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March 25th OBS Thread


Guest Patrick

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this is quite the lessons for the know-it-alls in this forum.

Lol you make it sound like folks here do not understand that the boundary layer could be an issue. Most folks here, even the hardest core snow weenie knows that on 3/25 if we did not get the best CCB action/dynamics we would not accumulate much if anything at all or even see anything frozen.

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At this point I would consider seeing one flake as a victory. We had flurries a few hours ago that lasted about 20 seconds. If you blinked you would have missed it.

Same here, that was probably the last snow of the season you saw

- I hope everyone comes back when there are sever threats in the summer

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I observe rain here in SE Nassau.

 

Objective question (not a whiny snow lover question - 10+years ago yes, but not anymore).. There have been at least four, maybe five events this year by my count, particularly since the big 2/8 event, in which the the NWS Upton snowfall maps, even right up to the onset of a given event, were calling for snowfall amounts, typically, 3, 4, 5, or 6 inch events, when the sense on this board was that the event would not materialize.  Is it because those maps represent some low probability, do they not take current conditions into account, or did they just have a streak of bad luck, or is the collective wisdom on this site just that impressive?  My take is that if not for the 2/8 event, the headline around here might be 'how many times is upton going to show 3-6 inches of snow and we end up with absolutely nothing?'

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I observe rain here in SE Nassau.

 

Objective question (not a whiny snow lover question - 10+years ago yes, but not anymore).. There have been at least four, maybe five events this year by my count, particularly since the big 2/8 event, in which the the NWS Upton snowfall maps, even right up to the onset of a given event, were calling for snowfall amounts, typically, 3, 4, 5, or 6 inch events, when the sense on this board was that the event would not materialize.  Is it because those maps represent some low probability, do they not take current conditions into account, or did they just have a streak of bad luck, or is the collective wisdom on this site just that impressive?  My take is that if not for the 2/8 event, the headline around here might be 'how many times is upton going to show 3-6 inches of snow and we end up with absolutely nothing?'

 

I can tell you that the maps on Upton's site are what they expect to happen.  I won't comment on the rest.

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Lol you make it sound like folks here do not understand that the boundary layer could be an issue. Most folks here, even the hardest core snow weenie knows that on 3/25 if we did not get the best CCB action/dynamics we would not accumulate much if anything at all or even see anything frozen.

there was always the chance this would happen...I was hoping for two inches and got a trace...one good analog for this March is 1965...on this date in 1965 NYC had a trace of wet snow with mostly rain...Temps mid to upper 30's...very similar to todays event...I remember walking back from bowling in the afternoon with light wet snow falling...

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there was always the chance this would happen...I was hoping for two inches and got a trace...one good analog for this March is 1965...on this date in 1965 NYC had a trace of wet snow with mostly rain...Temps mid to upper 30's...very similar to todays event...I remember walking back from bowling in the afternoon with light wet snow falling...

 

 

there was always the chance this would happen...I was hoping for two inches and got a trace...one good analog for this March is 1965...on this date in 1965 NYC had a trace of wet snow with mostly rain...Temps mid to upper 30's...very similar to todays event...I remember walking back from bowling in the afternoon with light wet snow falling...

Unc I know it is short notice, do you how this winter rates  temperature wise?

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Unc I know it is short notice, do you how this winter rates  temperature wise?

if you're using met winter 12/1 to 2/28-29 it was above average...If we use 11/1 to 4/30 it might end up average to below...

Averages for met winter...min temp...

2010-11..........32.7............6

2011-12..........40.5..........13

2012-13..........36.9..........11

ten yr. ave...

1870's.............31.5.........................

1880's.............30.8..........-0.5

1890's.............32.8...........2.3

1900's.............32.0...........3.7

1910's.............32.0...........1.4

1920's.............33.3...........3.8

1930's.............34.0...........4.9

1940's.............33.5...........4.7

1950's.............35.1...........6.0

1960's.............32.6...........4.1

1970's.............33.7...........5.4

1980's.............34.9...........4.1

1990's.............36.4...........6.7

2000's.............35.2...........9.7

2010's.............36.7.........10.0

1870-

2009................33.4...........4.3

1980-

2009................35.5...........6.8

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if you're using met winter 12/1 to 2/28-29 it was above average...If we use 11/1 to 4/30 it might end up average to below...

Averages for met winter...min temp...

2010-11..........32.7............6

2011-12..........40.5..........13

2012-13..........36.9..........11

ten yr. ave...

1870's.............31.5.........................

1880's.............30.8..........-0.5

1890's.............32.8...........2.3

1900's.............32.0...........3.7

1910's.............32.0...........1.4

1920's.............33.3...........3.8

1930's.............34.0...........4.9

1940's.............33.5...........4.7

1950's.............35.1...........6.0

1960's.............32.6...........4.1

1970's.............33.7...........5.4

1980's.............34.9...........4.1

1990's.............36.4...........6.7

2000's.............35.2...........9.7

2010's.............36.7.........10.0

1870-

2009................33.4...........4.3

1980-

2009................35.5...........6.8

Thanks

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I observe rain here in SE Nassau.

 

Objective question (not a whiny snow lover question - 10+years ago yes, but not anymore).. There have been at least four, maybe five events this year by my count, particularly since the big 2/8 event, in which the the NWS Upton snowfall maps, even right up to the onset of a given event, were calling for snowfall amounts, typically, 3, 4, 5, or 6 inch events, when the sense on this board was that the event would not materialize.  Is it because those maps represent some low probability, do they not take current conditions into account, or did they just have a streak of bad luck, or is the collective wisdom on this site just that impressive?  My take is that if not for the 2/8 event, the headline around here might be 'how many times is upton going to show 3-6 inches of snow and we end up with absolutely nothing?'

...i noticed that too...they were ALWAYS wrong..there #'s were always too high..

they had me @ 3.0 " for this event..barely got three flakes here in eastport.

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One of the WACKY ONES! I left Hofstra in central Nassau with rain and zip. Got home to South Wantagh 7 miles South East to a nice half inch coating on non paved surfaces.

 

Go South for snow North for rain tonight... (I know its all about rates, but still what a way to end the season in opposite land!) One of the few time I have ever seen this type of setup.

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One of the WACKY ONES! I left Hofstra in central Nassau with rain and zip. Got home to South Wantagh 7 miles South East to a nice half inch coating on non paved surfaces.

 

Go South for snow North for rain tonight... (I know its all about rates, but still what a way to end the season in opposite land!) One of the few time I have ever seen this type of setup.

 

Lol, 0.0" here.

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Lol you make it sound like folks here do not understand that the boundary layer could be an issue. Most folks here, even the hardest core snow weenie knows that on 3/25 if we did not get the best CCB action/dynamics we would not accumulate much if anything at all or even see anything frozen.

They don't - plain and simple

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