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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather


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At least for my area, looks like NWS is only forecasting 1-3 with rain and slop toward the end. Had a feeling that would be the case. The low is just going to track too far north before the transfer. Of course, a dry slot is also a possibility with the low getting that close to us. That'll cut the totals down a little in my area. Maybe you guys to the north will hang on to the snow longer and get better totals.

Fully expecting 1 inch before the changeover and then another inch after the change back to snow.  One thing I won't buy into is any last minute changes from the models showing a lot more snow esp for SoAGC.  I think all 3 of our storms so far this year have shown last minute snow increase only to have that not verify.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1051 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

PAZ021-073-WVZ001-140000-

/O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0033.131214T0600Z-131215T0600Z/

ALLEGHENY-WESTMORELAND-HANCOCK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...GREENSBURG...

LATROBE...WEIRTON

1051 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM

EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY

TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* SNOW BEGINNING...AROUND 1 TO 3 AM ALONG THE OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA

BORDER...AND 4 TO 6 AM IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* SNOW ENDING...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST

LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY ENDING AS

DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW

COVERED ROADS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND

LIMITED VISIBILITY. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS

PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

$$

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LOL, every county in PA is under a watch or advisory except extreme SW and SE PA. I remember living in Washington County near the Mon. River watching WAA come up the river valley and change me to rain while posters in the northern burbs of Pittsburgh had heavy snow and got double what I got.

 

Don't remind me.  It's depressing.  Looking like 1-2" here in wonderful Fayette County.

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LOL, every county in PA is under a watch or advisory except extreme SW and SE PA. I remember living in Washington County near the Mon. River watching WAA come up the river valley and change me to rain while posters in the northern burbs of Pittsburgh had heavy snow and got double what I got.

 

This is my nightmare living in Morgantown presently.  Luckily I'll be in the city tomorrow so hopefully I won't have to watch it rain with disappointment (too much, anyway).  Sadly we typically get 25% of what is predicted by the local Pitt NWS.

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This is my nightmare living in Morgantown presently.  Luckily I'll be in the city tomorrow so hopefully I won't have to watch it rain with disappointment (too much, anyway).  Sadly we typically get 25% of what is predicted by the local Pitt NWS.

I remember when I was much younger, I believe 3rd or 4th grade (I grew up in the Freeport area) and we had a storm were the warm tongue reared its ugly head, of course at the time I had no clue about any weather phenomon other than seeing a big L on the weather map go up east of the mountains. Anyways, we were forecasted 6-10 inches or something but it turned to sleet and rain and we only ended up with like 4-6ish and I was whining about it and my Mom overheard at which point she decided to interject that she had just gotten off the phone with a friend from Morgantown and they had about a half inch of snow and it has been raining most of the afternoon. I just remember envisioning Morgantown as some Hell on Earth for anyone who wanted snow, but now from your posts I garner I was not that far off! ;)

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Track of 850 hPa low concerns me for p-type.  Am expecting a changeover in the metro area Saturday afternoon.  But...precip should be winding down during that period, so shouldn't lose much precip to mix/rain.

This setup definilty has some high bust potential. NWS talks about the track as well in this snipet from the latest discussion:

 

WHAT MAKES THIS SYSTEM INTRIGUING IS THE FACT THAT A

SFC CYCLONE ALBEIT WEAK IS PROJECTED TO CROSS NW OF PIT AND WE STILL

WILL SEE SNOW. THIS EITHER REFLECTS THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD DOME

IN PLACE...OR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT RESOLVING STRENGTH OF WARM

WEDGE ON WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

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I do like that the discussion also depicts the high gradient that normally exists in allegheny and westmoreland counties. Grew up in northern westmoreland and will now get to see the same effect in the north hills. This is going to be a great one watch. This was going to be a fairly light to moderate event anyway so getting 4 or 5 inches out of this would be amazing. Keeping my fingers crossed.

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Track of 850 hPa low concerns me for p-type.  Am expecting a changeover in the metro area Saturday afternoon.  But...precip should be winding down during that period, so shouldn't lose much precip to mix/rain.

I agree with you. We can still do good with these events even it changes over but after the heavy precip is gone. I remember a storm around Valentines day (probably back around 2007 or so) We started snowing mid morning and it got heavy and we picked up a quick 6 or 7 inches and then it changed to a drizzle late in the day. I know some of our old time posters will remember. 

 

 

Edit:

It was Feb 13th 2007. This storm in 2007 had more precip and was stronger. Here is some data with the current conditions on that day.

