hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Seriously, DT is really a jerk to people. Espicailly calling other meteorogits "weenies" he's the real weenie. Look at his forecast. 3-6 inches. I would bet him quite a bit that busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NAM doesn't handle coastal transfers very well. NAM doesnt handle anything very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Why is everyone getting pessimistic suddenly? Anyone who ever seriously expected more than 1-2 inches in DC was crazy.The coastal has yet to crank. Round one was never expected to be big. I'm sticking (no pun intended) with 1-2 for DC, with 3-4 northwest suburbs, with 20% chance of bust, 10% chance of boom, and then north east along the coast, 4-5 inches with 30% chance of boom, 30% chance of bust. Not real confident. Pretty complex set up. We've all seen this many times before. You suddenly appeared in this subforum in the past few days so perhaps you don't have the necessary context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Are those uberbands in west virginia snow? What are the rates? Most be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Are those uberbands in west virginia snow? What are the rates? Most be insane. Looks like most of it is rain tho the ob network is sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 We've all seen this many times before. You suddenly appeared in this subforum in the past few days so perhaps you don't have the necessary context. I have the neccasary contex. Been tracking this since it was a blip on the 384 GFS. (The true confessions of a snow weenie ) I just maybe have other things to do than click the "refresh" button every 30 seconds all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'd consider 2" a boom in DC. Getting past that would be tricky unless all the guidance is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 NAM doesnt handle anything very well espicially weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'd consider 2" a boom in DC. Getting past that would be tricky unless all the guidance is wrong. still think you are being too pessimistic, but you almost certanily know this better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowmanChief Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'm a longtime lurker that loves every aspect of the forum, just want you guys to get a little more excited about this last hurrah! Radar is starting to fill in and the timing is perfect. No worries about rain with temps already in low-mid 30s. We'll probably see stickage with just light-mod snow. 1-2" seems like a good possibility inside the beltway by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I'm a longtime lurker that loves every aspect of the forum, just want you guys to get a little more excited about this last hurrah! Radar is starting to fill in and the timing is perfect. No worries about rain with temps already in low-mid 30s. We'll probably see stickage with just light-mod snow. 1-2" seems like a good possibility inside the beltway by morning. Welcome, glad to hear you speak up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Bob have you whipped out the scotch or the Prozac?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Bob have you whipped out the scotch or the Prozac?. You've got to wonder how people who aren't posting are reacting to the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 All I want is to beat the coating to half an inch I got from snowquester. Seems easily within reach. ( I live in Bethesda, just barely northwest of DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I've felt the the same for days. Some enhanced precip before dawn that might get me an inch or 2. Then some bonus daytime flakes that look nice but don't add up. If dynamics with the Ull go a little better than expected them maybe someone nearby sees something similar to ric this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 You've got to wonder how people who aren't posting are reacting to the events. Matt (Zwyts) is probably hitting a piñata with DT's picture all over the place. Mitch is probably drinking heavily and telling himself I should have remained pessimistic Mitch. Phin is telling himself he is the best forecaster outside of Wes in the country. Randy is also drinking heavily telling himself he should have moved to LA, he would have seen the same amount of snow and he could have chased Tyson Beckford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Matt (Zwyts) is probably hitting a piñata with DT's picture all over the place. Mitch is probably drinking heavily and telling himself I should have remained pessimistic Mitch. Phin is telling himself he is the best forecaster outside of Wes in the country. Randy is also drinking heavily telling himself he should have moved to LA, he would have seen the same amount of snow and he could have chased Tyson Beckford. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 DCA 36/32 with a SE wind. Well, that'c below normal for a low this late in the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 If one more person mentioned 1-2" for DC, I'm going 6-10". I really hope they get 0" or 6-10" so I can laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 DCA 36/32 with a SE wind. Well, that'c below normal for a low this late in the month.. Were the winds ever supposed to be out of the SE?