mattie g Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The models were still often too snowy even without snow maps. These anomalous events are always going to be hard if you think about it. It's mostly the people who never make forecasts who get annoyed with forecasts that aren't perfect. I don't know the first thing about forecastig (or really all that much about weather), so I couldn't put out a forecast worth a doggie diamond. But I think I know enough to say that it'd be a pretty tough forecast to make this time of the year. And in thinking more about it, I suppose I can see zwyts's argument that a discussion of the general verifications wouldn't be too terribly helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 The models were still often too snowy even without snow maps. These anomalous events are always going to be hard if you think about it. It's mostly the people who never make forecasts who get annoyed with forecasts that aren't perfect. "Nailing" ones like this are part luck. I don't care how much experience someone has.. Give any experienced met this setup this time of year ten times in a row and see what their batting average is. 500 at best. I felt good about 1-3 from 95 west and I busted low but who cares. We got some really good rates over a relatively small geographic area at the perfect time on morning. We got lucky. If the best rates held off for 3 hours then chop totals in half or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 nice...you beat 3/6 Yeah, more snow this March at my house than the past two D-F combined (9.0" vs 6.6"). Also, this storm pushes me past 2010-11 (12.5" vs 11.7"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Here is a great gallery of listener submitted pix from throughout the Shenandoah Valley... http://www.kiss983.com/cc-common/gallery/photos.html?album_id=347477 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Nice burst of snow developing over Frederick / NW Moco and into Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Now the bigger flakes coming in. Very pretty Not a bad morning with this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 That band over the Potomac north of DC looks like it's getting its act together. Any one have obs? It's also getting its act together over Eastern FFX county, Arlington, Alexandria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Is that really the policy?...I'm not sure all airports do that No, the way its supposed to be measured is you take the max depth in that 6 hour period. You aren't supposed to wait for it to compact and report that at obs time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 More heavier light snow in Alexandria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Yellows popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 "Nailing" ones like this are part luck. I don't care how much experience someone has.. Give any experienced met this setup this time of year ten times in a row and see what their batting average is. 500 at best. I felt good about 1-3 from 95 west and I busted low but who cares. We got some really good rates over a relatively small geographic area at the perfect time on morning. We got lucky. If the best rates held off for 3 hours then chop totals in half or worse. Good thing Wes stayed out of this one. No reason to blemish a nearly prfect record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 "Nailing" ones like this are part luck. I don't care how much experience someone has.. Give any experienced met this setup this time of year ten times in a row and see what their batting average is. 500 at best. I felt good about 1-3 from 95 west and I busted low but who cares. We got some really good rates over a relatively small geographic area at the perfect time on morning. We got lucky. If the best rates held off for 3 hours then chop totals in half or worse. Bust on March 6th and anti-bust on March 25th. Everyone was gunshy after that epic bust. Understandably so. I think telling folks 1-3" was the safest thing, but it was certainly a low confidence forecast no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Yellows popping up. Yay for Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Yellows popping up. Great view of the development and pivot on that if you go to 200 time steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yay for Chicago? For some reason it always defaults to Chicago. Change location silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Good thing Wes stayed out of this one. No reason to blemish a nearly prfect record. For the sake of objectivity he did say yesterday morning that it would not be much, maybe a few inches in the suburbs. Even the greatest can be wrong once in a while. Forecasting is almost as tough as hitting a baseball and the greatest hit 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I saw some people live in the Thunder Hill/Oakland Mills neighborhood in Columbia? Didn't know I lived near anyone on the board. Haha. 4 inches here! Beautiful day in Columbia! Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Bust on March 6th and anti-bust on March 25th. Everyone was gunshy after that epic bust. Understandably so. I think telling folks 1-3" was the safest thing, but it was certainly a <b>low confidence forecast</b> no matter what. And this, to me, is NWS's biggest failing, at least here at AKQ where I read the AFDs on a semi-regular basis.. They are either unable or unwilling to discuss uncertainties and confidence levels and competing scenarios in AFDs. They're discussions. It's okay if they're longer than normal when you're not sure. But give me both sides of the coin. Don't say "it's gonna rain, buuuuuutttt.... we're really not sure"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 That seems way low to me....were you in Falls Church yet? Yeah, 7" of that came from the Jan storm, otherwise it was pretty lame. Honestly, today and 3/6 are the first times in the 4 years here that the elevation difference (466') has really paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 6.25 total in Charlottesville. Still coming down lightly with a wrap around band forming overhead on the radar. Don't expect any more accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 For some reason it always defaults to Chicago. Change location silly. I did. That band looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 LOL that bands going to smoke DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 WWA cancelled with now some of the heaviest snow all morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 LOL that bands going to smoke DC Days and days of non accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Great view of the development and pivot on that if you go to 200 time steps. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 25, 2013 Author Share Posted March 25, 2013 Days and days of non accumulating snow But remember, it's pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 But remember, it's pretty to look at.I'm hoping we hold snowcover till after lunch downtown. On to the April HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Nice 30DBZ showing in the band over the area - Snowing nice here, but that stuff is literally 2 miles to my east and looks heavier!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Changed to rain in dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 That 2.1 measurement for BWI must be wrong. I've got 4 here and am only 10 miles south of the airport. Not necessarily. I've got 1.4 inches and I'm 10 miles north of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.