 6/13-4, probably followed by some fall ~6/15-6. I'll be following the Euro closely to see if it hints at a sig. period of solid negatives as we approach the forecasts for late June over the next week or so.

[uncle W]

latest tri monthly oni was up to -0.2...Latest mei rose sharply to +0.932...This is well into el nino territory...something like this happened in 2012 but that developing el nino failed after a few months...

[GaWx]

 Although the Euro ensemble mean suggests to me some drop in the SOI in the days leading up to 6/20 due to somewhat higher pressures at Darwin, pressures are progged to stay rather high at Tahiti. So, it still doesn't suggest to me any sustained solidly negative SOI period just yet. Actually normal SLP's tend to approach maxima during our summer/their winter as stronger highs tend to come up from the Antarctic. So, as of now, June doesn't look likely to verify solidly negative on the whole.

 

 However,before concluding that 2014-15 will not end up as a strong Nino, consider that 1902-3, 1918-9, 1925-6, 1930-1, and 2009-10 all were pretty strong Nino's that didn't have much in the way of sustained solidly negative SOI's through June and even later in some cases!

[StudentOfClimatology]

The 30 day SOI is approaching +10 now, and the 90 day SOI is now positive as well. Also, there is a strong bout of easterlies now forecast, farther west than the previous one..and stronger.

If the upcoming MJO push fails to produce another set of WWBs later this month, I think that'd be the proverbial nail in the coffin for a "super niño".

[Mike.Ventrice]

Hi guys,  here is a blog I wrote yesterday for our clients. Feedback and comments are welcomed

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-odds-have-been-raised-to-70-by-the-cpc-but-el-nino-is-actually-imminent/

[chubbs]

MEI jumped to 0.93. 7'th highest for april-may period.

 

[GaWx]

Hi guys, here is a blog I wrote yesterday for our clients. Feedback and comments are welcomed

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-odds-have-been-raised-to-70-by-the-cpc-but-el-nino-is-actually-imminent/

Mike,

Very nice and interesting write-up! Fascinating stuff! (I saw a minor typo in the SOI section, by the way. You meant 1982 instead of 2002 for one of the two most negative SOI periods of the last 35 years.) I'm still waiting for the Euro models to show a definitive move of the SOI toward a relatively sustained solidly negative state. As of yesterday's runs, they still didn't show that due to Tahitian SLP's remaining too high overall (though are about to temporarily drop low for a couple of days soon). With what you're saying, I will be extra interested to see what the Euros will be showing as the forecasting period advances into late June and early July!

[Mike.Ventrice]

Mike,

Very nice and interesting write-up! Fascinating stuff! (I saw a minor typo in the SOI section, by the way. You meant 1982 instead of 2002 for one of the two most negative SOI periods of the last 35 years.) I'm still waiting for the Euro models to show a definitive move of the SOI toward a relatively sustained solidly negative state. As of yesterday's runs, they still didn't show that due to Tahitian SLP's remaining too high overall (though are about to temporarily drop low for a couple of days soon). With what you're saying, I will be extra interested to see what the Euros will be showing as the forecasting period advances into late June and early July!

 

Ah yes thanks good catch. I meant 1982*

[GaWx]

Ah yes thanks good catch. I meant 1982*

You're welcome. Per 0z 6/6 Euro, it still looks like we're about to see a sharp SOI fall these next 3 days that will take us to a pretty strongly negative dip (maybe -20's). However, it then still looks to rise quickly back up to strong positives (+20's to possibly peaking ~+30's, which would be highest daily SOI since January) by 6/12-3 before dropping back down. Going to be a relatively volatile week-long period of daily readings!

[bluewave]

I think we'll continue to see the SOI return to positive again after the current dip due to

 the extensive cold pool of SST's across the South Pacific that is are generally associated with

a +SOI pattern in June. Very difficult for the trades from 140E to 150W to relax enough

for stronger WWB's under this type of pattern. The current forecast has the trades

increasing over the next week. All the warmer than normal WPAC SST's west of 180 also

promote stronger trade winds and inhibit WWB's.

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

I think we'll continue to see the SOI return to positive again after the current dip due to

 the extensive old pool of SST's across the South Pacific that is are generally associated with

a +SOI pattern in June. Very difficult for the trades from 140E to 150W to relax enough

for stronger WWB's under this type of pattern. The current forecast has the trades

increasing over the next week. 

 

 The wild SOI ride is expected to continue. Per the 0Z 6/9 Euro, which continues the excellent consistency of the Euro from day to day, 6/9's -29.03 (well predicted by the Euro about a week ago) should be the most negative of the current string with tomorrow's rising some but still likely down in the -20's. Thereafter, the Euro is still suggesting a rapid and large rise to at least +20's and probably above +30 somewhere within 6/12-3. A +30+ would make it the highest daily SOI since January! Subsequently, the model says to expect a pretty sharp drop ~6/14-17 to get it back to negative territory followed then by some rise 6/19-20 possibly getting back to low positives by 6/20. Bottom line: lots of ups and downs and still no clearcut indication of a longlasting solid negative string.

