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mcd1753.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF PA...NY...VT...WRN NH...WRN MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221803Z - 222030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED...MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THE CU FIELD BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AGITATED ACROSS A BROAD AREA AHEAD OF A FRONT CROSSING
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AREAS OF INSOLATION ARE SUPPORTING DIABATIC SFC
HEATING AMIDST FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S ALLOWING FOR MLCINH TO BE SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PER RECENT MOSAIC RADAR/LIGHTNING
DATA.

WITH MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO HOLD AROUND 500-1500 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...A FEW INTENSE
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL LIKELY ENSUE AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OWING TO DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS. ADDITIONAL ASCENT WILL EMANATE FROM ASCENDING BRANCHES
OF LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS E OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND AROUND
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ALONG FRINGES OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECKS FROM NRN NY INTO NRN VT/NH. ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION THAT COULD LOCALLY/OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL
CLUSTERS/LEWP SEGMENTS.

HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT MORE PROMINENT MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS. THE LACK OF OVERLAP OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD PREVENT A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT
FROM EVOLVING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN NY INTO NRN
VT/NH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE N.
WHILE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
STABILIZATION OWING TO PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY PROVE
DELETERIOUS IN MAINTAINING A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE THREAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC FRONT LATER TODAY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2013

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I've got an ache to visit Pittsburgh soon.  I miss the crazy weather a great food.

Stop up in January or February and hope to catch some snow.

I think the older I get the more I enjoy tracking snow storms on the models. Sometimes more fun than the storm itself.

I am looking forward to November when things get cranking. 

I hope most people will be back this Winter.  :ee:  :snowwindow:  :shiver:  :snowman:

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Stop up in January or February and hope to catch some snow.

I think the older I get the more I enjoy tracking snow storms on the models. Sometimes more fun than the storm itself.

I am looking forward to November when things get cranking. 

I hope most people will be back this Winter.  :ee:  :snowwindow:  :shiver:  :snowman:

I was out there two winters ago and loved seeing snow and 17 degrees while it was partly cloudy and 33 in Lancaster.  As I get older I require more snow.

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Stop up in January or February and hope to catch some snow.

I think the older I get the more I enjoy tracking snow storms on the models. Sometimes more fun than the storm itself.

I am looking forward to November when things get cranking. 

I hope most people will be back this Winter.  :ee:  :snowwindow:  :shiver:  :snowman:

I'll definitly be around more. I'm not clever enough to come up with a funny saying somehow relating to fairweather fan in sports vs a snowy weather fan for storm tracking but you get the idea. :)

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PAC003-129-112015-

/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0228.130911T1931Z-130911T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

331 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

NORTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 327 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR FOX

CHAPEL...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FOX CHAPEL... PENN HILLS... SPRINGDALE...

NEW KENSINGTON... PLUM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID

WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO

THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 7968 4042 7971 4049 7990 4060 7988

TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 280DEG 6KT 4054 7985

$$

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Figures I'm at work so I look to miss the best of the line moving through but home looks to get hammered:

 

Statement as of 11:56 AM EDT on September 12, 2013

Expires 12:45 PM EDT on September 12, 2013

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northeastern Allegheny County in southwest Pennsylvania...
southwestern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...
southeastern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
northwestern Westmoreland County in southwest Pennsylvania...

* until 1245 PM EDT

* at 1155 am EDT... a severe thunderstorm was detected near
Lernerville... and was moving east at 35 mph. This storm is capable
of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Russellton... Springdale... Saxonburg...
New Kensington... Lernerville... Natrona Heights...
Sarver... Freeport... Leechburg...
Apollo... Vandergrift... Ford City...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Prepare for damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. Move into a
sturdy building and avoid windows.

Please report severe weather by calling... 412-262-1988... posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh facebook Page... or using twitter @nwspittsburgh.


Lat... Lon 4081 7946 4052 7949 4052 7992 4076 7985
time... Mot... loc 1556z 260deg 32kt 4070 7980

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  • 1 month later...