 

4AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 29 23 78 NE10 30.14F WCI 20

5AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 27 24 89 NE8 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 19

6AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 24 92 N9 30.13F VSB 1/2 WCI 17

7AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 16

8AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 22 84 NE9 30.14S VSB 1 WCI 17

9AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14S VSB 1/2 WCI 16

10AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 23 92 NE12 30.11F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

11AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE13 30.08F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

12PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE15 30.03F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

1PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 E15G23 30.00F VSB 1/2 WCI 13

2PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE17 29.95F VSB 1/2 WCI 12

3PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 25 21 85 NE14 29.92F VSB 1 WCI 13

4PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 25 22 88 E15G22 29.86F WCI 13

5PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 26 22 84 E14 29.84F WCI 14

6PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 27 24 89 E14 29.80F WCI 16

7PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 27 24 89 E9 29.78F WCI 18

8PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 28 25 88 E12 29.73F WCI 18

9PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 29 27 92 E12 29.71F WCI 19

10PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.66F WCI 22

11PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.63F WCI 22

12AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 E7 29.60F WCI 24

1AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.58F WCI 24

2AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.55F WCI 24

3AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.54F WCI 24

4AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ DRZL 31 29 92 NE7 

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This setup definilty has some high bust potential. NWS talks about the track as well in this snipet from the latest discussion:

 

WHAT MAKES THIS SYSTEM INTRIGUING IS THE FACT THAT A

SFC CYCLONE ALBEIT WEAK IS PROJECTED TO CROSS NW OF PIT AND WE STILL

WILL SEE SNOW. THIS EITHER REFLECTS THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD DOME

IN PLACE...OR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT RESOLVING STRENGTH OF WARM

WEDGE ON WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

 

Unfortunately it's usually the latter.

 

That said, it may mostly decay so it may not be the classic situation

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I agree with you. We can still do good with these events even it changes over but after the heavy precip is gone. I remember a storm around Valentines day (probably back around 2007 or so) We started snowing mid morning and it got heavy and we picked up a quick 6 or 7 inches and then it changed to a drizzle late in the day. I know some of our old time posters will remember. 

 

 

Edit:

It was Feb 13th 2007. This storm in 2007 had more precip and was stronger. Here is some data with the current conditions on that day.

 

4AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 29 23 78 NE10 30.14F WCI 20

5AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 27 24 89 NE8 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 19

6AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 24 92 N9 30.13F VSB 1/2 WCI 17

7AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 16

8AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 22 84 NE9 30.14S VSB 1 WCI 17

9AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14S VSB 1/2 WCI 16

10AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 23 92 NE12 30.11F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

11AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE13 30.08F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

12PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE15 30.03F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

1PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 E15G23 30.00F VSB 1/2 WCI 13

2PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE17 29.95F VSB 1/2 WCI 12

3PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 25 21 85 NE14 29.92F VSB 1 WCI 13

4PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 25 22 88 E15G22 29.86F WCI 13

5PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 26 22 84 E14 29.84F WCI 14

6PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 27 24 89 E14 29.80F WCI 16

7PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 27 24 89 E9 29.78F WCI 18

8PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 28 25 88 E12 29.73F WCI 18

9PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 29 27 92 E12 29.71F WCI 19

10PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.66F WCI 22

11PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.63F WCI 22

12AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 E7 29.60F WCI 24

1AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.58F WCI 24

2AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.55F WCI 24

3AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.54F WCI 24

4AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ DRZL 31 29 92 NE7 

Yeah that scenario has happened where pretty much everything falls as snow then there is a bit of freezing drizzle at the end. I'd sign up for it.

 

The Feb '07 was in fact a much bigger storm though where there was a ton of freezing rain after. I believe it was a notorious sleet fest on in central and eastern PA

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Yeah that scenario has happened where pretty much everything falls as snow then there is a bit of freezing drizzle at the end. I'd sign up for it.

 

The Feb '07 was in fact a much bigger storm though where there was a ton of freezing rain after. I believe it was a notorious sleet fest on in central and eastern PA

We got a foot of snow then 1/2" of sleet then another 2".

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Yeah that scenario has happened where pretty much everything falls as snow then there is a bit of freezing drizzle at the end. I'd sign up for it.

 

The Feb '07 was in fact a much bigger storm though where there was a ton of freezing rain after. I believe it was a notorious sleet fest on in central and eastern PA

Yeah I remember that storm well. It was probably one of the bigger ZR events as you mentioned in terms of ice accreation. I remember the University closed early on the 13th and was completely closed the 14th. Late morning on the 14th the zr went back to a moderate snow.

 

Here is a pretty low res photo of my car from a cell phone camera from the 15th. It took about a half-hour to to get the ice off the door so I could get in the car. I then opened the rest of the doors from the inside!

post-328-0-77846700-1386966215_thumb.jpg

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Yeah I remember that storm well. It was probably one of the bigger ZR events as you mentioned in terms of ice accreation. I remember the University closed early on the 13th and was completely closed the 14th. Late morning on the 14th the zr went back to a moderate snow.

