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March 25th Storm: Debacle or Climo Defier? Discussion and Obs II


stormtracker

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Quite a scene out there. This storm has performed almost exactly as modeled. About as close as you can get really. I was laughing at all the deb's and cancelers last night when the snow that was never supposed to get here didn't get here and then the hallucinations of despair set in.

...except for the snow accumulation output. The NAM and GFS were way too generous. The EC on the other hand was much more on spot for the DC area and even with the 2-4 swath yesterday in RIC land.

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...except for the snow accumulation output. The NAM and GFS were way too generous. The EC on the other hand was much more on spot for the DC area and even with the 2-4 swath yesterday in RIC land.

You guys should share your algorithms because most of the public euro snow maps will be way off still

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...except for the snow accumulation output. The NAM and GFS were way too generous. The EC on the other hand was much more on spot for the DC area and even with the 2-4 swath yesterday in RIC land.

 

I don't even look at those to be honest. It's much more accurate to use a little common sense with rates, temps, soundings, etc. Snowmaps are silly. Except for 09-10 of course. 

 

Models did well with the 6-12z period irt to soundings and precip. That's pretty much the only period I focused on. Maybe somthing nutty happens this afternoon and we get heavy enough rates to keep up with the melt. 

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According to the PNS, DCA had recorded only a T as of 6:52am, so the streak remains for DCA at least.

 

the local mets are reporting we broke the streak of no 1" days so they must have passed that at least.

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According to the PNS, DCA had recorded only a T as of 6:52am, so the streak remains for DCA at least.

Nevermind, I was looking at the wrong one. That was as of 6:52PM yesterday. I was slightly confused as to how they could only record a T...just chalked it up to being DCA. Need some sleep I guess, sorry

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I never expected much more to be honest. Yea, if it was 5 degrees colder maybe but this is at least quite "memorable".

 

Nice pivot starting to show up. Maybe we get death banded later. 

 

I see that trying to get it done but doesn't seem likely.  Is that just your inner  :weenie:  coming out, or is it really possible?  :snowing:

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31.4F here in Clarksburg on calm winds.  2.2" on the board right now but the big meltdown has just commenced in the last 15 minutes with trees starting to drip and snow oozing down the sides of the cars.  Very similar to 3/6 when the sun peeked above the horizon.  Here's a couple of pics from Casa de das, side yard fisheye and front, respectively:

 

post-109-0-20216800-1364210775_thumb.jpg

 

post-109-0-71515800-1364210821_thumb.jpg

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I see that trying to get it done but doesn't seem likely.  Is that just your inner  :weenie:  coming out, or is it really possible?  :snowing:

 

It's more possible for ne md. maybe we get fringed. We usually get whiffed but since our luck seems to have tipped......

 

even if we did it would take RIC like rates to do anything because it would be afternoon. Not feeling it but I was pretty much focused on the overnight stuff. OVERPERFORMER

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I don't even look at those to be honest. It's much more accurate to use a little common sense with rates, temps, soundings, etc. Snowmaps are silly. Except for 09-10 of course.

-------------------------------------------------

The SLR-adjusted EC snow output we see at WPC, particularly at high res (quarter of a degree), are far from silly. Especially when we apply the in-house SLR adjustment. Obviously, we have to pay for it, and we certainly cannot share it, but it's money well spent. You'll just have to trust me on this. EDIT...that is ESPECIALLY the case with marginl BL temps!!

'Silly' was the 2-4" it pegged for the RIC area through 00Z yesterday, or so I thought. Or the fact that this output gave next to nothing along and east if i95 during 3/6, or so I thought..

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It's more possible for ne md. maybe we get fringed. We usually get whiffed but since our luck seems to have tipped......

 

even if we did it would take RIC like rates to do anything because it would be afternoon. Not feeling it but I was pretty much focused on the overnight stuff. OVERPERFORMER

 

It's funny that we refer to this as an over-performer.  Shouldn't it just be called a performer?  As in the first storm to actually perform similar to how it was modeled?  I'll tell you what, it feels pretty damn good to finally get something worth a damn.  My 18 month old actually get's to see the grass completely covered...... I didn't think that would ever happen.  :snowing:

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