First Frost advisory of the season

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA735 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-PAZ020-021-029-031-WVZ001>004-200745-/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0008.131020T0700Z-131020T1300Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE735 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FROSTADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.* TIMING...AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM GENERALLY AFTER 3  AM...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER AREAS AND PLACES AWAY FROM THE  URBAN CORE OF PITTSBURGH AND WHEELING.* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED. LOCALIZED FREEZE  CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND ZANESVILLE AND WASHINGTON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOORPLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.&&$$
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Digger, even tho the S word is in the forecast, I dont see you needing to do any plowing in the coming week ;)

 

I don't see me having to do any for the foreseeable future. We got out of that business two winters ago. I still can't really say I look forward to it like you guys, but I'm a whole lot more relaxed about it now.   :)

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Light snow shower / flurries in Greensburg right now.  :snowing:  I still won't let myself look at the models yet.. to early, but it does get me geared up for tracking the first threat.

 

This is the earliest I remember seeing snow fall in the middle of the afternoon, although I'm sure there have been numerous times I just don't recall, or before my time.

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After last year’s rough winter, who doesn’t want to know how much snow we’re going to get and how coldicon1.png will it be this year?

 

KDKA Chief Meteorologist Jeff Verszyla has the answers in his annual winter weathericon1.png forecast.

 

First he expects an early winter chill setting in by late November and lasting through December.

 

But his forecast calls for no Snowmageddon this year. A repeat performance of last year’s record-setting snowfall is not in the cards.

 

In fact, expect only two snowfalls greater than five inches for the entire season.

 

Rather than paralyzing snowstorms, our winter will be characterized by sloppy winter storms. Systems cutting through the Ohioicon1.png Valley will likely bring more bouts of mixed precipitation like rain, snow, sleet and ice events.

 

Verszyla expects greater than normal temperature swings where big chills will be followed by big warm-ups, so the freeze-thaw cycle should make several rounds.

NOVEMBER FORECAST

Normal Temps/ Below Avg. Snowfall

Forecast High – 52…Avg High 51

Forecast Low – 35…Avg Low 34

Forecast Snow – 2.5″…Avg Snowfall – 3.1″

 

November will ease us into the season with normal temperatures, highs averaging 52 and lows 35. Snowfall will be below average at 2.5 inches.

 

DECEMBER FORECAST

Below Normal Temps / Above Normal Snowfall

Forecast High – 36…Avg High – 40

Forecast Low – 22…Avg Low – 25

Forecast Snow – 15.8″…Avg Snowfall – 6.9″

 

December should help you get into the holiday spirit. Temperatures will be below normal with highs averaging 36 and lows at 22 while snowfall will be above normal at 15.8 inches, making the chances of a white Christmas pretty good.

 

JANUARY FORECAST

Normal Temps / Above Normal Snowfall

Forecast High – 35…Avg High – 35

Forecast Low – 20…Avg Low – 20

Forecast Snow – 13.8″…Avg Snowfall – 12.3″

 

The first month of 2011 should be interesting with conflicting cold and mild air masses causing large temperature fluctuations.

 

However, in the end, the month should be fairly average with near normal temps, highs of 35 and a slightly above normal snow total of 13.8 inches.

 

FEBRUARY FORECAST

Above Normal Temps / Below Normal Snowfall

Forecast High – 41…Avg High – 39

Forecast Low – 25…Avg Low – 22

Forecast Snow – 4.1″…Avg Snow – 8.5″

 

It looks like this could be the year where Punxsutawney Phil gets a warm welcome. February looks completely different from a year ago with temperatures on the warmer side of normal at 41 for the average high and 25 for the low and snowfall of 4.1 inches – less than half the average.

 

MARCH FORECAST

Normal Temps / Normal Snowfall

Forecast High – 49…Avg High – 49

Forecast Low – 31…Avg Low 30

Forecast Snow 7.0″…Avg Snowfall – 7.9″

 

The significant seasonal swings will settle down in March. The late winter/early spring transition period will be absolutely average with high and temps of 49 and 31 respectively and snowfall of seven inches coming in near normal by the time the daffodils awake from their winter nap.

 

When we close the books on this winter, despite some wild swings, temperatures will finish pretty close to normal. Verszyla expects a total snowfall of 43.2 inches, which is 4.5 inches higher than normal and overall precipitation from more mixed events should be well above average. 

 

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