 

Here is a pretty low res photo of my car from a cell phone camera from the 15th. It took about a half-hour to to get the ice off the door so I could get in the car. I then opened the rest of the doors from the inside!

attachicon.gif02-15-07_1659.jpg

 

I think we wound up with like 7" of snow and well over .25" of frz. So I remember it being an impressive storm as it basically verified a WSW in both snow and ice. That said, that was kind of directly in between '03 and '10, so we were all very disappointed because we were starving for a "big" one. It was something like 5.5" front end and just under 2" back end and a pile of ice in between. I think that the original forecast was like 8-12" with some ice in between, so not horrible, just not what we were hoping.

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I agree with you. We can still do good with these events even it changes over but after the heavy precip is gone. I remember a storm around Valentines day (probably back around 2007 or so) We started snowing mid morning and it got heavy and we picked up a quick 6 or 7 inches and then it changed to a drizzle late in the day. I know some of our old time posters will remember. 

 

 

Edit:

It was Feb 13th 2007. This storm in 2007 had more precip and was stronger. Here is some data with the current conditions on that day.

 

4AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 29 23 78 NE10 30.14F WCI 20

5AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 27 24 89 NE8 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 19

6AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 24 92 N9 30.13F VSB 1/2 WCI 17

7AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 16

8AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 22 84 NE9 30.14S VSB 1 WCI 17

9AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14S VSB 1/2 WCI 16

10AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 23 92 NE12 30.11F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

11AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE13 30.08F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

12PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE15 30.03F VSB 1/2 WCI 14

1PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 E15G23 30.00F VSB 1/2 WCI 13

2PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE17 29.95F VSB 1/2 WCI 12

3PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 25 21 85 NE14 29.92F VSB 1 WCI 13

4PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 25 22 88 E15G22 29.86F WCI 13

5PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 26 22 84 E14 29.84F WCI 14

6PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 27 24 89 E14 29.80F WCI 16

7PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 27 24 89 E9 29.78F WCI 18

8PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 28 25 88 E12 29.73F WCI 18

9PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 29 27 92 E12 29.71F WCI 19

10PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.66F WCI 22

11PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.63F WCI 22

12AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 E7 29.60F WCI 24

1AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.58F WCI 24

2AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.55F WCI 24

3AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.54F WCI 24

4AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ DRZL 31 29 92 NE7 

I remember that storm vividly..... We were let out of work in the worst part of that storm and on my way home from working in Southpointe, I totaled my Hyundai Santa Fe.  I slid into the oncoming lane and got t-boned by a Durango. 

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I agree with you. We can still do good with these events even it changes over but after the heavy precip is gone. I remember a storm around Valentines day (probably back around 2007 or so) We started snowing mid morning and it got heavy and we picked up a quick 6 or 7 inches and then it changed to a drizzle late in the day. I know some of our old time posters will remember.   Edit:It was Feb 13th 2007. This storm in 2007 had more precip and was stronger. Here is some data with the current conditions on that day. 4AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 29 23 78 NE10 30.14F WCI 205AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 27 24 89 NE8 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 196AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 24 92 N9 30.13F VSB 1/2 WCI 177AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14R VSB 1 WCI 168AM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 26 22 84 NE9 30.14S VSB 1 WCI 179AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE12 30.14S VSB 1/2 WCI 1610AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 23 92 NE12 30.11F VSB 1/2 WCI 1411AM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE13 30.08F VSB 1/2 WCI 1412PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 26 23 88 NE15 30.03F VSB 1/2 WCI 141PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 E15G23 30.00F VSB 1/2 WCI 132PM EST FEB 13 2007 SNOW 25 22 88 NE17 29.95F VSB 1/2 WCI 123PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGT SNOW 25 21 85 NE14 29.92F VSB 1 WCI 134PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 25 22 88 E15G22 29.86F WCI 135PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 26 22 84 E14 29.84F WCI 146PM EST FEB 13 2007 LGTSLEET 27 24 89 E14 29.80F WCI 167PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 27 24 89 E9 29.78F WCI 188PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 28 25 88 E12 29.73F WCI 189PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 29 27 92 E12 29.71F WCI 1910PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.66F WCI 2211PM EST FEB 13 2007 FRZ RAIN 30 28 92 E8 29.63F WCI 2212AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 E7 29.60F WCI 241AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.58F WCI 242AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.55F WCI 243AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ RAIN 31 29 92 NE7 29.54F WCI 244AM EST FEB 14 2007 FRZ DRZL 31 29 92 NE7

I remember that storm because I went to the Pens game the very next day. Nearly broke my neck walking down those metal steps they have from the upper level parking lot to the lower level lot.

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