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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs II


stormtracker

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

Well said - where I doubted most - they got more - where I doubted least, they did what the models thought! So I busted in many spots to the south and anything from the city east!

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We all went too low.  Basically going with groupthink about sun angle, etc.   And let me state in no uncertain terms...sun angle matters.  A lot.   But it always gets overplayed and I was guilty of it too.  

 

 

It matters, when your flakes suck.

 

We had coverage on grass with about  .7 . 8 per hour yesterday. Once it reach .10, roads got covered and FAST. That also was the same time we got better crystal growth-- 

Peaked out at 3 inches on black top at 5 pm yesterday. 

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

So if you made a forecast based on doubt, then you made a smart forecast that busted. But if you made a forecast that followed the models pretty closely, then you made a dumb forecast that didn't bust.

I'm a cynic and all, but I don't think I agree with that logic.

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It matters, when your flakes suck.

 

We had coverage on grass with about  .7 . 8 per hour yesterday. Once it reach .10, roads got discovered and FAST. That also was the same time we got better crystal growth-- 

Peaked out at 3 inches on black top at 5 pm yesterday. 

 

Yes, that's why I said it matters.  

 

But heavy rates trump all.  

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

 

 

Local TV met and I chat a lot-- he feels bad.  My comment- No shame in missing biggest event in 42 years in LYH in spring. I'm a snow biased hobbyist and I wasn't willing to budge on my 1-3 call. 

 

Hard call, and really unique development with miler B, SLP that peaked at 996 for a while near ILM, back off and formed late when ULL enhanced it. It wasn't a normal Miller B. 

 

Wxman1 gave some good 411 and he's got the BEST access with the SLR adjustment they do the Euro. 

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So if you made a forecast based on doubt, then you made a smart forecast that busted. But if you made a forecast that followed the models pretty closely, then you made a dumb forecast that didn't bust.

I'm a cynic and all, but I don't think I agree with that logic.

 

The bullish folks still get kudos...I didn't have the balls to forecast 2-5" on March 25th based on 0.35" of liquid

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So if you made a forecast based on doubt, then you made a smart forecast that busted. But if you made a forecast that followed the models pretty closely, then you made a dumb forecast that didn't bust.

I'm a cynic and all, but I don't think I agree with that logic.

The models were still often too snowy even without snow maps. These anomalous events are always going to be hard if you think about it. It's mostly the people who never make forecasts who get annoyed with forecasts that aren't perfect.
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The models were still often too snowy even without snow maps. These anomalous events are always going to be hard if you think about it. It's mostly the people who never make forecasts who get annoyed with forecasts that aren't perfect.

 

I don't know the first thing about forecastig (or really all that much about weather), so I couldn't put out a forecast worth a doggie diamond.

 

But I think I know enough to say that it'd be a pretty tough forecast to make this time of the year.  And in thinking more about it, I suppose I can see zwyts's argument that a discussion of the general verifications wouldn't be too terribly helpful.

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The models were still often too snowy even without snow maps. These anomalous events are always going to be hard if you think about it. It's mostly the people who never make forecasts who get annoyed with forecasts that aren't perfect.

 

"Nailing" ones like this are part luck. I don't care how much experience someone has.. Give any experienced met this setup this time of year ten times in a row and see what their batting average is. 500 at best. 

 

I felt good about 1-3 from 95 west and I busted low but who cares. We got some really good rates over a relatively small geographic area at the perfect time on morning. We got  lucky. If the best rates held off for 3 hours then chop totals in half or worse. 

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