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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs II


stormtracker

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cheers mates

 

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   FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF UPLIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE   ACROSS NRN VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...AND SRN NJ THROUGH LATE   MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROUNDING   BASE OF THE ELONGATING UPR TROUGH. SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL   SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...BUT LOW-LVL THERMAL PROFILES   LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MOST   PARTS OF THE CSTL PLN...AND EVEN OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE   PIEDMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH RATES UP TO AND LOCALLY IN EXCESS   OF 1 IN/HR MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE BLUE   RIDGE OF NRN VA/MD AND S CNTRL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF SE PA...MD AND   VA JUST W AND NW OF PHILADELPHIA...BALTIMORE...AND DC. THIS ACTIVITY   SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
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AS I WAS SAYING...

Don't give up folks! The EC in particular CONSISTENTLY pegged that 07-09Z to 15-17Z timeframe over the metro region...along with convective enhancement through 12Z-ish with zero to slightly negative theta-e lapse rates btwn 700-500 mb. This will get buried under all the "ohh and ahh" threads later this AM but peeps need to know that the 00-12Z EC from yesterday kicked ass with this event comparatively, for the DC-Balt metro region, and that includes the 2-4" into the RIC area through 00Z!

As the old saying goes, don't give up on a forecast even when you want to bail. Let it age like a fine wine! :-)

 

I should have been listening to you and the other experts who were saying not to give up!  It's just been such a bad run that I didn't believe it could happen.  I am shocked and happy.

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