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April 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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I still believe Minnesota made a huge mistake in building that park without a roof.  If it was covered, they could have used it for other functions in the winter...  don't get it (yeah..i know $$$, but still...they are losing money every year with cold/snow/rain/etc)....  April and even May in Minneapolis is no guarantee..  last year was a fluke, not to happen again for a long time...this year=reality...i think

 

0z GFS still wants to bring down a bunch of cold air late in the run...  not sure if i make 50F or not on this run.

I'm not a fan of roofs. I hate postponements like anyone else, but in the end, make em play in the elements! Outdoor baseball in Minneapolis is actually not that different in Apr/May than in Chicago, Detroit, or Cleveland (with no roofs). I remember a baseball game in April 2005 against the twins/Tigers at Comerica where the field was covered in a thick blanket of late-April snow (and of course ppd) and it was sunny and in the 60s in Minneapolis.

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I'm not a fan of roofs. I hate postponements like anyone else, but in the end, make em play in the elements! Outdoor baseball in Minneapolis is actually not that different in Apr/May than in Chicago, Detroit, or Cleveland (with no roofs). I remember a baseball game in April 2005 against the twins/Tigers at Comerica where the field was covered in a thick blanket of late-April snow (and of course ppd) and it was sunny and in the 60s in Minneapolis.

Yeah..but baby Jesus Joe Mauer doesn't work in temps below 75F...his hands get too cold

 

April looking like a turd the 1st week or more...  GFS hints at nothing warm in the long range.

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MI has had a much longer violent tornado drought than any other state in the region. It is only a matter of time before that shoe drops. MI hasn't had a F4-5 tornado since 1977 however from 1950 to 1977 there were 17 F4-5 tornadoes in Michigan.

 

Wow. 

 

Southern Ontario had five F4 tornadoes 1950-1977 (all in 1953 apparently), five F4 tornadoes 1978-1985, and no F4's since 1985. Considering the rarity of F4 tornadoes in this area I'd say an F3 is a more likely violent tornado, and even then Southern Ontario has only had four of them since 1990. One in 1990, two in 1996, and one in 2011. 

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This spring reminds me of the start of winter. We would see a cool down on the long range and the closer that period got, the cool down would morph into a warm-up.

 

Now, every single warmup on the long range GFS ends up being a cool period. If only we can get something to show up under 7 days out.

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Yeah..but baby Jesus Joe Mauer doesn't work in temps below 75F...his hands get too cold

 

April looking like a turd the 1st week or more...  GFS hints at nothing warm in the long range.

 

The tigers are very Latin heavy on the roster, typically they perform poorly in the cold.

 

I know Josh has already started thinking about it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers start the season off quite slowly.

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Projecting an average March temp of 35.4º for Indianapolis, and rolling forward to April for all the years that were in the 34.4º to 36.4º range.

 

Four were warmer, four were colder, and the rest were "around normal" (1º within normal, either way). I'll narrow things when this month is over.

 

1877: 52.9º

1926: 45.6º

1900: 52.9º

1934: 52.1º

1891: 55.4º

1915: 58.0º

1924: 53.4º

1996: 49.3º

1969: 54.0º

1943: 47.7º

1958: 52.2º

1883: 53.6º

1888: 53.0º

1896: 60.0º

1980: 49.1º

1890: 53.7º

1941: 59.0º

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The long range has been horrible, if you look at the teleconnections they are as accurate as flipping a coin everyday to decide what is going to be + or -.  I think the changing season, along with a potential pattern change from this long term blocking means that we will see a lot of differences day to day in the long term forecasts for a couple weeks still. 

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Just looking through the GFS and it really doesn't look too good...shows a warm up around the 6th and every other hour looks to avg below normal...and becomes cold again at the end of the run....

GFS has been jumping around in the long range like crazy.  Ensembles though consistently break down the block...  And i wish i could lock in the EURO at the end of its run

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you know you roll your mouse over to the 240 hour euro panel from time to time

It's not like I don't look. :lol:

But man, accuracy really goes in the crapper past day 6 on the op Euro, GFS, etc. I just get the sense that some think the 252 hour map of the 6z GFS is gonna verify.

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It's not like I don't look. :lol:

But man, accuracy really goes in the crapper past day 6 on the op Euro, GFS, etc. I just get the sense that some think the 252 hour map of the 6z GFS is gonna verify.

I think they are semi-useful to look at general patterns etc. but even that can be screwed up.

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I'm amazed that people look at, and actually believe/buy into, operational models past day 7.   :arrowhead: I mean, they struggle 24 hours out from a storm sometimes.

 

 

It's not like I don't look. :lol:

But man, accuracy really goes in the crapper past day 6 on the op Euro, GFS, etc. I just get the sense that some think the 252 hour map of the 6z GFS is gonna verify.

 

 

I think they are semi-useful to look at general patterns etc. but even that can be screwed up.

 

lol. I just posted about the GFS op in the long term thread right before I read this. I am not saying that anything is gonna verify, but it has been showing something, along with a dump of cold air around the 10th. Just watching what it's idea of the general pattern may be.

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I really like the NAEFS...  not sure how it is produced, but to me it seems to be pretty good at indicating what is likely going to happen (cold/hot)....  Like if its blazing hot red for a few runs, i can usually figure its going to be above normal for at least part of that time period and probably much above..same for dark blues...

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