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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs II


stormtracker

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Radar says I'm under a green band.

 

Rates say I'm under yellow tho. Over 2 inches on car top and over an inch on roads. BIG flakes falling - I don't even need lights to see em. I hope they plow that snow up into HUGE, HUGE piles. Then I will go on an EPIC, EPIC jebwalk!!

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It's too early to give up on the 1-3" possibility for DC metro. The EC, which did pretty well with the 3/6 storm in terms of the QPF (much lighter with the front side WAA compared to the NCEP runs) as well at the low level BL, has for several runs painted about 1-3" in the metro region between 6-18Z (though the reality is probably closer to 09-15Z). Obviously, the Miller B transfers are always a tough call, as inevitably the dry slotting in between the occluding OH Vly low and coastal low is often poorly modeled -- at least it has been of late by the NCEP runs (which continue to be too wet). But lo and behold, the EC remained committed with 1-3" late tonight and during the early-mid morning for the metro region, before the sun angle would get in the way of accumulations. This model also showed 2-4" pivoting into central VA with the WAA earlier. We (okay, "I") did not buy into this because I had thought the BL would be too warm to overcome during the daylight hours). Oops.

At any event, I'm still giving the 12Z EC a chance given it's track record and considering the BL temps aren't as marginal compared to 3/6. Time will tell..

AS I WAS SAYING...

Don't give up folks! The EC in particular CONSISTENTLY pegged that 07-09Z to 15-17Z timeframe over the metro region...along with convective enhancement through 12Z-ish with zero to slightly negative theta-e lapse rates btwn 700-500 mb. This will get buried under all the "ohh and ahh" threads later this AM but peeps need to know that the 00-12Z EC from yesterday kicked ass with this event comparatively, for the DC-Balt metro region, and that includes the 2-4" into the RIC area through 00Z!

As the old saying goes, don't give up on a forecast even when you want to bail. Let it age like a fine wine! :-)

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