ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 with this cold air I wonder how long the lakes will remain "liquid".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i know it looks like a mess but I think it looks like a 2-4 inch event with some mixing. Not a strong storm but I would take an off and on snowy Saturday with lake effect on Sunday. Still time to change. I could see 2-4, so long as it doesn't get to weak and strung out that all the moisture goes by to the South. The only thing I don't like about how things have played out over the past couple events is that it seems to warm up just enough to melt the snow pack in between events. If it would stay cold enough that we could keep adding all these 1-3 & 2-4 events up it would make for snow on the ground you can actually do something with. I admit though this winter thus far has been nothing to complain about, just me nit picking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 with this cold air I wonder how long the lakes will remain "liquid".... Probably not long. This doesn't seem like a winter where we will be getting LES in late January like some years. We haven't had a favorable trajectory off lakes very much this winter for our area but it looks like a very short window for some light LES could open tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 18z came in a little more south and a little colder. Still not a lot of qpf but I still think we are looking at a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snowfall with maybe some mixing late Saturday but we may stay mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Have you looked into the system after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Getting some light snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Getting some light snow now. Was just out. Nice light snow globe Christmas snow falling. Just a dusting but you can see the moon. It is darn cold though. Took out the dog and had to carry him back. The old paws got cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So is this looking like this a bust for some of the meteorologists forecasts so far. It doesn't look like we torch in January. As we get closer to the next month, the models flip to cold such as what we saw with December. I wonder if this will be a good old fashioned winter like my grandpa used to talk about. Back when it would be cold enough to freeze your spit and it snowed sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Canadian is looking better. Still on the edge but a little further south and more snow. Nam is warm and GFS is colder. Hopefully tomorrow we will see them come together. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So is it safe to say around 2-4 saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So is it safe to say around 2-4 saturday? It's looking that way now. Both the 00z and 06z GFS had between .4 and .5 total qpf. 06z is colder than 00z, but ratios aren't the best. If this ends up a bit colder, that should bump ratios up too so we could even see 3-5. Lets see if 12z today continues the cooling trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's looking that way now. Both the 00z and 06z GFS had between .4 and .5 total qpf. 06z is colder than 00z, but ratios aren't the best. If this ends up a bit colder, that should bump ratios up too so we could even see 3-5. Lets see if 12z today continues the cooling trend. 12Z Nam is even colder. Precip about the same so I think you are right. 2-4 in most areas with a 3-5 in some. I also think the ice and rain are slowly going away and will be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accuweather has us for 3-6. Id say thats a safe call. Hopefully this trends colder so we don't have to deal with ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GFS looking good. Looks to still show about .4-.5 for much of the area while probably being cool enough for all frozen. If this solution holds being in the 3-6 range is a reasonable call I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Henry M has us on the border of c-3 and 3-6. It seems like all the precip comes as snow. Idk this will be another one to watch especially with two weeks before Christmas, and all the shoppers who will be out and about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Jon Burnett said 2-4 on the noon news and he said thats being conservative, we could see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Not to be the pessimistic one here but more times than not, the models tend to underestimate that dreaded "warm tongue" that we always seem to have issues with in this area, especially the southern communities. The NWS brings it up in their discussion too. They think the NAM is too warm and the GFS is too cold, but they kind of lean more toward the NAM with the SREF model. No matter what, we'll see some accumulation from this but mixing or even a changeover in some areas may cut down totals once again. This isn't a very strong system to begin with so I think the only way we see 3-6 out of it is if we get lucky and that rain/snow line stays to the south. May be yet another case of Allegheny County being the dividing line with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Not to be the pessimistic one here but more times than not, the models tend to underestimate that dreaded "warm tongue" that we always seem to have issues with in this area, especially the southern communities. The NWS brings it up in their discussion too. They think the NAM is too warm and the GFS is too cold, but they kind of lean more toward the NAM with the SREF model. No matter what, we'll see some accumulation from this but mixing or even a changeover in some areas may cut down totals once again. This isn't a very strong system to begin with so I think the only way we see 3-6 out of it is if we get lucky and that rain/snow line stays to the south. May be yet another case of Allegheny County being the dividing line with that. I saw that discussion where they talk about the Nam. this was before the 12z Nam came in. I think that will change with the next update as the Nam came in colder. The Canadian, which has done a good job with these last few events draws the mix line at the Allegheny/Washington County line so I think Bethel Park will still be in the gray area but the trend is our friend. