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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs II


stormtracker

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Scary that a storm that was forecast to be "up to an inch" about equalled snow totals from the past two winters combined.

 

not if you understand the whims of forecasting particularly late season.  i think most of my personal thoughts were very good but i didn't think we'd get that kind of band thru the city so i went too low for my backyard.

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Is that really the policy?...I'm not sure all airports do that

 

i think so.. every 6 hours, i know the climo measurements come at 12z. 

 

the faa measures every hour which you see in metars but those are not noaa numbers. 

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not if you understand the whims of forecasting particularly late season.  i think most of my personal thoughts were very good but i didn't think we'd get that kind of band thru the city so i went too low for my backyard.

I think we did overplay the "will only stick to mulch and grass" angle a little. The roads were well-covered considering the late date. The rates aren't crazy, just solid moderate/heavy. Just goes to show 1 or 2 degrees makes all the difference. 

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Nice -- how much for the winter in Winchester?  It has to be one of the biggest differences seen between there and DCA in terms of total winter snowfall.

30.3" .... it's actually ripping pretty good right now again but compaction gonna make it tough to get anything "measurable"... 

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********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                                        SNOWFALL           OF                      /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT           ...FREDERICK COUNTY...   1 N WILDE ACRES        7.2   723 AM  3/25  NWS EMPLOYEE               7 SE WINCHESTER        5.0   700 AM  3/25  CO-OP OBSERVER             2 E STEPHENS CITY      5.0   610 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER            STEPHENS CITY          2.5   844 AM  3/25  TRAINED SPOTTER         

 

Trained spotter?  LMAO.  Where is he measuring at, the middle of I-81?

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I think we did overplay the "will only stick to mulch and grass" angle a little. The roads were well-covered considering the late date. The rates aren't crazy, just solid moderate/heavy. Just goes to show 1 or 2 degrees makes all the difference. 

maybe tho that's an argument both sides are adamant on their positions with. the sun this time of year matters.. we got like 2 hours of 30-40 dbz returns tho which overcomes any sfc warmth without much issue.  once you lay that down you can keep going with lighter rates if they are sustained.  as soon as the sun came up it was done here at least.

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Definite pivot going on. Band in moco is picking up and new band forming between dc and lwx.

 

 

You can really see that band trying to fill in on mitch's radar (http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/lwx/flashklwxmetrobr.php).  I'm absolutely dying to see how much I have on the ground at home right now.  I'd imagine we were 3.5-4", but compaction has surely taken its toll now.  If we get banded, maybe we could squeeze out just enough to get solidly into the 4" range.

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I can't do any back patting. My guesses were way too low, especially DC-Balt

 

We all went too low.  Basically going with groupthink about sun angle, etc.   And let me state in no uncertain terms...sun angle matters.  A lot.   But it always gets overplayed and I was guilty of it too.  

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Kudos to the people that got the forecast right...but I don't really see much reason for post-storm analysis...either you hugged teh models (which verified on the lower end for the most part) or you doubted them because it was almost April and they have been bad this winter....Was there really any reason the doubt wasn't warranted....Would it really have shocked people to wake up to non-accumulating or grassy <1" snow?

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You can really see that band trying to fill in on mitch's radar (http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/lwx/flashklwxmetrobr.php).  I'm absolutely dying to see how much I have on the ground at home right now.  I'd imagine we were 3.5-4", but compaction has surely taken its toll now.  If we get banded, maybe we could squeeze out just enough to get solidly into the 4" range.

 

Pretty safe estimate...consistent with other measurements in your neck of the woods.

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