frostfern Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 They're counting on warm sector instability never reaching that far north. It's expected to waver north and south of here over the next few days, but we'll see. Last week it never really made it past the Ohio border. Actually the elevated instability did make it pretty far north initially. Maybe not enough for severe but there was plenty of lightning, as good as an afternoon t-storm in June or July. Just because the surface air temperature is cold doesn't mean it can't rip lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I'm moving...this is it... Buying a for sale sign at Menards and loading the car...what a joke! 36F and rain here...57F in Prairie Du Chien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 They're counting on warm sector instability never reaching that far north. It's expected to waver north and south of here over the next few days, but we'll see. Last week it never really made it past the Ohio border. Given our climo, that's the better bet to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Bismarck, ND is already near 16 inches of snow with at least a few more inches to go. Still expecting a line of storms to move through eastern Iowa later this evening, although the dewpoints are several degrees lower than model predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 70 and not as windy as Mike Caplan said it would be. Awesome relief from this depressing weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Congrats sweaty pants crew is starting to losing their mind or forgot their meds today. Sunshine here and temps on the soar.. Surprise 60th b-day party time for mom.. Nice knowing most of you all. lol. To me "sticking snow" means it can stay on the ground for several hours even after it stops falling. I'm happy to see the sun. About time. Haven't seen it since last week Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Given our climo, that's the better bet to make. I don't know what you're talking about. You don't need surface based instability to get lightning here. You don't even need it to get severe in some cases. If there's a boundary with 80 degree temps and 60 degree dewpoints less than 100 miles away there's going to be lightning because chances are the edge of the warm sector is overhead at 850mb even if you can't feel the warmth at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 My brother is in Chicago today...go day to go i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Almost at an inch and another rain band is moving in... I feel like i live in North Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Almost at an inch and another rain band is moving in... I feel like i live in North Dakota. quit complaining! You live in the North, deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Author Share Posted April 14, 2013 DLL - there is quite a gradient around here as well. Upper 60s in Chicago and 46 here. It feels ok though because this forecasted cloudy day has been mostly sunny since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 quit complaining! You live in the North, deal! NWS had me at 51F today...they had my hopes up and now its like they took a boot and kick me right in the sack! There was a gradient here of sleet/snow earlier..in Onalaska they have almost nothing (just east of me)..and i still am completely covered... I hate gradients, when i'm on the losing side BRewers won! best team ever... Cubs? not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 NWS had me at 51F today...they had my hopes up and now its like they took a boot and kick me right in the sack! There was a gradient here of sleet/snow earlier..in Onalaska they have almost nothing (just east of me)..and i still am completely covered... I hate gradients, when i'm on the losing side BRewers won! best team ever... Cubs? not so much. may-sept=perfection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Author Share Posted April 14, 2013 Yea. Half dollar flakes coming down and melting on contact here. Water trickling off the roof makes it sound like it's raining though. If this was January sun angle it wouldn't be 37. It would be 32 and sticking. I lived in Seattle for 4 years and they get this kind of **** all the time. Sometimes the vertical temperature gradient is so ridiculously steep off the sound that you just walk 50 feet up the hill from sea level and there's suddenly an inch of slush. Sounds like an interesting situation you had going. I've seen a similar situation in the Smoky Mountains and in hilly areas where there is open water bodies to modify the temperatures just enough. I've seen a snow covered roof on a 5-10 story building before along the lakefront and absolutely bare, wet ground below. Can't wait for May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I don't know what you're talking about. You don't need surface based instability to get lightning here. You don't even need it to get severe in some cases. If there's a boundary with 80 degree temps and 60 degree dewpoints less than 100 miles away there's going to be lightning because chances are the edge of the warm sector is overhead at 850mb even if you can't feel the warmth at the surface. Severe Weather Outbreaks in April are about as common as Snowstorms in April around here. They're possible (and they have happened before), but I wouldn't consider them as normal. The better chances are definitely west of Lake Michigan (though not necessarily immediately downwind) and south of I-80. It's very difficult to get a warm front to overcome those cold lake waters, unless of course the actual jet stream is well to the NW of us. You can get some decent t'storms as that warm air overrides the colder air, but it's also not common to get severe weather from those particular t'storms thanks to the subsequent inversion cap that forms. I'd say mid-May is