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA Are you ready for the next round of snow? Just think, winter has not even officially started yet! The image below details the snow forecast for late Friday night and Saturday. Snow will begin while most are sleeping and continue for much of the day. If rain mixes in sooner than forecast, amounts will be less across parts of southwestern PA, southeastern OH, and northern WV. We will keep you posted on the latest winter weather event to affect our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It seems our biggest snow enemy so far this year, has been dry air/dry slot. The last AFD mentions a possible dry slot again. I'll probably be wrong, but I think a possible dry slot will be more of an issue than temps on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is gonna be a case of nowcasting. Theres no way we can predict the exact location of the dry slot and where the rain/snow line is. I will continue to look at the models, but I think this will be a wait and see approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It seems our biggest snow enemy so far this year, has been dry air/dry slot. The last AFD mentions a possible dry slot again. I'll probably be wrong, but I think a possible dry slot will be more of an issue than temps on Saturday. I agree, the trend this winter has been for the cold air to to beat out the warm air. We want that low to scoot to the south of us to keep the dry slot at bay and it will help with the warm air threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah I'm not too confident in this system. Too many "what ifs." In my experience, the what-ifs always come back to get you. If the ideal setup is going to happen, chances are very high it will be predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I tweeted Bernie Rayno he thinks we see all snow and miss the second system. no all snow....you will miss the second system...2-4/3-6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam is colder and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam is colder and wetter Hopefully that not just the NAM being the NAM and overdoing precip and the rest of the models follow suite tonight! NWS doesn't seem very impressed at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lets see if the GFS will follow suit and is it to early to tell if we could see any meso bands? Im more interested in extremely heavy snowfall than depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nam is colder and wetter Hopefully that not just the NAM being the NAM and overdoing precip and the rest of the models follow suite tonight! NWS doesn't seem very impressed at the moment. Looks like the nam wants to keep the storm unwound for the most part. That's not so bad, considering what the 850 vort is trying to do. Pretty awesome to be tracking another storm so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At least for my area, looks like NWS is only forecasting 1-3 with rain and slop toward the end. Had a feeling that would be the case. The low is just going to track too far north before the transfer. Of course, a dry slot is also a possibility with the low getting that close to us. That'll cut the totals down a little in my area. Maybe you guys to the north will hang on to the snow longer and get better totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 At least for my area, looks like NWS is only forecasting 1-3 with rain and slop toward the end. Had a feeling that would be the case. The low is just going to track too far north before the transfer. Of course, a dry slot is also a possibility with the low getting that close to us. That'll cut the totals down a little in my area. Maybe you guys to the north will hang on to the snow longer and get better totals. Yeah, if that warm tongue is strong enough the typical SWPA screw zone will be likely, especially if you are South of the city. This advisory map says it all, warnings and advisories to the North, East, & West but we get snow followed by rain and slop. Same old song and dance, watching the radar hoping the mix stays to your south. It does seem that guidance wants to keep surface temps below freezing so that should be interesting to watch. Also, at least on the GFS, it seems like the dry slot may be to our SE, so that could help things out as well if we manage to stay all frozen. Pretty amazing start the the season thus far whatever the outcome of this system, as tracking is half the fun anyways. Not to get to far ahead of ourselves here, but if the GFS is correct, that blinding rain storm next weekend will pretty much obliterate what falls this weekend anyways I think, so optimism for a white Christmas is waining. My hope is that the lakes cutter shown follows what seems to be the trend in the pattern of storms becoming less wound up and further SE as we apprach. Either way the storm parade continues. I feel like I may go into some sort of withdrawl syndrome if we get a stretch of 5 days without a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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