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Sooooo.... Bob, you are predicting snow to not stick to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Matt (Zwyts) is probably hitting a piñata with DT's picture all over the place. Mitch is probably drinking heavily and telling himself I should have remained pessimistic Mitch. Phin is telling himself he is the best forecaster outside of Wes in the country. Randy is also drinking heavily telling himself he should have moved to LA, he would have seen the same amount of snow and he could have chased Tyson Beckford. This is an insanely awesome post, my curiosity no longer exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's too early to give up on the 1-3" possibility for DC metro. The EC, which did pretty well with the 3/6 storm in terms of the QPF (much lighter with the front side WAA compared to the NCEP runs) as well at the low level BL, has for several runs painted about 1-3" in the metro region between 6-18Z (though the reality is probably closer to 09-15Z). Obviously, the Miller B transfers are always a tough call, as inevitably the dry slotting in between the occluding OH Vly low and coastal low is often poorly modeled -- at least it has been of late by the NCEP runs (which continue to be too wet). But lo and behold, the EC remained committed with 1-3" late tonight and during the early-mid morning for the metro region, before the sun angle would get in the way of accumulations. This model also showed 2-4" pivoting into central VA with the WAA earlier. We (okay, "I") did not buy into this because I had thought the BL would be too warm to overcome during the daylight hours). Oops. At any event, I'm still giving the 12Z EC a chance given it's track record and considering the BL temps aren't as marginal compared to 3/6. Time will tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 This is an insanely awesome post, my curiosity no longer exists. Glad I could help, now get me some snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's too early to give up on the 1-3" possibility for DC metro. The EC, which did pretty well with the 3/6 storm in terms of the QPF (much lighter with the front side WAA compared to the NCEP runs) as well at the low level BL, has for several runs painted about 1-3" in the metro region between 6-18Z (though the reality is probably closer to 09-15Z). Obviously, the Miller B transfers are always a tough call, as inevitably the dry slotting in between the occluding OH Vly low and coastal low is often poorly modeled -- at least it has been of late by the NCEP runs (which continue to be too wet). But lo and behold, the EC remained committed with 1-3" late tonight and during the early-mid morning for the metro region, before the sun angle would get in the way of accumulations. This model also showed 2-4" pivoting into central VA with the WAA earlier. We (okay, "I") did not buy into this because I had thought the BL would be too warm to overcome during the daylight hours). Oops. At any event, I'm still giving the 12Z EC a chance given it's track record and considering the BL temps aren't as marginal compared to 3/6. Time will tell.. I know you know this but Miller B's work out less than 10% of the time around here, hence all the pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 OT, but when is the last time we had a Miller A? Seems like Miller B after Miller B since Feb. 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I know you know this but Miller B's work out less than 10% of the time around here, hence all the pessimism. Yes. Which is why I had to turn a blind eye to most of the model output over the last several days, not just the NCEP either (including the UKMet and CMC). The EC gave us next to nothing for the 3/6 event, at least after we (WPC) locally derived EC snow accumulations based on the dominant p-type and adjusted SLR. This "derived" output from the EC (not the raw model snow accumulation) gave NOTHING along and west of I-95 from DC into MD during 3/6. This same algorithm is giving those same areas 1-2, perhaps 1-3" over the area, with 4" amounts over the higher terrain W-SW toward FDK and IAD between 06Z and 18Z...the majority of which would fall between 09-15Z. Obviously, this was banking on the reformed CCB, which is always precarious for the DC area, as we're so accustomed to seeing it redevelop farther E-NE. *IF IF IF* only we can get that QPF in here after 06Z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The upper level low is barely moving. I'm about to toss in the towel. I don't see much happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I predict I wake up to some patchy slush and drizzle with a rapidly drying radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The upper level low is barely moving. I'm about to toss in the towel. I don't see much happening The ULL not catching up the support makes it awfully hard for an efficient energy transfer to the secondary forming off of the OB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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