RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GFS has the weekend storm currently moving across and wrapping up over the New Jersey Coast. It throws good snows back over Western Pa and Ohio but precip typ could be an issue. We are in that mix area too. Still too early as this storm's path will go back and forth. At least it has a storm and we will have to wait and see if the other models have it too. Yeah, on the GFS at least it has been in a different location on almost every run. Just yesterday it was pretty far east so at this point pretty much any soltuion from lakes cutter to off the coast are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah, on the GFS at least it has been in a different location on almost every run. Just yesterday it was pretty far east so at this point pretty much any soltuion from lakes cutter to off the coast are possible. Check out the latest GGEM. It brings the rain/snow line practically through Allegheny County again. This far out that is probably good because it most likely won't happen. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Also I know a lot of people don't like JB but I read on his twitter that he thinks the weekend storm is too far north. With the cold air coming in it should move the storm south (which would benefit us and give us all snow) Like I said before way too early but it looks like another busy week of watching the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 BTW NWS Pit has now changed tomorrow to 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 These little 1-2 inch storms remind me somewhat of last year. Where it snowed atleast everyday, sometimes being flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA Ready for more winter weather? The graphic below details amounts, timing, and impacts. If we had an odd range map (e.g. 1-3", 3-5", etc) that would be better to fully capture snowfall amounts, but in the mean time take an inch off each end of the range for forecast snow amounts (e.g. 2-4" would be 1-3"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wait when did the amounts get bumped up to 2-4?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wait when did the amounts get bumped up to 2-4?? That map is deceiving. We are more likely to get 1-3 and southern counties 3-5. This is the wording that was attached to the map. Ready for more winter weather? The graphic below details amounts, timing, and impacts. If we had an odd range map (e.g. 1-3", 3-5", etc) that would be better to fully capture snowfall amounts, but in the mean time take an inch off each end of the range for forecast snow amounts (e.g. 2-4" would be 1-3"). Arctic Air will arrive midweek. Temperatures will feel like they are in the single digits for much of the area at dawn Wednesday, with below zero wind chills forecast for locations north of Pittsburgh and in the mountains of West Virginia and western Maryland that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 We're going to be on the very northwestern fringe of the precip with this one. Probably very light snow only accumulating an inch or two at best and mainly to the south and east. I'm thinking around an inch in Allegheny county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Bethel Park might be the good zone then.....almost washington county.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA Ready for more winter weather? The graphic below details amounts, timing, and impacts. If we had an odd range map (e.g. 1-3", 3-5", etc) that would be better to fully capture snowfall amounts, but in the mean time take an inch off each end of the range for forecast snow amounts (e.g. 2-4" would be 1-3"). Wait, what? They can't use odd numbers?? Very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Bethel Park might be the good zone then.....almost washington county.... The more South and East the better, so it can't hurt. I'm expecting 1 inch of fluff in my area but hoping for 2. It seems like this winter we have either been to far SE or to far NW to really cash in. Its been a very active period so I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA Ready for more winter weather? The graphic below details amounts, timing, and impacts. If we had an odd range map (e.g. 1-3", 3-5", etc) that would be better to fully capture snowfall amounts, but in the mean time take an inch off each end of the range for forecast snow amounts (e.g. 2-4" would be 1-3"). Wait, what? They can't use odd numbers?? Very odd NWS said they are working on a new map which should include odd number accumulation totals for future storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The more South and East the better, so it can't hurt. I'm expecting 1 inch of fluff in my area but hoping for 2. It seems like this winter we have either been to far SE or to far NW to really cash in. Its been a very active period so I can't complain. yea exactly....Im gonna be in deep creek this weekend and hoping for a little event friday or saturday!..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Still a long way out but is it me or does Western PA look like it is in a dry slot compared to the rest of the mid atlantic and northeast on the snow models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Im referring to this map and the Gfs clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Still a long way out but is it me or does Western PA look like it is in a dry slot compared to the rest of the mid atlantic and northeast on the snow models? Yeah the precipitation distribution isn't worth worrying about this far out, but I would guess from looking at the 18z GFS that we get caught in the dry slot of the storm this weekend hence the disparity. That storm almost looks like a double barrel low, and we are in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah the precipitation distribution isn't worth worrying about this far out, but I would guess from looking at the 18z GFS that we get caught in the dry slot of the storm this weekend hence the disparity. That storm almost looks like a double barrel low, and we are in the dry slot. Yeah, looking at the GFS, the low tracks right toward us and then transfers it's energy to a coastal low. Bad setup for us obviously. We get dry slotted and it's too warm of a setup for snow with the initial low anyway. I'm sure this will change a bunch of times between now and then so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MccandlessWXPSU Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We had this set up a few years ago. It was highly dependent on how quick the energy transferred to the low. I believe we didn't fare too poorly but those to our south and east had some amazing deform bands and thundersnow! I would much rather be in the dry slot this many days away than the sweet spot. Considering how interesting things have been so far I'm sure his one will test our best forecasting skills and will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So do we want to see a faster and stronger transfer or the energy being held longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So do we want to see a faster and stronger transfer or the energy being held longer. Again, using the 18z GFS as our reference point, you want that primary low to transfer to the coast faster. We can do well with Miller Bs if the primary dies off quickly before pumping the upper levels with warm air, and also keep us out of the dry slot the often develops when the secondary starts to absorb the energy from the primary storm. It also helps if the secondary takes a more inland track rather than redeveloping off shore. VD 2007 is an example of a good miller B, we got a good front end thump as the primary approached, and a strong cold high to the north. We did change over to sleet and zr for awhile, but changed back to snow several hours later as the secondary took over. I'm sure there are some better examples where we maybe even stayed all snow but that storm always comes to mind when I think of high impact Miller B in recent history. Verbatim, its a double barrel low (2 distinct areas of low pressure) all the way up into new England. That scenario is unlikely in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wasn't the 2010 storm a Miller B with the low transfer off the Delmarva coast? We did quite well with that storm. I have seen first hand how storms can trend slowly but surely to benefit us, so lets see what the models pump out tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Figured I post this since it trended 50 or so miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wasn't the 2010 storm a Miller B with the low transfer off the Delmarva coast? We did quite well with that storm. I have seen first hand how storms can trend slowly but surely to benefit us, so lets see what the models pump out tonight... Yeah, I believe it was, and as perfect as could be. Primary rode up into the ov, and transferred early enough to keep us all snow. The secondary was far enough west to keep us in heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm probably the only one up seeing the radar, but it doesn't look good for us right now. The dry slot is heading right for us. I was looking at it earlier and wondering if this was going to be a problem. I'm thinking that we see very little snow at this point unless that dry slot somehow fills back in before it gets to us. I said around an inch with my call earlier. I'm thinking that might be generous right now. Maybe an inch or less would be a better call at this point. Hope I'm wrong. Folks to our east will get the better amounts once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Heaviest snow I've seen so far this year. Got a good inch two over the past hour and a half. Definitely didn't see this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA545 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013...SNOW IS CAUSING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...OHZ049-050-059-PAZ014-020>023-029-073-WVZ001>004-101500-/O.EXB.KPBZ.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-131210T1500Z/HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-BELMONT-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE545 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM ESTTHIS MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...DAYBREAK UNTIL 9 AM.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOWCOVERED ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Be careful guys, my brother just wrecked and he has all wheel drive. Im nervous, I have a final and probably need to leave an hour or so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 yea nice dusting here and no delays except canon mac....nothing for bethel but the roads here are covered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 a quick inch here. Just shoveled the driveway. Very fluffy snow. Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Made it to class, but the roads are not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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