Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Getting nothing here but too be honest a total miss would be fine with me. It's March 25th and we've had an average season so far. 2/5/2010 hurt because 1) It was early February and 2) Places from Philly on south got hammered. Nobody is missing anything to great today. Yeah given the time of the year and the winter we've had I can't see to many people being overly upset about missing this one. Whether you get a dusting or 2" its going to be gone by tomorrow anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Coastal down to 989. Still moving slightly northward. That low is going to have to make it 75 miles further north at that lattitude to bring the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 34 and starting to snow again Yeah but this band that moved in is diffused most the heavier echoes actually moved westward into New Brunswick and Edison. Not looking hot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Snowing heavily now with that nice slow-moving band that's been moving through Middlesex/Somerset counties. Coating on all grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Water Vapor Loop showing the moisture still being tugged northward. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Coastal down to 989. Still moving slightly northward. That low is going to have to make it 75 miles further north at that lattitude to bring the goods. From the position of the low it really ridiculous that we aren't seeing more precip. Making it to nyc proper. I wish someone would explain how confluence works and how it's stomping all over our wanna be snowstorm, it's very frustrating having cold (enough) air , good low position , still not delivering though, anybody out there to explain confluence.? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's very simple, look at the water vapor loop. You can see the confluince from the ULL east of Maine pushing down on everything. The moisture tries to advect northward but hits a brick wall. Also there is some subsidence occuring as the deformation banding begins to take over offshore. This all translates to a bad combination for us. FWIW the latest HRRR continues to tick every so slightly furthern north. From the position of the low it really ridiculous that we aren't seeing more precip. Making it to nyc proper.I wish someone would explain how confluence works and how it's stomping all over our wanna be snowstorm, it's very frustrating having cold (enough) air , good low position , still not delivering though, anybody out there to explain confluence.? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Steady light to occasionally moderate snow continues to fall here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Just a slushy dusting in spots. Doesn't seem like it's accumulating anymore. Still great to see snow falling all day though this late in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Any accum left in Freehold? The Rt79 and 9 webcam looked like 1 or 2" after that heavy band went through this morning. Yea still measuring about 1/2" on cold surfaces, precip and flake size are starting to increase.. http://ne1-attach.ymail.com/us.f1205.mail.yahoo.com/ya/securedownload?mid=2_0_0_1_8000368_APNVimIAADo4UVB%2Fhw3nilaOYS8&pid=1&fid=Inbox&inline=1&cred=xI_J2HDUyDHakPm57czVL0Wyk_PNckYBISTKeTUjgyhSBkk-&ts=1364230114&partner=ymail&sig=Aaya2fXhX70IUbe7VOJJlQ-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 From the position of the low it really ridiculous that we aren't seeing more precip. Making it to nyc proper. I wish someone would explain how confluence works and how it's stomping all over our wanna be snowstorm, it's very frustrating having cold (enough) air , good low position , still not delivering though, anybody out there to explain confluence.? Thanks. Here's my hobbyist take on it: It is all about strength and positioning of all the players. The 500 low needs to typically close off further north in a flow like this imho and it has to be a powerful enough closed vort to make a push into that flow. It appears to me we have neither at H5. The confluence is not just a steering mechanism due to it's far south and east positioning either it also drains very dry air into the storm dissolving the good precipitation bands hence not amounting to much. In the map you are asking about you see a 989 surface low, well that's just not strong enough to combat this particular amount and location of confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Confluence can be a huge help or a killer depending on where you end up. The positive of a confluence zone is that it does not allow a storm to easily cut north and west, lake cutters have little confluence to contend with so they amplify and cut. The negative is obviously what we are dealing with today, think of it as a massive area of subsidence and a true wall that blocks moisture. If positioned close enough to the storm, you could see significant banding snow, but if your too far away then it could be dry, cloudy, flurries, or even some sun poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 From the position of the low it really ridiculous that we aren't seeing more precip. Making it to nyc proper. I wish someone would explain how confluence works and how it's stomping all over our wanna be snowstorm, it's very frustrating having cold (enough) air , good low position , still not delivering though, anybody out there to explain confluence.? Thanks. As air aloft comes from the SW near where our low is, it is combining with dry