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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs II


stormtracker

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Definite pivot going on. Band in moco is picking up and new band forming between dc and lwx.

 

 

You can really see that band trying to fill in on mitch's radar (http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/lwx/flashklwxmetrobr.php).  I'm absolutely dying to see how much I have on the ground at home right now.  I'd imagine we were 3.5-4", but compaction has surely taken its toll now.  If we get banded, maybe we could squeeze out just enough to get solidly into the 4" range.

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I can't do any back patting. My guesses were way too low, especially DC-Balt

 

We all went too low.  Basically going with groupthink about sun angle, etc.   And let me state in no uncertain terms...sun angle matters.  A lot.   But it always gets overplayed and I was guilty of it too.  

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You can really see that band trying to fill in on mitch's radar (http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/lwx/flashklwxmetrobr.php).  I'm absolutely dying to see how much I have on the ground at home right now.  I'd imagine we were 3.5-4", but compaction has surely taken its toll now.  If we get banded, maybe we could squeeze out just enough to get solidly into the 4" range.

 

Pretty safe estimate...consistent with other measurements in your neck of the woods.

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

Well said - where I doubted most - they got more - where I doubted least, they did what the models thought! So I busted in many spots to the south and anything from the city east!

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We all went too low.  Basically going with groupthink about sun angle, etc.   And let me state in no uncertain terms...sun angle matters.  A lot.   But it always gets overplayed and I was guilty of it too.  

 

 

It matters, when your flakes suck.

 

We had coverage on grass with about  .7 . 8 per hour yesterday. Once it reach .10, roads got covered and FAST. That also was the same time we got better crystal growth-- 

Peaked out at 3 inches on black top at 5 pm yesterday. 

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

So if you made a forecast based on doubt, then you made a smart forecast that busted. But if you made a forecast that followed the models pretty closely, then you made a dumb forecast that didn't bust.

I'm a cynic and all, but I don't think I agree with that logic.

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It matters, when your flakes suck.

 

We had coverage on grass with about  .7 . 8 per hour yesterday. Once it reach .10, roads got discovered and FAST. That also was the same time we got better crystal growth-- 

Peaked out at 3 inches on black top at 5 pm yesterday. 

 

Yes, that's why I said it matters.  

 

But heavy rates trump all.  

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

 

 

Local TV met and I chat a lot-- he feels bad.  My comment- No shame in missing biggest event in 42 years in LYH in spring. I'm a snow biased hobbyist and I wasn't willing to budge on my 1-3 call. 

 

Hard call, and really unique development with miler B, SLP that peaked at 996 for a while near ILM, back off and formed late when ULL enhanced it. It wasn't a normal Miller B. 

 

Wxman1 gave some good 411 and he's got the BEST access with the SLR adjustment they do the Euro. 

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So if you made a forecast based on doubt, then you made a smart forecast that busted. But if you made a forecast that followed the models pretty closely, then you made a dumb forecast that didn't bust.

I'm a cynic and all, but I don't think I agree with that logic.

The models were still often too snowy even without snow maps. These anomalous events are always going to be hard if you think about it. It's mostly the people who never make forecasts who get annoyed with forecasts that aren't perfect.
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