[JBG]

The wild SOI ride is expected to continue. Per the 0Z 6/9 Euro, which continues the excellent consistency of the Euro from day to day, 6/9's -29.03 (well predicted by the Euro about a week ago) should be the most negative of the current string with tomorrow's rising some but still likely down in the -20's. Thereafter, the Euro is still suggesting a rapid and large rise to at least +20's and probably above +30 somewhere within 6/12-3. A +30+ would make it the highest daily SOI since January! Subsequently, the model says to expect a pretty sharp drop ~6/14-17 to get it back to negative territory followed but then some rise 6/19-20 possibly getting back to low positives by 6/20. Bottom line: lots of ups and downs and still no clearcut indication of a longlasting solid negative string.

Could this be yet another failure of El Niño to take hold?

[GaWx]

Could this be yet another failure of El Niño to take hold?

 

 Very doubtful based on the quite warm subsurface. Also, consider that 1902-3, 1918-9, 1925-6, 1930-1, and 2009-10 all were pretty strong Nino's that didn't have much in the way of sustained solidly negative SOI's through June and even later in some cases! However, it probably suggests a lowering chance at a super Nino and a somewhat increased chance at a moderate one vs. earlier thinking. I do think that the negative PDO regime is playing part in holding back the Nino to at least some extent.

[bluewave]

 The wild SOI ride is expected to continue. Per the 0Z 6/9 Euro, which continues the excellent consistency of the Euro from day to day, 6/9's -29.03 (well predicted by the Euro about a week ago) should be the most negative of the current string with tomorrow's rising some but still likely down in the -20's. Thereafter, the Euro is still suggesting a rapid and large rise to at least +20's and probably above +30 somewhere within 6/12-3. A +30+ would make it the highest daily SOI since January! Subsequently, the model says to expect a pretty sharp drop ~6/14-17 to get it back to negative territory followed but then some rise 6/19-20 possibly getting back to low positives by 6/20. Bottom line: lots of ups and downs and still no clearcut indication of a longlasting solid negative string.

 

The record warm SST's over the WPAC and IO since 1998 coupled with record high pressures over the South Pacific

lead to the record trade wind regime from around 150W to 140E. Under this pattern we saw  the El Nino

fail to develop back in 2012. Events that do form like 02-03, 06-07, and 09-10 tend to be more west based and

weaker than the more easterly based events. It's the reason that the best the Pacific has been able to

produce since 98 is only two tri-monthly readings above +1.5 at +1.6 back during the 09-10 event.

[Ed Lizard]

Forgive the ignorance as exactly where the 3.4 point is, but judging from this ~3 month animation, the anomaly has been above 0.5ºC for about two months already and is getting more pronounced.

 

 

3 months makes it an official El Nino, right?  Almost there.

 

[icebreaker5221]

Forgive the ignorance as exactly where the 3.4 point is, but judging from this ~3 month animation, the anomaly has been above 0.5ºC for about two months already and is getting more pronounced.

 

3 months makes it an official El Nino, right?  Almost there.

 

No, you need 5 months of the 3-month running mean to be above +0.5. 

 

They also do the anomaly calculation for you, for those who have difficulty eyeballing the 3.4 location:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

[Ground Scouring]

 Very doubtful based on the quite warm subsurface. Also, consider that 1902-3, 1918-9, 1925-6, 1930-1, and 2009-10 all were pretty strong Nino's that didn't have much in the way of sustained solidly negative SOI's through June and even later in some cases! However, it probably suggests a lowering chance at a super Nino and a somewhat increased chance at a moderate one vs. earlier thinking. I do think that the negative PDO regime is playing part in holding back the Nino to at least some extent.

I very strongly disagree. The current state of the PDO is the most strongly negative one we have seen in some time and is at least as strong as the one in 1997-1998. I would place more weight on the IO state as influencing the SOI and preventing more sustained WWBs from developing. Even so, the past few weeks have seen steady warming in 3.4. The chance of a super Niño was never likely to begin with. I still think that due to the rather unique background state, models are underdoing the projected strength of Niño. I think that a strong (1.6° to 1.9° C), but not super, Niño is still likely in line with Isotherm's and HM's expectations. In fact, we may see an unusually strong west-based Niño that starts as centrally based, with the strongest positive anomalies progressing westward over time. My own prediction is for the strongest west-based Niño on record, based on peak tri-monthly ONI.

[StudentOfClimatology]

What "background state" are you referring to, and how is it unique? If you're referring to the IO warmth, that'd be detrimental to the Niño circulation in the long run.

Also, if you don't mind me asking, what brings you to the conclusion that we're in for the "strongest west based niño on record"?