air aloft flowing from the NW around the block, which is positioned too far SW. The combination of the SW flow and NW flow causes sinking air, which is essentially what confluence is. That's why storms that occur when there are huge blocks have such sharp precip cutoffs, and why lows have to go around blocks instead of through them. The steering flow is going to turn from west to east soon around the low and it will head ENE, then due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Confluence can be a huge help or a killer depending on where you end up. The positive of a confluence zone is that it does not allow a storm to easily cut north and west, lake cutters have little confluence to contend with so they amplify and cut. The negative is obviously what we are dealing with today, think of it as a massive area of subsidence and a true wall that blocks moisture. If positioned close enough to the storm, you could see significant banding snow, but if your too far away then it could be dry, cloudy, flurries, or even some sun poking through. Right, EWR is up to 38 and raining now. TEB and Sussex are in the low 40s and cloudy. I'm at 33-34 with moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Yea still measuring about 1/2" on cold surfaces, precip and flake size are starting to increase.. http://ne1-attach.ymail.com/us.f1205.mail.yahoo.com/ya/securedownload?mid=2_0_0_1_8000368_APNVimIAADo4UVB%2Fhw3nilaOYS8&pid=1&fid=Inbox&inline=1&cred=xI_J2HDUyDHakPm57czVL0Wyk_PNckYBISTKeTUjgyhSBkk-&ts=1364230114&partner=ymail&sig=Aaya2fXhX70IUbe7VOJJlQ-- I see PNS Mt holly has 2.1" for Cream Ridge and 1.5 in Hamilton. Were you able to confirm these in the boro? Im in somerset at work with no one home to do measurements. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Also, light drizzle where I am in Midtown. Flakes try to work their way down occasionally but mostly it's just a light drizzle. Miserable afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 latest radar does show some northward movement, i still think someone on southern li/queens/brooklyn might get into some decent banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Also, light drizzle where I am in Midtown. Flakes try to work their way down occasionally but mostly it's just a light drizzle. Miserable afternoon. Terrible afternoon. 34 here with non sticking snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Brighter bands now firing up over LI sound and rotating into Weschester and SW CT. Lets see how far west they can make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 light snow in syosset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I see PNS Mt holly has 2.1" for Cream Ridge and 1.5 in Hamilton. Were you able to confirm these in the boro? Im in somerset at work with no one home to do measurements. Thanks. No, the precip in the morning was heaviest just to the south, i seen someone in jackson report about 2"..We are getting close to 3/4" but snow has really picked up.. I will add that i woke up late this morning, so some melting could of occurred.. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=dix&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Nothing here.. stupid confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Light snow now in Wantagh after having been mostly drizzle. Still a few drops mixing in and its far from sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I think that's it, snow has stopped, temps are rising and all of the precip is mostly offshore right now, it is what it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 suns poking out in piscataway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It's too bad this storm didn't start last night. The daytime heating is killing everything even with a temp of 34 with light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Looks like that's about as far north as it's going to get regarding the coastal. Starting to make the ENE slide OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 At 1:16 pm, NWS-Philly just reiterated the WWAdvisory for most of Central/North Jersey. Very surprised given trends so far. Nothing on the ground in northern Middlesex County and it's light rain 9 miles north of there in Rahway, where they've discontinued the WWA. Maybe I'm just missing something. URGENT -URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013...LATE MARCH SNOWSTORM IN PROGRESS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES....LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYINGAS SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF CAPE COD TONIGHT.NJZ008>010-012-013-015-PAZ105-106-260130-/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-130326T0400Z/MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN116 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDTTONIGHT...* LOCATIONS...BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA... AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HALF OF THAT SLUSHY AMOUNT ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ012&warncounty=NJC023&firewxzone=NJZ012&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Flurries have commenced at last in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Absolutely nothing happening in Florham Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 lolz....down to a trickle of flurries and any snow on the grass which was not much is melting away.......all the bluster and discussion of great pattern for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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