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April 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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High of 79 at LAF. Not going to make it.

 

Topped out at 80.5º at KTIM. 77º inside my place right now. Summer has arrived. :(

 

I really thought that you guys would make it and we wouldn't. We must have gotten some sun.

 

FWA is the new LAF. 

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I really thought that you guys would make it and we wouldn't. We must have gotten some sun.

A tad less in the way of clouds probably would've done it considering some areas did make it. IND made it for the first time this year...it's almost a month later compared to last year.

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TWN is now calling for 6-8" of snow on Thurs  :whistle:

 

The EC special weather statement only calls for 20-50mm of rain, but twn is calling for up to 75mm and the GRCA is calling for 75-00mm, plus models over 3" here. Is EC low-balling rainfall amounts?

 

Definitely a bit of a stretch by TWN. I'm thinking 1-3" on the backside of the system after the ZR is done.

 

As for rainfall, EC has issued some rainfall warnings for SW ON for 50-80mm. I'm thinking thats a pretty good call. The 100mm by GRCA seems a bit high to me.

 

EDIT: MNR is throwing out amounts of 120-140mm  :weenie:

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Winds are blowing 180 degrees the other direction from a few hours ago.  Stratus clouds are quickly developing/moving quickly overhead.  Temp down almost 20 degrees already to 54.  So long warmth, see you in a week or two.  Glad we didn't have to sit in the freezer all day and at least got one last nice day.

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Lots of Winter Storm Watches and Rainfall Warnings issued for southern Ontario. Winter Storm Watches extend east to west in a line from Grand Bend to Hamilton, north to a line extending from Oshawa to Kincardine. Rainfall Warnings for all south of that. EC seems to be primarily concerned with ice pellets and freezing rain.

 

By the way, any Ontario posters remember the last time we had any sort of winter weather advisory for mid-April? The only time I remember a significant storm occurring so late was the late-April 2005 snow bonanza, and I don't remember what kind of warnings were associated with that.

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IND made it for the first time this year...it's almost a month later compared to last year.

 

10th earliest occurrence of an 80º temp at IND, since 1980.

 

Earliest on this list was March 13, 2007...latest was June 5, 1983. 

 

2013: April 9 (80º)

2012: March 14 (81º) 

2011: April 10 (83º)

2010: April 1 (82º)

2009: April 24 (84º)

2008: April 23 (82º)

2007: March 13 (80º)

2006: April 13 (82º)

2005: April 10 (80º)

2004: March 28 (80º)

2003: April 15 (81º)

2002: April 15 (84º)

2001: April 7 (83º)

2000: May 5 (81º)

1999: May 4 (80º)

1998: March 29 (80º)

1997: May 18 (84º)

1996: May 9 (82º)

1995: May 9 (80º)

1994: April 18 (80º)

1993: May 7 (80º)

1992: May 1 (83º)

1991: May 11 (83º)

1990: April 23 (81º)

1989: April 25 (83º)

1988: April 5 (84º)

1987: April 20 (82º)

1986: March 30 (82º)

1985: April 18 (81º)

1984: April 26 (83º)

1983: June 5 (80º)

1982: April 15 (80º)

1981: March 31 (85º)

1980: April 22 (85º)

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Lots of Winter Storm Watches and Rainfall Warnings issued for southern Ontario. Winter Storm Watches extend east to west in a line from Grand Bend to Hamilton, north to a line extending from Oshawa to Kincardine. Rainfall Warnings for all south of that. EC seems to be primarily concerned with ice pellets and freezing rain.

 

By the way, any Ontario posters remember the last time we had any sort of winter weather advisory for mid-April? The only time I remember a significant storm occurring so late was the late-April 2005 snow bonanza, and I don't remember what kind of warnings were associated with that.

 

April 2003 ice storm was the last siggy winter storm in April I recall locally. Both the early and late April 2005 storm were duds in Toronto. That being said, the 2003 ice storm was right at the beginning of April. April 11-12, when this is supposed to occur, is pushing the envelope a bit.

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What a difference a yr makes.  Last February and March we had 5 days with highs of 32 or below..  This yr Feb/March have had 27 days 32 or below for a high.  15 in Feb and 12 in March.  24 days this March had highs in the 20 &30's.

 

Last yr at this time we had already had racked up 18 days above 60 with 8 of them in the 70's and 80's.. This yr we've had 1 day above 60 and that was 61 on April 6th.  Since October 10th 2012 we've only had 10 days above 60 compared to 32 last yr.

 

From Dec 2011 through April 10th 2012 there were 34 days above 50...  This yr there has been 12 which is still about double over average.

 

Doubt I'll ever see another March in SE WI that had as good of snow cover keeping weather as this March did.

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April 2003 ice storm was the last siggy winter storm in April I recall locally. Both the early and late April 2005 storm were duds in Toronto. That being said, the 2003 ice storm was right at the beginning of April. April 11-12, when this is supposed to occur, is pushing the envelop a bit.

The SREF,GFS and GGEM  have very significant PL/ZR for the GTA. The euro maps from accupro have temps hovering just above the 0c mark. I'm skeptical as to how cold it will get at the surface especially when models have been too cold in marginal situations this winter. Any thoughts on ice accums in the GTA?

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The SREF,GFS and GGEM  have very significant PL/ZR for the GTA. The euro maps from accupro have temps hovering just above the 0c mark. I'm skeptical as to how cold it will get at the surface especially when models have been too cold in marginal situations this winter. Any thoughts on ice accums in the GTA?

 

I'd have to think ZR is going to have a tough time accumulating during the day time on Thursday. It did back on April 4, 2003 but temps were well below freezing that day (-3 to -4c). Even the coldest, and likely wrong, NAM has temps only around -1 to -1.5c.

 

I think the biggest concerns will be: a possible shot of SN/PL early Thursday (with accums) and then significant ice accums Thursday night if cold air can't be scoured out. Maybe more than 1/2-3/4 of an inch of ice, especially on elevated sfcs Thursday night. But if the sfc low ends up moving on top of us and sfc winds turn southerly, it may just end up being a cold rain. 

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Doesn't look too warm at Wrigley. Game time reported temp of 41. Lots of empty seats, to say nothing of the product on the field of course. Regardless, dumb of the Cubs to schedule home night games in early April. Tomorrow night may be worse, if they don't get rained out.

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What a difference a yr makes. Last February and March we had 5 days with highs of 32 or below.. This yr Feb/March have had 27 days 32 or below for a high. 15 in Feb and 12 in March. 24 days this March had highs in the 20 &30's.

Last yr at this time we had already had racked up 18 days above 60 with 8 of them in the 70's and 80's.. This yr we've had 1 day above 60 and that was 61 on April 6th. Since October 10th 2012 we've only had 10 days above 60 compared to 32 last yr.

From Dec 2011 through April 10th 2012 there were 34 days above 50... This yr there has been 12 which is still about double over average.

Doubt I'll ever see another March in SE WI that had as good of snow cover keeping weather as this March did.

Look at you busting out all these stats. :D

This March was awesome. Almost got as much snow as I did all of last winter. I'll remember it fondly.

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