when the severe weather chances improve for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Warm front is right over-head per radar. Temp is quickly rising now. 69 at ORD and 55 at PWK...Sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Sounds like an interesting situation you had going. I've seen a similar situation in the Smoky Mountains and in hilly areas where there is open water bodies to modify the temperatures just enough. I've seen a snow covered roof on a 5-10 story building before along the lakefront and absolutely bare, wet ground below. Can't wait for May! Yea. It actually happens a lot in Seattle where the elevation varies from sea level up to 400 feet on Capital Hill. Often the cold arctic air comes down from the Frasier Valley up in BC but mixes with a milder marine layer that comes in off the ocean through the straight. The mixing of the two airmasses causes convection similar to lake effect snow with extreme lapse rates in the low level. In the bigger storms the snowfall amounts are always incredibly variable, going from nothing on the water to 6 inches only 5 or 10 miles away and the hilltops will often stick first with a very sharp "snow line" visible only a hundred feet up or so, especially on the trees and roofs of buildings. Seattle also gets a lot of extremely heavy snow showers with temperatures in the middle or upper 30s. Sometimes there's a phenomenon called Puget Sound Convergence Zone where the leading edge of colder air leads to a band that looks like lake effect on radar, but even more convective in nature with, really black sky, a clap of thunder or two, and sheets of super wet flakes and snow pellets. Well, that's really the only exciting weather ever in Seattle. Well, there's occasional wind storm but those are pretty meh away from the coast. That and the occasional elevated t-storm that comes west off the cascades in June or July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Severe Weather Outbreaks in April are about as common as Snowstorms in April around here. They're possible (and they have happened before), but I wouldn't consider them as normal. The better chances are definitely west of Lake Michigan (though not necessarily immediately downwind) and south of I-80. It's very difficult to get a warm front to overcome those cold lake waters, unless of course the actual jet stream is well to the NW of us. You can get some decent t'storms as that warm air overrides the colder air, but it's also not common to get severe weather from those particular t'storms thanks to the subsequent inversion cap that forms. I'd say mid-May is when the severe weather chances improve for us. I wasn't talking about severe. It's just that thundershowers > boring showers. If there's a decent chance of decent lightning I'd like to see a lightning bolt on the outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I'll be on the interstate driving into oncoming traffic if you need me 37F and it finally stopped raining...maybe we'll bump up a few degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 61F in Prairie Du Chien now... warm front somewhere between us and them... ahh poop..maybe we'll see the sun tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Author Share Posted April 14, 2013 Warm front so close, but yet so far way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Author Share Posted April 14, 2013 61F in Prairie Du Chien now... warm front somewhere between us and them... ahh poop..maybe we'll see the sun tomorrow. It is near DeSoto. 50 there. Looks like rain is going to stop the front's progress north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Geos- Having talked to Saukville for many years, that is pretty common or at least it would seem..its like the warm front bends around L Michigan... All i know is being over here sucks bananas...next week shows teh same setup, but you look to torch some and i'll be in the freezer again. Really looks like next weekend shows a definite shift to milder air around here...we need to leaf out some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2013 Author Share Posted April 14, 2013 DLL - yeah the leaf out seems like it's taking forever this spring. Probably because it was so early last spring. If the lake wasn't there I'm sure the warm front would sweep further north and you'd be nearer to the warm front if not south of it at this point. I remember last spring a few times you mentioned the east winds were cooling your area off - and you're about 175 miles away from the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I wasn't talking about severe. It's just that thundershowers > boring showers. If there's a decent chance of decent lightning I'd like to see a lightning bolt on the outlook. Fair enough, I agree with that. FWIW, the actual text forecast does include thunderstorms, but it just implies a chance of it. Given the uncertainty of the storm track and frontal placement, that's a fair forecast this far out. Where the low pressure center tracks and the fronts set up will be key in determining how far north enough instability can get for t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I saw a few snowflakes this morning around 6 am while walking the dog. My thermo now reads 72F. What a day! Heading to Denver tomorrow. Point says 5-8 " of snow by Tuesday morning. Talk about whiplash. I feel the flu coming on already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 It has been in the 70s here all afternoon, although I've mostly been inside watching The Masters. The line of rain/storms over Iowa isn't too impressive. It's mostly just a general area of rain. The air is pretty dry around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Forecast high was 65 here in Battle Creek... Made 53 and temp is quickly falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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